Tyler Reddick’s incredible run came to an end last week at Phoenix Raceway. While he didn’t win his fourth straight race to start the 2026 season, he still had a good run at a track he typically doesn’t excel at. With a couple high tire wear intermediate tracks on the horizon, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go to victory lane again either this weekend or next.

Ryan Blaney earned the win at Phoenix a week ago. Team Penske is always good at that track. While his teammates wrecked out, Blaney took the 12-car to victory lane. Can he go back-to-back at Las Vegas this weekend? It’s certainly possible, especially when a Penske affiliate driver (Josh Berry) won this race a year ago.

We have all your coverage this weekend with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. And after a year away, we’re bringing back the NASCAR DFS Show to offer up some analysis on every race in under 30 minutes each week. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies for the Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube!

 

 

 

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Sin City is the host for the fifth race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series race and it’s the first of the intermediate tracks on the schedule for this year. Vegas is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with about 20 degrees of banking in the turns. But this surface continues to wear and get older. The track hasn’t been paved since 2007. So across nearly 20 years of racing and desert winds/sand weathering the surface over time, we tend to see more and more tire wear at this track.

Based on the trends table above, we should expect most of the win equity to come from inside the top 10 and the table highlights that roughly 78% of the laps led also come from inside the top 10. Strangely enough, the last three winners at Vegas (Denny Hamlin, Josh Berry, and Joey Logano) have only led a combined 33 laps while combining for 29.4 dominator points. I don’t want to treat that as scripture. All that tells me is that perhaps they had the right strategy late in stage three of their respective races, but I do think it’s fascinating the last three winners here haven’t been the primary dominators.

Overall, the trends above aren’t too shocking for a high-speed intermediate track. We will have movers, there will likely be some big dominators, and we should see some chaos as well given the tire wear narrative.

Additionally, we want to keep an eye on the new Chevrolet body once again. It’s still early in the year and I’m sure the teams are trying to properly dial the setups in with the new body. But we’ve seen some Chevy drivers dominate here in the past so let’s take a good look at the scoring details and the driver pool for our NASCAR DFS Pennzoil 400 picks!

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

As we start to dig into lineup construction with our NASCAR DFS Pennzoil 400 picks, it’s clear that there’s an overwhelming advantage to getting exposure to the front row. Based on the tables above, it’s clear there’s an advantage to playing drivers out front. Clean air is king and the front row has a path to easy dominator points.

Now we should at least acknowledge a big reason for this is that this five-race sample size includes two wins from Kyle Larson where he started P2, led 100+ laps in each race, and returned over 120 dominator points combined between both races.

But we’ve also seen Christopher Bell run very well from the front row as well. In the 2024 playoffs Bell started on the pole, finished as the runner-up to Joey Logano, and posted over 70 dominator points because he led 155 laps. In the 2023 playoffs Bell (again on the pole), finished as the runner-up with almost 33 dominator points with 61 laps led.

Similar to last week, we likely want exposure to drivers on the front row. We know they’ll have win equity and clean air to collect dominator points. From there we’ll identify a second or third dominator with some drivers that can help our NASCAR DFS lineups with position differential.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube

 

NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Kyle Larson (Starting P5) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Kyle Larson was a driver I had written up long before practice and qualifying. Last week’s top three finish isn’t indicative of how bad the car was. For most of the race he was hardly a top 10 car at Phoenix. Even William Byron had his struggles. But good teams make adjustments and get better through the race. Despite having just 0.45 dominator points a week ago, when it mattered most the team was in contention and they finished third.

Larson now comes to a track (and track type) that he thrives at. It’s a moderate-to-high tire wear track where Larson has an average finish of 4.3 over the last six races here. And in those six races here he’s finished first or second in four of them with 60+ laps in five-of-six races.

Now even though he is the defending Cup Series champion, we can’t deny the fact that 2025 wasn’t his best season. But he was still good on the most comparable tracks. His last win was at Kansas about 10 months ago. But he also won at Homestead and he was elite in both Phoenix races. The only question mark surrounding Larson is with regard to the new Chevy body. But I’m assuming he’s going to be locked in and in position to once again have another really strong race at Vegas.

Christopher Bell (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500

In the DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends section, we highlighted Larson and Bell and I’m given an opportunity to elaborate on both in the player pool. Bell hasn’t won here in the Cup Series, but he’s had some very strong performances here, albeit they’ve come in the playoffs.

