Darlington delivered some great racing as it usually does and Tyler Reddick went to victory lane once again for the fourth time this season, and we’re only six races in! It was another very strong week for the Toyota camp and we’re once again waiting for the Chevrolet cars to find their groove.

But this week, we head to Martinsville Speedway which is also known as the Paperclip for its shape and small size. This is the last race before the NASCAR Cup Series takes a week off for Easter, but after what we saw at Phoenix a few weeks ago, it feels like we’ll get 400 exciting laps for this race on Sunday.

We have all your coverage this weekend with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. And after a year away, we’re bringing back the NASCAR DFS Show to offer up some analysis on every race in under 30 minutes each week. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies for the Cook Out 400!

 

 

 

Martinsville Speedway

As we all know by this point, Martinsville is another short, flat track on the NASCAR schedule measuring at just over a half-mile in length and it is incredibly flat. The straights see no banking at all and even in the turns they’re only 12 degrees. However, most of the cars don’t run high enough on the turns where the banking even comes into play.

We’ve only seen one “comparable” track so far on the schedule. The NASCAR Cup Series raced at Phoenix three weeks ago. Phoenix is a one-mile track with minimal banking but it’s still a fair comparison to Martinsville. If we need additional comps then we can also consider Richmond and New Hampshire.

But the big narrative so far this year has been how dominant the Toyota’s have been. Tyler Reddick has won four of the first six races. Denny Hamlin won Vegas and Christopher Bell had the best ride at Phoenix despite the fact he didn’t win. Can they bring speed and dominance once again to Martinsville Speedway. History says that it’s entirely possible, and even likely.

But we need to value track position and the dominator points this weekend. I’ll touch on lineup trends in the next section. But just based on the pure “race” trends in the table above, we should expect about half the field to finish off the lead lap. If you’re a driver starting at the rear and you’re not in the greatest equipment, it’s easy to fall a lap down and then some. In fact, any kind of penalty or error on pit road can be costly in terms of track position because you could lose two laps very fast.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

It’s not a surprise to me that the front row scores incredibly well here. In seven of the eight NextGen races at Martinsville, one driver from the front row has made the optimal lineup. The beautiful thing about Martinsville is that we have 400 laps to work with. That will come out to about 250+ dominator points available for our lineups. So do not hesitate to be aggressive and build lineups targeting three drivers that can each score over 80 points on DraftKings.

Martinsville is also a track where dominator points can come from outside the top 10. If you refer to the previous trends table, 63.4% of the laps led are from drivers starting inside the top 10 over the last five races. That means a little over one-third of the remaining laps led are coming from drivers starting outside the first five rows. This is also a track where win equity doesn’t necessarily come from inside the first five rows. That was certainly the case last week at Darlington, but we can take some risks and look for dominators and win equity starting in rows 6-10.

Now in order to squeeze in up to three dominators, we’ll need some value plays. Some value drivers are going to qualify well and you may think that their upside could be capped if they can’t move up enough. But don’t be afraid to lean into chaos. There isn’t much run off at this track and this track lends itself to many cautions because a car in the wall, a driver that spins, or a small amount of debris has to force a caution to maintain the integrity of the race. So a value play that qualifies inside the top 20 may not be great on paper, but they can still find a way to be a low-owned option that hits the optimal lineup by not being a part of the chaos.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Cook Out 400

I’m not going to dwell on the practice-to-qualifying table this week. There are some drivers that looked really good according to the numbers above. But at the same time, at a track like this there isn’t much of a gap between the fastest lap and the 20th-fastest lap. I think it’s fine to observe long run speeds and maybe use this as a metric for who overqualified or underqualified the car. But each practice session is run on with 17-19 drivers. And on a short track that allows drivers to maybe deliver some misleading metrics. Brad Keselowski detailed it best and I broke it down in his write-up below. Use this table as you see fit but I’m leaning more into lineup theory and track history over practice speeds this week. It’s 400 laps on a short track so I’m counting on variance.

 

 

 

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

It’s hard to leave Hamlin out of the NASCAR DFS Playbook when we come to a track like Martinsville. The Toyota camp is on a roll this season having won all but one race and they arguably had the best car in the field in the one race they didn’t win (Phoenix).

