Who is Joey Meneses? Given what we have seen out of the previously anonymous first baseman over the last 29 games with the Washington Nationals, that is a very fair and reasonable question. If you had no idea who the previously career minor-leaguer was until about a month ago when he began surging up the fantasy baseball rankings, you are not alone.

 

At this point in the season, there are really two sets of thoughts most fantasy managers have; what can we expect for the rest of 2022 and what can we expect for next year?

Let us tackle the immediate question first, and that is to keep the good times rolling. Meneses continues to perform at a high level, and through 124 plate appearances, he is hitting .339 with seven home runs, 16 RBI, and 20 runs scored, and well it is unexpected, no one is complaining.

The Nationals are going to continue playing Menses on a daily basis as they play out the string, so playing time or opportunity in the middle of Washington’s order is not something that we will have to worry about. While Menses was never considered a top prospect, the 30-year-old did prove himself a dependable hitter in the minor leagues at times (.311/23/82 in 2018) and this season prior to his promotion (.286/20/64).

At this point in the season, the trade deadline in just about all leagues has passed so either Menses has a home or he is still available on the waiver wire in shallower leagues, so a lot of that decision-making has been removed. From a waiver wire perspective, I would exercise caution when searching for a corresponding drop for Meneses, as we do not want to overreact to the recent success.

A deeper look into Meneses unfortunately does generate some more skepticism, as while we want to enjoy and acknowledge what he is currently doing, our thoughts for next season do require a bit more caution.

Meneses has benefited from a .384 BABIP this season and while still solid, his .272 xBA brings us back to reality and is a better indication of what can be expected moving forward. Given the state of batting average in today’s game, there is still nothing wrong with that, but it is not the asset it has been this season.

Washington will still be rebuilding next season so I would imagine that he would be given every chance to build on this year’s success, but how sustainable do we think it will be?

While playing time will be a variable, I think that will ultimately be dependent upon how Meneses performs. With a .229 ISO, Meneses is doing a good job of generating power and he is making solid contact at the same time with a 10.5% barrel rate and 45.2% hard-hit rate. At an average launch angle of just 10.5 degrees though, I do have some concerns as to what level the home runs will continue into 2023.

Late-season performances like this put us in the bind of enjoying the success but also making sure not to overrate things heading into the new season. At this point, I am perfectly fine almost ignoring Meneses heading into next season and keeping him outside the top-30 first baseman. However, there is nothing stopping you from you enjoying this year’s success.

 

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