He’s finished second or third in three straight playoff races at Vegas and he hasn’t led a lap in a spring Vegas race since 2022 when he started on the pole in one of the earliest races of the NextGen era. But I’m still comfortable mentioning him. Like Larson, I’m writing Bell up prior to practice and qualifying because I do think he’s going to qualify very well (spoiler alert: he did).

Bell is coming off a week where he arguably had the best car at Phoenix. Even Ryan Blaney, who won last week’s race, acknowledged that the 20-car was the best on the track. But Bell and his camp don’t have to worry about the question marks of a new body like the Chevys. Bell was solid at the intermediates in 2025 even if he lacked in the dominator department. He still finished top three at Darlington-1, Kansas-1, Kansas-2, and Vegas-2. If he can get over the hump of playing second fiddle to Kyle Larson, he can certainly have a huge day for our NASCAR DFS lineups.

Denny Hamlin (Starting P2) – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $12,000

Hamlin won the pole for this race back in the playoffs last year and he managed to win the race. But as we mentioned up above, he didn’t have the greatest car. Despite winning from the pole he only led nine laps, but a win is a win at the end of the day.

Hamlin used to dominate at Vegas prior to the NextGen era. In the playoff races in 2020 and 2021, he led 100+ laps in both races. But Hamlin did collect wins at intermediates like Darlington and Michigan last season while he also finished as the runner-up in the playoff race at Kansas.

But the Toyotas absolutely dominated practice and qualifying today. They showed great speed and will occupy the starting spots for the first two rows. Getting exposure to at least one driver from the front row is a good start to some builds.

Tyler Reddick (Starting P7) – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $12,500

One Toyota driver who may go just a little bit overlooked is Tyler Reddick. And that seems silly to say considering he won the first three races of the year. But these next two races are strangely right up his alley. Vegas hasn’t historically been his best track. However, he’s led laps here in the past and even finished as the runner-up in this race two years ago.

We also tend to upgrade Reddick a little more when we come to tracks with tire wear. He’s certainly going to be in play next week at Darlington and with each passing year, Vegas becomes more and more of a tire wear track. So why not give him a shot when the Toyota camp seems to have this weekend’s setup really dialed in? Even his teammate, Bubba Wallace, managed to qualify on the second row.

Reddick probably works better as a secondary dominator alongside the likes of Larson/Bell/Hamlin but he still offers upside and might just be flying a bit under-the-radar heading into Sunday’s race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Joey Logano (Starting P21) – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $10,000

DraftKings greatly missed the target when pricing some drivers this weekend so we’re going to take advantage. Joey Logano likely won’t have the best car. But he should still be capable of having a top 10 day and track history is definitely on his side.

In 21 races at Vegas since 2012, Logano has finished worse than 14th just once. In that span he’s won here four times including twice in the NextGen era. In four of his last five races, he’s finished 12th or better. To put it simply, he should move up from this starting spot. And if he keeps the car clean, he can pay off his price tag that way.

Logano is a driver that should be priced in the low $9,000 range on DraftKings. But because of last week’s wreck after earning the pole, the scoring average is dragged down and he’s surprisingly just $8,700 on DraftKings. A top 10 finish returns 45 points. A top five result would yield 55 fantasy points. And those estimates don’t even account for a few dominator points he could accumulate along the way.

Ross Chastain (Starting P17) – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $10,500

Chastain doesn’t feel like as much of a risk this week because of his starting spot of P17. And truthfully, this has been one of his best tracks since the start of 2023. In that span his 9.3 average finish is actually his personal best among all tracks and it’s second among active drivers behind Kyle Larson (4.3).

Chastain doesn’t have a win here, but he has previously won at Kansas and he won at Charlotte last year. He didn’t have the greatest results here in the playoffs last year but in eight total races in the NextGen era at Vegas, he’s finished 7th or better on six occasions.

Carson Hocevar (Starting P19) – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

I was prepared to go with Josh Berry in this spot but if we’re being honest, I think there are cheaper position differential plays that I have a little more faith in. I know Berry won this race a year ago, but he’s going to be such a popular play because of where he’s starting.