But Martinsville has always been a great track for Hamlin and it’s considered one of his two “home” tracks since he’s originally from Virginia. Hamlin has 40(!) career Cup Series races at Martinsville including six wins with 21 finishes inside the top five. Over his last 10 races here he’s led 100+ laps in five of those races.

We know we have dominator potential and win equity with Hamlin. We want to chase dominator points and as the most expensive driver on DraftKings, he went out and won the pole and he’ll have a great pit stall so he’s in line to maintain great track position throughout.

Ryan Blaney (Starting P12) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $14,000

Blaney is another strong play in terms of track history. Specifically in the NextGen car, he’s been elite with two wins (both playoff races in 2023 and 2024), and his worse finish is 11th. In fact, he hasn’t finished outside the top 12 at Martinsville since 2018.

Even in the playoff race last fall, he started P31 and managed to lead 177 laps despite having to drive through the field. The best drivers just naturally work their way to the front. Now I do want to add one small caveat. His “ceiling” performances at Martinsville tend to come in the playoffs as we’ve seen each of the last three years. He’s had some success in the spring races but his most dominant runs have come in the playoffs where we see an extra 100 laps run.

But we also just saw Blaney win at Phoenix three weeks ago and he’s the only non-Toyota driver with a win on his resume so far this year. So the track history and recent performance in this aero package are in his favor.

Christopher Bell (Starting P11) – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

While Blaney was the winner at Phoenix three weeks ago, even he acknowledged in his post-race interview that Bell had the best car that day. Bell finished as the runner-up but logged 176 laps led and 119 fastest laps to land in the optimal lineup.

And as if we can’t hammer this point home enough, Joe Gibbs Racing is outstanding on the short, flat tracks. Bell won the pole for this race a year ago but finished second to Denny Hamlin who destroyed the field. Bell still led 25 laps on his way to a runner-up result. Bell did win here in the playoffs in 2022 with 150 laps led, and we also know he’s had success on comparable tracks like Phoenix and New Hampshire.

I’m going to try and be overweight on Bell as it seems as if some of the NASCAR DFS community might forget how good this car was just three weeks ago. And with Tyler Reddick’s success, and the obvious resumes of Hamlin and Blaney, I like Bell as a high-upside option to dominate and possibly win this race.

William Byron (Starting P2) – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

Byron starts on the front next to Hamlin for our Cook Out 400 DFS picks. It remains to be seen if the Chevrolet cars have figured out how to properly set up the car with this new body. But from what we know about this race for DFS, getting exposure to the front row is usually a key to success.

Byron is a three-time winner at this track including this past fall where he led 300+ laps in a 500-lap race. And this can’t be emphasized enough, but all three of his wins have come in the NextGen era which means he’s won three of the last eight races at this track. 

Now there have been some poor finishes as well so you have to pick your battles here. But if you are fading Hamlin in any of your lineups, conventional wisdom suggests that you should probably play the other guy starting on the front row.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe (Starting P27) – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $10,500

The goal this week is to target dominator points. However, good cars and drivers just naturally make their way through the field and score well. Briscoe can certainly do that even if it’s been a frustrating start to the 2026 season. We know this guy is capable of winning races as we saw three times a year ago.

PD can be hard to come by and Briscoe simply laid down a poor qualifying lap on Saturday. So if you can afford him in cash games you probably want the points here. He’s grabbed a couple top five results at Martinsville in the past and had a top 10 with JGR in this race a year ago while engine failure provided a poor result last fall. I might aim to be slightly underweight in GPP’s because we should be paying for dominator points but use your best judgment.

Ty Gibbs (Starting P4) – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $10,000

Gibbs laid down a very strong qualifying effort and he’ll start on the front row for Sunday’s race. Ever since we got past the first two races (Daytona and Atlanta) Gibbs has been rattling off great results finishing sixth or better at COTA, Phoenix, Vegas, and Darlington. It certainly feels as if he can pull out his first career win this season.

The starting spot puts him right behind elite company but overall this is still great track position. If he can hold this position through stage one, he can come off pit road with a great pit stop and possibly find himself up front after a caution or to start a new stage.

Gibbs doesn’t have a single top 10 finish in his Cup Series career at Martinsville. But we’re finally seeing him take that next step in his progression and he previously had some dominating runs in the Xfinity Series, now known as the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. We’ve seen him finish well of late. Let’s see if he can get up front for 60+ laps.

