Sometimes scenery changes are good for players, but in the case of Shane Baz, I’m not sure that’s the case. Going from Tampa Bay a year before they moved back to an elite pitching environment, to Baltimore, where everything is seemingly going wrong. Baz, through his first nine starts this year, has just one win and a 5.26 ERA. All of his surface-level numbers are bad, and everything under the hood matches, so what is truly Shane Baz’s fantasy appeal this year?

The Illusion of Upside: Age-27 Reality vs. Past Pedigree 

What is there to like about Shane Baz? Someone try selling me on the dream because I don’t see it. Don’t use his pedigree as a prospect because I’m not hearing it in his Age-27 season. Before the 2022 campaign, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had him listed as the eighth prospect in the game, while MLB had him at 12. We’re seemingly a long way away from 2022 at this point.

Batted Ball Profiles: Low Grounders and Heavy Contact 

Baz’s ground ball rate is a new career-low; he’s giving up boatloads of line drives and flyballs. Camden Yard also rates out really well for hitters. Per Baseball Savant, Camden Yards ranks ninth in park factor, and Baz has a 5.66 ERA in Baltimore and 4.99 away from home. Opponents are batting .321 with a .402 wOBA in Baltimore.

 

 

 

Analyzing Baz’s Underwhelming Lack of Strikeouts

Everything on the strikeout front is down, and it doesn’t look like anything is going to get better. The pitch mix year over year has changed, and it’s clearly not for the better.

He’s throwing his knuckle curve a career-high 32.6% of the time, and amongst all qualified pitchers, his curve is the second-worst pitch amongst all qualified starters. Dustin May’s curve is a -7.1 rating on Fangraphs, while Baz’s curveball is -6.3.

Plate Discipline Trends: Career-Low Whiffs, Career-High Walks 

He has career-low strikeout data at 7.4 K/9 and 18.4% K and isn’t missing any bats as his swinging-strike rate has dipped to 8.5% for a pitcher with a career mark of 11.3%. He’s never been below 11 for an entire season, and just last year was at 11.6% over 31 starts. Strikeouts are down, whiffs are down, and there’s nothing positive on the horizon suggesting any change. His walks are also WAY up, and his 3.86 BB/9 and 9.6% BB rate are also career highs.

 

 

 

Yahoo Ownership vs. Actual Value: The 30% Disconnect 

Baz is owned in nearly 40 percent of Yahoo! Fantasy baseball leagues, and that’s about 30% too high with how poorly he’s pitched. There doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel with how things have drastically changed from last season to this season. I’m completely out on Baz for the remainder of the season, and if you have him, deal him. If none of your league mates take a bite on an offer, you can safely drop him.