Watkins Glen went exactly how it needed to go.

Shane van Gisbergen was the main winner pick, and he handled business. The card was built the right way for that race: SVG at the top, Tyler Reddick as the alternate, and props doing most of the work. That is how you attack a race where one driver clearly owns the top of the board.

Now we go to Dover, and this is a totally different setup.

This is the NASCAR All-Star Race, which means no points, a $1 million prize, and a format that makes this a lot different than a normal Dover race. The race is 350 laps and 350 miles, with three segments: 75 laps, 75 laps, and a 200-lap final run. It goes green Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET on FS1.

That format matters.

After Segment 1, the top 26 cars get inverted for Segment 2. Then the field gets reset again for the final 200-lap run. So yes, starting position matters, but it is not everything. You need speed, pit-road execution, patience through the invert, and enough car to go win the race when the money is actually on the line.

That brings us to Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin won the pole for the All-Star Race at Dover, with Brad Keselowski starting second, Erik Jones third, Ross Chastain fourth, William Byron fifth, Christopher Bell sixth, Bubba Wallace seventh, Joey Logano eighth, Ty Gibbs ninth, and Austin Cindric tenth. Qualifying included three collective laps with a four-tire pit stop on the second lap, so this was not just a raw-speed lap.

Hamlin also has the Dover numbers to back it up. Since 2023, he has a 2.3 average finish here with two wins, three top fives, three top 10s, 207 laps led, and a 126.4 driver rating. He has won the last two Cup points races at Dover.

So the plan is simple.

Hamlin is the main winner pick. Larson is the ceiling play. Bell and Blaney give us the next layer. After that, we stop forcing too many outrights and keep the props tight.

 

 

 

NASCAR All-Star Race Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Denny Hamlin (+350 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 1.00u

This is the bet.

Hamlin has the pole, the recent Dover résumé, and the current speed. Since 2023, he has won two of the last three Dover points races and has not finished worse than fifth here. That is the kind of profile I want when the race is 350 laps and the final segment is still 200 laps long.

The format does create risk. The Segment 1 invert can shuffle him back, and this race is not just a normal pole-sitter-and-clean-air setup.

But the final run is long enough for the best car to get back through traffic.

At +350, I am not calling this a gift.

I am calling it the right anchor.

Kyle Larson (+500 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.75u

Larson is the only other winner bet I really want near the top.

He had the fastest speed in Friday practice at Dover, and that matters. Hamlin has the pole. Larson has the raw speed. Those are the two clearest paths on the board. Larson topped the practice chart at 157.950 mph and ran 73 laps in the session.

The concern is starting position and the format. Larson is not sitting on the front row with Hamlin, and this race can punish drivers who get stuck in traffic at the wrong time.

But Dover is still Dover.

If Larson has the best car over a long run, he can absolutely drive through this field and win the million dollars.

At +500, he belongs on the card.

 

 

 

NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions 2026 - Long Shot Winners

Christopher Bell (+750 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Bell is not a longshot, but he is the value add.

He starts sixth, which gives him much better early track position than some of the bigger names buried deeper in the field. He is also the defending All-Star Race winner, and this format rewards drivers who can execute late without needing points strategy to matter.

I do not like him more than Hamlin or Larson.

But I do like him enough to keep him on the card.

At +750, he is the next best layer.

Ryan Blaney (+1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Blaney is the number that keeps pulling me back in.

Since 2023, he has a 6.0 average finish at Dover with one top five, three top 10s, 47 laps led, and a 105.2 driver rating. That is a real Dover profile.

The issue is starting position. Blaney is not getting the same clean beginning that Hamlin, Byron, Bell or Logano get.

But this is 350 laps. The final segment is 200 laps. If the car is there, he has time.

At 10 to 1, I want a piece.

Joey Logano (+2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

This is the longshot I would rather take than forcing a random bomb.

Logano starts eighth, which is important in this format. He also has two career All-Star Race wins, including last year’s race where he led 199 laps.

I am not pretending the current form is perfect.

It is not.

But if this race turns into track position, restarts, and late-race aggression, Logano at 25 to 1 is live enough to keep on the card.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Picks: NASCAR All-Star Race - Dover Motor Speedway

Brad Keselowski Top 10 (+125 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

This is the small plus-money prop.

Brad starts second, and track position matters at Dover. Hamlin got the pole, but Keselowski was right there in qualifying and starts on the front row.

I do not want to chase him outright.

But at +125 for a top 10, I am interested.

Denny Hamlin Top 5 (-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.75u

This is the safer way to double down on Hamlin.

Since 2023, he has finished first, first and fifth at Dover. He starts from the pole. He has the best recent Dover driver rating in the field.

The All-Star format adds risk, but the final 200 laps give him time to get back where he belongs.

At -150, this is playable.

Kyle Larson Top 5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Larson had the fastest practice speed, and that is enough for me to want a top-five angle.

The outright is the upside shot.

This is the cleaner version if you do not want to rely on him winning.

At -110, I like it.

 

 

 

Final Thoughts

The All-Star Race is not a normal Dover race.

That is the whole point.

The pole matters. The format matters. The invert matters. Pit crews matter. Track position matters. And then, after all that, the final 200 laps still give the best cars enough time to go win the money.

Hamlin is the anchor. He has the pole, the best recent Dover profile, and two straight Dover points-race wins.

Larson is the ceiling play. He had the fastest practice speed and is always dangerous when the race comes down to long-run pace.

Bell and Blaney give us the next layer. Bell has track position and All-Star form. Blaney has the Dover résumé and the price.

Logano is the small longshot. He starts eighth, has two All-Star wins, and knows how to steal this type of race.

Then the props stay tight.

Brad Keselowski Top 10. Denny Hamlin Top 5. Kyle Larson Top 5.

That is the card.

Hamlin at the top.

Larson as the hammer.

Props to protect the week.