Jacob Lopez PrizePicks MLB Picks Today, 3/30: Free DFS Picks & Projections

Looking for the best PrizePicks MLB picks today? Our experts at Fantasy Alarm break down Monday's top pitcher props for Opening Week, identifying the highest-value PrizePicks MLB entries across earned runs, strikeouts, and more. Whether you're building a Power Play or a Flex entry, we've done the research so you don't have to. Check out Fantasy Alarm's PrizePicks MLB picks page for daily projections, lineup advice, and sharp prop analysis all season long.

Jacob Lopez PrizePicks MLB Pick — More 2.5 Earned Runs

Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves | ~7:20 PM ET

Lopez enters 2026 as the A's fourth starter after posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 92.2 innings last season. The underlying split that defines his profile is stark: at home in 2025, Lopez posted a 2.64 ERA and .655 opponents' OPS across nine starts. On the road, he was a completely different pitcher, posting a 5.40 ERA and .779 OPS across 12 starts. That is not a small-sample quirk. It is a documented, repeatable pattern that held throughout the entirety of his first full MLB season.

The matchup itself is arguably the most punishing draw a soft-tossing left-hander could receive. The Atlanta Braves have historically been one of the most aggressive and productive lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching. They rank among the top organizations in MLB in OPS, slugging percentage, and home runs against southpaws over the past three seasons, with Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies forming a right-handed-heavy core that feasts on the kind of arm-angle and velocity profile Lopez brings. Lopez has allowed 16 of his 17 career home runs to right-handed hitters, which is not a platoon split. It is a structural flaw walking directly into the teeth of a lineup historically built to exploit it. The Braves' park factor at Truist Park is neutral, meaning there is no mitigating environmental factor to bail Lopez out. The A's were also just swept by Toronto in the opening series, with Blue Jays pitchers combining to strike out 50 Oakland batters in three games, leaving this a cold lineup providing minimal run support behind a road lefty with a documented road problem.

Chase Burns PrizePicks MLB Pick — More 7.5 Strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds | ~6:40 PM ET

Burns got his first extended look in the majors in 2025, making eight starts alongside five relief appearances and finishing with a 4.57 ERA across 43.1 innings. The results were mixed as he adjusted to big-league hitters, but the underlying stuff was never in question. He became the first starting pitcher in the expansion era to strike out the first five batters he faced in his MLB debut against the Yankees, and went on to record double-digit strikeouts in four of his first eight career starts, joining Fernando Valenzuela and Bob Feller as the only pitchers since 1893 to accomplish that feat. His slider carried a 43.7 percent whiff rate last season, and his fastball consistently touches triple digits, giving him two genuine wipeout offerings that play in every count.

His final spring tuneup against the Brewers was sharp: five innings, 68 pitches, 53 strikes, seven strikeouts, and zero walks. He struck out the side in the first inning using a fastball, slider, and sinker combination. Pittsburgh comes in 1-2 after a difficult opening series against the Mets, including two extra-inning losses, and their lineup does not profile as one that limits strikeouts against power arms. Projection systems peg Burns for a 2.96 ERA this season across roughly 108 innings, reflecting genuine belief in his stuff translating as he gains experience. At 7.5, this line is set conservatively for a pitcher who has already shown a double-digit strikeout ceiling in his brief MLB track record.

Cody Ponce PrizePicks MLB Pick — More 5.5 Strikeouts

Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays | ~7:07 PM ET

Ponce makes his long-awaited return to Major League Baseball on Monday, pitching at home in Toronto against the Colorado Rockies for his first MLB start since 2021. After flaming out with Pittsburgh and struggling in Japan, Ponce reinvented himself in the KBO with the Hanwha Eagles in 2025 and was historically dominant. He went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a league-record 252 strikeouts across 180.2 innings, winning the KBO MVP and the pitching triple crown. The foundation of that resurgence was a two-tick velocity gain on his fastball, which was sitting at 96 mph this spring, up from 93.2 mph in his final MLB season, paired with a sharpened splitter that became a genuine wipeout offering.

His spring numbers backed up the hype: a 0.66 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and a 12-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 13.2 Grapefruit League innings. Now he gets the Colorado Rockies at Rogers Centre, one of the most favorable pitching matchups on the entire Opening Week schedule. The Rockies are entering Monday at 0-3, their lineup does not handle elite velocity and offspeed combination well, and their strikeout rate against power arms has been among the worst in the National League in recent seasons. At 5.5, this line is priced for first-start rust that his arsenal is more than capable of overcoming.

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