Ryan Preece (Starting P17) – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $9,000

Preece isn’t a well-kept secret for this race and the pricing is reflective of how clever the DFS providers are. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel but still worth playing on both sites. In general, we upgrade this guy when we come to short, flat tracks as this caters to his background. In his first year with RFK Racing in 2025, Preece finished sixth and seventh in the two Martinsville races while gaining 12+ spots of position differential in each race.

Preece is also having a very strong, consistent start to the 2026 campaign. He kicked it off by winning the Clash at Bowman Gray. And since we got Daytona, Atlanta, and COTA out of the way, he’s finished 13th at Phoenix, 11th at Vegas, and 13th at Darlington and his running position has been much better than where he’s finished. Preece rolls off P17 which gives him great track position to start and he can easily move up and finish well while collecting some fastest laps along the way.

Brad Keselowski (Starting P23) – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,200

It wasn’t the greatest qualifying effort for Keselowski. Nor were the practice speeds all that great. And while the Fox broadcast crew tends to push the narrative of practice speeds and qualifying efforts, at the end of the day I’ll take a driver’s word for it if they like their car.

Right after practice and just before qualifying we saw Jamie Little interview Brad about the car and his practice effort. Brad seemed very comfortable with the car and he was happy overall. He even made note how the practice speeds at Martinsville can be misleading. Drivers tend to overdrive the car a little bit because there are less than 20 cars on the track in each session. But come Sunday that won’t be the case.

Brad is making his 600th career Cup Series start on Sunday and the RFK cars have looked pretty solid. He’s an experienced driver and while I don’t think he wins the race, he’s capable of moving up and finishing very well. I’m more than happy getting exposure to this play because he likes what he has in the car.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ross Chastain (Starting P18) – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $8,000

Chastain gets the “WTF are we doing with this pricing” label of the week. Last week it was Austin Dillon. This week it’s the Watermelon Man. Chastain has the sixth-best average finish at Martinsville over the last six races, and that’s NOT weighing his hilariously awesome move in 2022 to advance to the NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Ross has three straight top 10 finishes at Martinsville while gaining at least nine spots of position differential in all three races. His worst finish at this track over the last four years is 14th. Now when we consider the soft price tag, he’s returning 42 fantasy points at minimum if he finishes 10th without any dominator points.

I do anticipate some significant ownership to come to Chastain. If building lineups with two or three dominators, he’s an easy piece to fit that has decent track position while also possessing a strong shot at moving up and finishing well.

Todd Gilliland (Starting P29) – DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $5,800

I’ll happily go back to the Toddfather this week after he was a fine play last week. It wasn’t a slate-breaking performance at Darlington, but he did enough to return 5X value as a cheap option. And now we’re heading to one of his best tracks.

Among active drivers since 2023, Gilliland actually has the 12th-best average finish at Martinsville (15.5) so that’s fairly promising considering he’s priced under $6,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. In the eight NextGen era races at the Paperclip, Gilliland has five finishes of 13th or better. The downside is that, while Gilliland isn’t typically a great qualifier, he does have a history of qualifying inside the top 20 at Martinsville so he’s had the benefit of starting with good track position. But he didn’t have the best qualifying effort on Sunday so this is an affordable driver we can look at for position differential and possibly maintain the lead lap if things work in his favor.

In this aero package three weeks ago at Phoenix we saw him start P30 and finish 12th for 49 points on DraftKings. I imagine he’ll be a trendy selection and for good reason. When we come to Martinsville, if we want the optimal lineup, we need everyone finishing on the lead lap, and Gilly has a history of finishing very well at this track.

Austin Dillon (Starting P30) – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $6,200

I’m going back to the well this week after he was a tough GPP play a week ago at Darlington. But I still love the value we’re getting for a driver with top 20 upside. Over the last six races at Martinsville, Dillon has an average finish of 18.3 and he’s actually turned into a solid short track racer after building a reputation as a superspeedway specialist.

Since 2023 he’s won at Richmond twice while often performing as a top 20 driver at short tracks like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Gateway. Even three weeks ago at Phoenix he started P25 and finished 16th to return 36 fantasy points. Specifically at Martinsville he’s finished 18th or better in three straight races.

I’m sure many will flock to Kyle Busch at $7,000 given his starting spot. That’s a name recognition play but I prefer taking the savings and going with his teammate who has shown he can move up at short, flat tracks in recent years.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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