Instead I want to highlight Carson Hocevar because he managed to not over-qualify his car this weekend. And truthfully, he had a phenomenal setup last week but faded in the final laps to finish 20th. And that’s somewhat disappointing considering he looked to have the best Chevy in stages 1 and 2.

But Spire Motorsports received some big investments in the offseason and Hocevar seems to be showing up with good speed on a weekly basis. I still don’t trust him in cash games so he’s once again a tournament play that likely draws 15-18% ownership.

The upside is still huge for Hocevar and he has raw talent. Is he still prone to mistakes and poor results? Absolutely so we have to keep expectations in check just a bit. Hocevar also didn't particularly love his car in practice. He didn't even get a five-lap run in. He ran four laps, then three, then four more. So it's hard to tell what he has but I'm going to take a couple shots in my tournament lineups.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ty Gibbs (Starting P3) – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

There’s certainly some dominator potential with Gibbs for this race. It’s been a chaotic few weeks off the track for Gibbs with all the drama surrounding Chris Gabehart, Spire Motorsports, and Joe Gibbs Racing. But Gibbs has finished fourth in consecutive races and he was legitimately a contending winner late in last week’s race at Phoenix.

Gibbs’ track history at Vegas isn’t great, but it wasn’t great at Phoenix either and he grabbed a top five finish. The Toyota camp may have found something in their cars during the offseason. JGR, 23XI Racing, and even Legacy Motor Club have all looked very strong to start the 2026 campaign.

Gibbs is still an affordable piece in great equipment. And he seems to have found some extra motivation to silence his haters (myself included). Maybe he breaks through and finally gets a win this race. But at a cheap price tag it does feel as if we want to be early on Gibbs if the breakout is finally coming to fruition. But due to the excellent qualifying effort we only want shares of Gibbs in tournaments.

Austin Cindric (Starting P31) – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $6,000

We have some mis-priced Fords in the value tier this week. Cindric had a rough result at Phoenix last week because he wrecked. But he also had some great speed in practice, qualified well, and largely kept the car in the top 10 leading up to the wreck.

This week he’ll start P31. Vegas isn’t his best track by any means but at the same time he finished sixth in this race a year ago (started P3) and 11th in the playoff race (started P31). He also grabbed top 12 results at Darlington-1, Kansas-1, and Darlington-2.

I’m not going to set that as the expectation, but we also have to account for the fact that he’s still in reliable equipment that should finish in the top half of the field. Even if he finished 15th with three fastest laps we’re looking at 45 fantasy points from an affordable play in great equipment. Both he and Keselowski will be chalky but they’re good pieces to build NASCAR DFS lineups with for all formats on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski (Starting P28) – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $8,000

I believe Kez is appropriately priced on FanDuel, but I have no idea what DraftKings is doing with this price. We’re a week removed from Keselowski being priced at $8,300 where he started dead last and he finished 15th to return 50 fantasy points. Why bother dropping his price under $7,000?

I’m not going to even try to defend the practice results. They weren’t anything special and he’s still dealing with a broken leg. But all three RFK Racing cars finished in the top 12 in this race last fall. Keselowski even managed to grab himself a top 10 result. We just saw that he can manage the leg injury on an oval last week.

Last week we only needed a top 20 from Keselowski and he delivered. He does start a few rows further up this weekend, but again, we can probably live with a top 18 finish at this price tag.

Noah Gragson (Starting P34) – DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $4,200

I preface this driver by saying, he’s not great by any means. Front Row Motorsports can have some strong days, but they don’t always qualify well. But this driver and his teammates are capable of surprising us. So if you need a punt, I’m fine going as low as Gragson for salary relief.

Gragson is a Vegas native and this is his home track. And he’s a fan favorite with a lot of engagement with fans on social media. So this race just means a little bit more to him.

If you look at his Driver Averages profile, you’ll see that higher speed intermediates like Kansas (18.6 average finish), Michigan (19.5), and Vegas (19.6) are tracks where he tends to generate his best results. And those averages aren’t elite by any means. We’re not getting any win equity. 

But a top 20 finish at this price tag can probably return value. If you play the right dominators and mid-range plays, there’s a path to Gragson hitting the optimal lineup as a driver priced in the bottom five on DraftKings. Specifically at Vegas, he’s finished 13th or better in three of the last six races so there’s certainly upside if he can avoid wrecking which he was unable to do at Phoenix last week.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

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