Every week, we break down a different MLB shortstop to examine — good or bad. Maybe it's an MLB top prospect, a “flavor of the month” on the fantasy baseball waiver wire, or someone who could be “sell-high” trade bait. Sometimes, it's a superstar or burgeoning player who is turning in the season we were all hoping for and rising up fantasy baseball rankings. In this edition of the Fantasy Alarm Player Spotlight series, we will turn our attention to Carlos Correa. Correa signed a massive, albeit unusual, contract with the Minnesota Twins in the offseason after much speculation about where he would go. After an up and down season, how do we appropriately evaluate Correa’s performance in 2022 and where should he go in 2023 drafts? 

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight: Carlos Correa

In the offseason, Carlos Correa was one of three very high-profile shortstops to hit the free agency market. Correa, then 27 years old, made it clear he was looking for a deal in the 10-year, $300 million range. After Corey Seager signed for $325 million and Javier Báez signed for $140 million, reality started to hit Correa that there was not a team willing to give him what he was looking for. 

He instead “settled” for a unique three-year, $105 million deal that actually allows him to opt out after this year if he chooses. Whether or not that was a wise business decision long-term is a discussion for another time, but it was clear Correa wanted to bet on himself one more time after slashing .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs in 148 games in 2021. What has happened, however, is a year that is weird as the contract, leaving Correa’s decision in the offseason quite cloudy. 

But from a fantasy perspective, he has been a largely maddening player. With ups and downs all season long, finding consistency from this franchise player has been a nightmare. What can we expect for the rest of the season and in 2023? Let’s take a look at Correa’s journey and try to predict. 

 

Correa’s Slow Start Eventually Led to an IL Stint

After such a high-profile offseason, the start to Correa’s season can’t be described as anything other than a disaster. Through the first month of the season, Correa carried a slash line of .255/.320/.372. That wasn’t absolutely especially considering the state of offense the first month of the season, but it was the lack of power that was concerning. Through his first 24 games, Correa had two home runs and 11 RBI, the same as Nico Hoerner. He was striking out more than 25% of the time and his walk rate was less than 8%. 

On May 6th, Correa was hit in the finger by a pitch and it eventually required a two-week IL stint. That minor injury gave fantasy managers a brief reprieve from wondering whether they should pull him from their lineups. In hindsight, it ended up being the best thing possible for Correa, as he was able to level-set and clear his head before coming back on May 18th. 

 

 

 

Post-Injury, Correa Looks Like a Fantasy Star

Since the date of his return, Correa has looked like the player of old. Since returning, he is hitting .271/.356/.444 with 12 bombs and 29 RBI. His strikeout rate is back under 20% and his walk rate since May 18th is a strong 12%. He has actually led all shortstops in that category since mid-May. 

Almost everything looked back to normal, but fantasy managers were looking for all the perks that come with an all-power, no-speed player. And they weren’t getting it. Correa has zero steals this year, so the days of swiping 12-14 bases are way behind him. The average, homers, and runs were all ticking up, but the RBIs were still in the tank. He still only has 40 on the season for a Twins team that is top half of the league in runs scored. How can that be since Correa has hit in the top four of the order every game he has played? 

Quite simply, he just isn’t driving in men on base when he gets the opportunity this year. Here are his splits with no men on, men on any base, and men in scoring position this season. 

SituationalAVGOBPSLGOPSwOBAwRC+
Bases Empty.254.338.424.762.336123
Men on Base.283.359.428.787.341126
Men In Scoring Position.227.319.280.599.26371


 

He is putting up his regular numbers with no men on or men on any base. But in the key, opportunistic RBI spots? He has basically been Nicky Lopez. We should simply chalk this up to bad luck because he is a career .273/.360/.450 hitter with runners in scoring position. 

Since he returned from injury, it’s the one part of his game that has prevented him from elevating back into a near-elite tier of shortstop. 

 

What Can We Expect from Carlos Correa in 2023?

It’s hard to truly evaluate Correa for 2023 until we know what he does with his contract situation. Does he give it another go in Minnesota or test the waters in hopes of a better six or seven-year deal? It’s hard to imagine a team giving him a massive, long-term deal he wants after this mixed season, so for now I will assume he runs it back in the Twin Cities and tries again in 2024. 

What we have on our hands is a case of a player shouldering the expectations of a massive new contract, a new city, injured after the first month of the year, and very unlucky with men in scoring position. After that injury reset, we saw a version of Correa much closer to the iteration we have come to rely on for our fantasy squads. 

Target Field has been brutal to right-handed hitters over the last three years, however. In that time, the Twins’ home park ranks 28th in offensive park factor and 24th in homerun factor for righty batters. There’s no short porch anymore like he had in Minute Maid Park, so we should temper our expectations accordingly. Think 20-25 home runs with 85 RBI instead of 30 home runs and 100 men driven in. That’s still mighty useful at the shortstop position, but Correa’s days of being drafted in the first six rounds of a 12-team draft are likely over. 

 

 

 

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