The last three weeks have been NASCAR in its purest form. Phoenix treated us right at +2.50 units with a 33.3% ROI. Vegas turned around and slapped us for -4.55 units with a -65.0% ROI. Darlington gave us some of it back at +1.00 units with a 14.3% ROI after Tyler Reddick finally did us a solid and cashed at +700. That leaves us at -1.05 units over the last three weeks. Not good. Don't panic. Keep firing.

NASCAR Best Bets: Cook Out 400 at Martinsville

Martinsville is 400 laps on the paper clip. This place does not care about your narrative. It does not care what looked good on Tuesday. You either have a car that can pass, defend, and stay alive when the long run starts taking souls, or you are just out there cooking the tires off it and lying to yourself.

The Favorite

Ryan Blaney (+500 at DraftKings)

This is the cleanest click on the board.

Over the last six Martinsville races, Blaney owns a 4.5 average finish, two wins, five top 10s, and 354 laps led. That is not “pretty good here.” That is control. That is comfort. That is a guy who knows exactly what this race needs from lap 40 to lap 400. Ford only has one win this season, and it belongs to him. If I am taking one guy to go punch this race in the mouth, it is Blaney.

 

 

 

The Challengers

Chevy has been bad. Let’s call it what it is. No wins through six races. Toyota has taken five of the first six, and every week we keep waiting for the new Chevy body to show us something real. But Martinsville is where that whole story can flip in a hurry. Hendrick has won six of the last 11 here, and all four of its full-time drivers have won at Martinsville since 2020. Chevy may be asleep. Hendrick at Martinsville is still a loaded gun. 

William Byron (+700 at DraftKings) 0.75u

If Chevy gets its first win of the year this weekend, Byron is one of the most obvious ways it happens.

He has three Martinsville wins, including the fall 2025 race, and in 16 career starts here, he has six top fives, nine top 10s, and 664 laps led. This is not some fake “good short-track driver” angle. This is a real Martinsville résumé. Byron knows how to control this place, and when Hendrick is going to wake up somewhere, this is the kind of track where it starts.

Kyle Larson (+700 at Caesars) 0.75u

Larson acts like this place annoys him, then goes out there and runs like one of the best guys in the field.

Over his last seven Martinsville starts, his worst finish is sixth. He won here in 2023 and added runner-up finishes in fall 2022 and spring 2024. That is elite, not just dangerous. He is not my top Hendrick click because the number is tighter than I want for a secondary piece, but I am absolutely not leaving him off the card.

Chase Elliott (+900 at BetMGM) 0.5u

This is probably my favorite number in the Hendrick group.

Elliott has 14 top 10s and 1,275 laps led at Martinsville, and he comes in with four straight top-four finishes at this track. That is the kind of profile where you stop overthinking it. If this race gets ugly late, Elliott is exactly the type of guy who stays clean, stays patient, and shows up in the final 50 laps when other cars start beating themselves. 

The Longshot 

Ryan Preece (+3000 at DraftKings) 0.25u

This is a real long shot. Not a dart. Not a prayer. A real number.

Preece has gone 13th at Phoenix, 11th at Las Vegas, and 13th at Darlington the last three weeks, and Martinsville is one of his best tracks. He owns three top 10s and 135 laps led here, and he already won the 2026 Clash at Bowman Gray, which absolutely matters when we are talking about a guy who likes to race with his elbows out on a short track. This is exactly the kind of 30-to-1 ticket worth having in your pocket.

 

 

 

Props That Pop

Ryan Preece Top 10 (+100 at Caesars)

This is the cleaner Preece bet.

If you believe Martinsville fits him, and the numbers say it does, then even money on a top 10 makes all the sense in the world. Good recent form. Good track history. Clash win in the bag. Half-unit and move on.

Carson Hocevar Over Brand Keselowski (+110 at DraftKings)

This is not disrespectful to Kes. He just finished second at Darlington. Everybody saw it.

But Hocevar has been one of the most aggressive young drivers in the garage all season, and not in a fake “he’s trying hard” way. He is 13th in points through six races with two top fives and two top 10s, and he just finished fourth at Darlington. The speed is real. The edge is real. The confidence is real.

Now bring it back to this track. Hocevar’s Martinsville results are volatile, but the upside is there with top 10 finishes in the sample. Keselowski’s recent Martinsville profile is much shakier than the name suggests, carrying a 22.7 average finish over the last six races there. So no, I am not saying Hocevar is suddenly a better short-track driver across the board. I am saying plus money on the more aggressive current car against a veteran whose recent Martinsville results have been underwhelming is playable.

Team Penske Winning Team (+350 at DraftKings) 0.5u

Small bet. Good number.

Blaney is the anchor here, but Logano has also posted a 6.5 average finish over the last six Martinsville races with six straight top 10s. If Hendrick and Gibbs are shorter on the board, +350 on Penske is worth a piece. Not a hammer. A piece. 

Ryan Blaney Top Ford (+100 at DraftKings) 0.5u

Another week, another Blaney Top Ford.

That is not laziness. That is reading the room correctly. He is Ford’s best driver right now, Ford’s only winner this year, and Ford’s best recent Martinsville driver by a mile. Keep it simple.

​​Denny Hamlin Top Toyota (+170) 0.5u

This is the sneaky good one.

Hamlin won the spring Martinsville race in 2025, and over the last six Martinsville races, he owns a 9.8 average finish, one win, four top fives, and 532 laps led. Bell can ruin the party, sure. But Hamlin at Martinsville at plus money is still a very adult bet.

Manufacturer Betting Note

Ford being the third number is weird. Blaney is the favorite. Logano has been good here. Preece at least has some short-track bite. And still, Ford is sitting behind Chevy and Toyota. That tells you the books trust Hendrick’s depth and Toyota’s season-long speed more than Ford’s room as a whole.

And honestly, part of me still thinks this is where Chevy gets its first win of the season. They are still shut out, but Hendrick has owned this place for years. If that drought ends Sunday, nobody should act surprised. 

 

 

 

Final Thoughts

Blaney is the anchor because he has earned it. Hendrick gives us three real ways to beat him if Chevy finally wakes up. Preece is the long shot because he actually belongs on a short-track card. Hocevar over Kes is not some fake hot take. It is a bet on current edge, current aggression, and plus money.

Now let’s go take it.