Managing a winning fantasy baseball roster requires a sharp eye on short-term trends, an understanding of underlying Statcast metrics, and shifting roles. Our fantasy baseball projections can certainly help, but if you’re looking at the trade market or seeking out players to target on the fantasy baseball waiver wire, your research needs to be more in-depth. That’s why we do the work for you here with the Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch. Thanks to our friends over on FanGraphs we can look at player data from over the last seven days and offer you a breakdown of whose stock is moving and how to capitalize on the trade market.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Risers This Week

Trea Turner, SS Philadelphia Phillies

Turner moves from the "Fallers" section last week straight into the "Risers" after stealing four bases this past week. Over the last seven days, he is also batting .280 with one home run, three RBI, and seven runs scored. His sprint speed remains in the upper percentiles, and plate discipline numbers have stabilized over the last seven games, signaling that the early-season slump is likely over.

Alec Bohm, 3B Philadelphia Phillies

Yes, another Phillies player. It has been a fantastic month of May for Bohm, who is batting .339 with four home runs, nine RBI, and nine runs scored. Most of this production has come in the last week. Statcast shows an improved barrel rate and hard-hit percentage during this stretch, though a high line-drive rate suggests some regression will eventually hit. If he is on a waiver wire, adding him immediately while he is hot is a strong move, though managers should not be afraid to drop or trade him once the streak cools off.

Trey Yesavage, SP Toronto Blue Jays

Yesavage made two starts this past week and posted a stellar 1.50 ERA with a dominant 10.50 K/9 over 12 innings. Looking at some data highlights, we see a swinging-strike rate over 14% during this stretch, fueled by high-spin fastballs and a devastating secondary mix. He appears primed to take the rest of this season by storm.

Gerrit Cole, SP New York Yankees

Regardless of what happens in the first start back Friday, Cole has completed a rehab assignment and is ready for major-league action. Reports have been strong overall, despite a few minor competitive hiccups during minor-league stints. Fastball velocity sat right at usual averages in the final rehab appearance, meaning elite strikeout numbers should return shortly.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Fallers This Week

Ian Happ, OF Chicago Cubs

It has been a brutal stretch for Happ. Over the last seven days, he is batting just .087 with a miserable .192 OBP. More concerning is the underlying discipline: he is striking out 50-percent of the time over the past week. Statcast metrics show a massive spike in whiff rate against breaking balls. While he will eventually heat back up, the mechanics seem out of sync, and a turnaround could take some time.

Kazuma Okamoto, 3B Toronto Blue Jays

Many managers wondered if raw power would translate from Japan, and 10 home runs have been a major asset. However, flaws are showing. He is still striking out 30-percent of the time, and this past week yielded almost nothing in regard to RBI production. Opposing pitchers are exploiting a chase rate outside the zone, dragging down weekly stock.

Seranthony Dominguez, RP Chicago White Sox

After a strong start to the season, Dominguez has run into a wall, allowing seven runs over his last 8.1 innings. The data reveals a sharp drop in first-pitch strike percentage and an elevated walk rate. It is unclear how long the leash is in the closer role, but if things get worse, Grant Taylor is waiting in the wings to take over.

Gus Varland, RP Washington Nationals

Varland held down the fort quite well over the last few weeks, but the grip on late innings is slipping. Former closer Clayton Beeter was just reinstated from the Injured List. Expect Beeter to push Varland into a committee or timeshare for save opportunities, capping Varland's weekly value. You can follow all of the bullpen pitcher movement on our Closer Grid.

 

 

Best Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates

Fernando Tatis, OF San Diego Padres

Tatis is enduring a power outage, but the underlying Statcast metrics tell a different story. Max exit velocity and hard-hit rates remain elite. He is simply hitting the ball into the ground or directly at defenders. At some point, the home runs will return, the floodgates will open, and the trade price will skyrocket. Acquiring him now while other managers are frustrated is a savvy move.

Maikel Garcia, 3B Kansas City Royals

With just three homers and four steals, Garcia is on pace to fall below last season's breakout totals. Despite the lack of surface production, plate discipline remains strong with low chase rates and excellent zone contact. An expected batting average (xBA) suggests better days are ahead, making him a prime target for a cheap buy-low trade.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Sell High Candidates

Nolan Arenado, 3B Arizona Diamondbacks

Arenado is off to a great start over the first two months of the season. However, after four consecutive years of underlying analytical decline, it is hard to believe vintage production will continue in an age-35 season. The hard-hit rate is actually lower than last year despite the good results. Cashing in on the name value before a potential summer slump is worth considering.

Salvador Perez, C Kansas City Royals

Perez is another aging superstar enjoying a highly productive week, hitting .300 with two home runs over his last seven days. While raw power remains undeniable, it is incredibly tough to trust a 36-year-old backstop to maintain this pace over a long season. Trading him to a catcher-needy manager while value is at a premium could yield a significant return.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Players to Watch Next Week

San Francisco Giants Hitters: They play the Rockies at Coors Field during the second half of next week. The Giants have hit well recently, making them an excellent streaming target.

Atlanta Braves Hitters: They travel to Cincinnati during the second half of next week, getting a massive park-factor upgrade at Great American Ball Park.

Astros Opponents (Rangers and Brewers): Houston carries the highest team ERA this season due to rotation and bullpen breakdowns. Target Texas and Milwaukee bats.

Sacramento Games (Athletics, Yankees, Mariners): The Athletics are home in Sacramento all week. Expect an offensive boost for A's hitters, as well as visiting Yankees and Mariners batters.

Stolen Base Targets (Orioles and Angels): Both teams match up against the Rays next week. Tampa Bay's catchers rank lowest in the league in caught-stealing percentage, opening the door for active runners.