One of the biggest breakout stars of the 2022 MLB and fantasy baseball season thus far is Kyle Wright. The Atlanta Braves’ starting pitcher is among the league leaders in a number of categories after a month of action and he has everyone wondering if he can keep it up. For today’s Player Spotlight article, let’s take a closer look at Wright to determine how and why he’s been so dominant on the mound. 

 

 

Wright's Career Turnaround

 

 

Wright had plenty of hype coming out of college when he was drafted with the fifth overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft from Vanderbilt’s powerhouse program. The right-hander’s professional career got off to a shaky start, though. Wright cracked the Atlanta starting rotation to begin the 2019 season but was quickly demoted after three ineffective outings. Then he was called back up in July of 2019, promptly gave up seven runs, and was sent right back down to the minors.

Wright’s 2020 season didn’t go much better with a 5.21 ERA over eight subpar starts. In 2021, he spent nearly the entire year at Triple-A with just two spot starts for the Braves – allowing seven runs over 6.1 combined innings. Though he did show some flashes in the World Series for Atlanta, it was hard to expect much from Wright in real-life or fantasy coming into the 2022 campaign.

However, after four turns through the Atlanta rotation this season, Wright is pitching like one of the league’s best. His 1.13 ERA, 1.39 FIP, 1.86 xERA, 12.75 K/9 rate, and 34 strikeouts are all top five among qualified MLB pitchers. He’s rightfully been one of the most added players off waivers in fantasy baseball for the past couple of weeks and is now rostered in nearly 90% of Yahoo/ESPN leagues. If you missed out on the Kyle Wright breakout season, you’re not alone. 

It’s safe to say almost no one saw this coming from Wright – not even our own experts. The 26-year-old right-hander was barely being drafted in normal redraft fantasy baseball leagues back in March and early April – and he usually went un-drafted. He had an ADP of 452 back on April 7th, according to FantasyPros.com, and didn’t even crack the top 171 starting pitchers in Fantasy Alarm’s own consensus rankings before the season began. Anyone who did take a flier on him in the later rounds of deep leagues or picked him up on waivers is probably pretty psyched right about now. 

So what are the reasons behind Wright’s sudden dominance? Well, there are three specific things we can point towards. 

1. Confidence

We mentioned earlier how Wright spent most of the 2021 season in the minor leagues. He made 24 starts at Triple-A and compiled a 3.02 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 8.0% walk rate. Then, Wright was named to the Braves’ World Series roster and was actually valuable for the Braves’ championship run in October of last year. He allowed one run over 5.2 combined innings over two appearances, including a clutch long-relief outing in the Game 4 win.

Wright has said himself that he gained confidence from the whole 2021 experience of swallowing his pride, pitching a whole season in the minors to hone his craft, and then contributing to Atlanta’s World Series win can be directly attributed to his success in this 2022 campaign. 

“Those final two months at Triple-A, I felt I was as good as anybody,” Wright said to MLB.com. “I was getting my confidence. Then to be able to do it in the World Series, that gave me everything I needed to continue to progress.”

Braves manager Brian Snitker also echoed Wright’s comments during Spring Training. “I think the best thing that happened to that kid was he spent a whole year at Triple-A,” Snitker said. “He pitched and figured out who he was and changed some things.”

Changed some things, huh? That brings us to point No. 2.

2. More Curveballs

If you take one look at Wright’s FanGraphs page, the “Pitch Type” section shows one drastic change from this season compared to previous years. Simply put, he’s throwing the curveball a lot more often and it’s now a primary pitch. Check out this breakdown of his pitch type percentages from season to season when pitching in the majors:

Year

4-Seam FB

Curveball

Slider

Changeup

Sinker

2019

42.8%

11.8%

25.6%

7.6%

11.0%

2020

15.7%

13.1%

24.1%

14.3%

32.6%

2021

35.3%

14.3%

27.1%

7.5%

15.8%

2022

25.8%

33.6%

5.3%

15.6%

19.7%

Notice how Wright is throwing the curveball a career-high 33.6% of the time this year and has nearly doubled the rate from previous seasons. The curve used to be his third or fourth-most used pitch, but it’s now his most common – and even more so than the four-seam fastball. 

Not only is Wright throwing the curve much more often, but he’s also chucking it harder than before. His curveball velocity is up to 84.3 mph on average in 2022, compared to just 80.8 mph last year. 

In conjunction with the throwing the curve at a higher rate, Wright has essentially ditched his slider – which he’s tossing only 5.3% of the time. Compare that to last season when his slider made up 27.1% of his arsenal. 

3. Velocity Increase

We just talked about how Wright’s curveball velocity has increased almost four mph from last season. That’s not the only pitch to see a speed uptick. Wright’s average fastball velocity is up to a career-high 95.4 mph in 2022 (from 93.7 mph in 2021). The speed increase has made him a much more effective and intimidating pitcher with some fastballs that reach 97 or 98 in the early frames. 

Check out a few of his fastballs from an April 22 start that featured 11 strikeouts against the Marlins. That 96 mph sinker with movement is especially nasty. 

The increase in fastball velocity has coincided with his curveball being faster – and both are now plus pitches in his improved arsenal. 

Final Verdict

So there you have it. Kyle Wright’s breakout season can be attributed to a few key details. His elevated confidence, higher rate of curveballs, and increased velocity are all impacting his stellar start to the season. The 1.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .171 batting average against, and 34:6 K:BB ratio are no joke. But can he keep it going?

Well, the 1.39 FIP and 1.86 xERA certainly suggest he can. Though Wright is stranding 87% of runners thus far, the .286 BABIP also suggests he might have better luck moving forward. It would be one thing if Wright didn’t make any adjustments from last season and found sudden success or improvement – then we might expect negative regression. However, the changes that we laid out are good signs that this success can continue. 

If you added Wright off waivers or drafted him late, congratulations on the discovered gem! If you missed out, well, you can feel confident about trading for him – though maybe wait for a bad outing to buy a bit lower. His stock is extremely high right now, so those of you rostering him could consider selling off to boost your own rosters at other positions. Personally, I'm glad I grabbed Wright off waivers in one league and likely won't be dealing him away any time soon. The breakout is the real deal and Wright should help lead you to a fantasy baseball title.
 

 

 

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