The 2022 MLB Trade Deadline is inching closer and Luis Castillo figures to be one of the hottest names on the market. The Cincinnati Reds’ right-hander and new 2022 MLB All-Star could be the best starting pitcher changing teams this summer as plenty of MLB playoff contenders will be interested in his services. Castillo is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career as he’s stayed near the top of fantasy baseball rankings and headlines the latest MLB trade rumors. Instead of finding answers on the fantasy baseball waiver wire or among the MLB top prospects, managers may be interested in trading for Castillo in the coming weeks to strengthen rosters. If the Reds trade him away, what does this mean for your own fantasy baseball lineups? Would Castillo’s MLB projections change if he’s on a new team? Is the Reds’ ace worth acquiring or trading away in your fantasy leagues before/if he gets dealt in real life? Let’s break it down in the latest Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight. Remember to stay tuned to the latest fantasy baseball MLB news and rumors ahead of the trade deadline.

 

 

Luis Castillo Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 

 

Let’s look at Castillo’s stats so far in this 2022 season before we get into any trade implications. After Friday night’s start against the Tampa Bay Rays, Castillo is sporting a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .206 batting average against over 12 outings. He improved these numbers after tossing seven innings of one-run ball with an 8:1 K:BB ratio against the Rays in that latest outing. His 3-4 record leaves much to be desired, but we can lay blame on the poor Cincinnati run support behind him. 

Furthermore, Castillo has a 3.03 FIP, 3.37 xERA, and 3.32 xFIP. While those numbers suggest maybe a bit of negative regression moving forward, we should take that with a grain of salt. There’s a decent chance he moves to a more pitcher-friendly environment than Great American Ballpark if he changes teams at the deadline. The Reds righty is also tossing 9.4 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings. Check out how Castillo’s first-half stats compare to his previous four full seasons. 

SeasonERAWHIPFIPBAASO/9BB/9
20222.921.103.03.2069.42.9
20213.981.363.75.2519.23.6
20203.211.232.65.23211.43.1
20193.401.143.70.20010.73.7
20184.301.224.32.2428.82.6

Notice how Castillo’s 2022 numbers are career-bests, or close to it, in many areas. There are certainly notable improvements from last year’s down season. Now let’s dive into how and why the Cincinnati starting pitcher is having so much success.

Castillo’s Dominant Fastball

Castillo has always been among the hardest-throwing starters in baseball since he entered the league in 2017. He routinely sits 95-100 mph on the gun with the four-seam fastball and this year is no different. The right-hander is averaging 96.9 mph on the heater. However, Castillo has been much more effective with the four-seamer compared to recent seasons. 

He’s allowing just a .157 batting average, .243 slugging percentage, and .226 wOBA with the pitch. Plus, he boasts a whopping 40.8% whiff rate and 47.4% strikeout rate with the fastball. Compare that to Castillo’s numbers last year when tossing the four-seamer: .257 BA, .478 SLG, .364 wOBA, 30.5% whiff rate, and 31.3% strikeout rate. In fact, check out how the 2022 version of his fastball has been so dominant compared to the previous few seasons. 

SeasonBASLGwOBAWhiff%K%
2022.157.243.22640.847.4
2021.257.478.36430.531.3
2020.300.525.38737.236.2
2019.274.504.38827.517.9
2018.256.534.38519.616.3

Furthermore, Castillo’s 40.8% whiff rate and 47.4% strikeout rate with the fastball actually lead the entire MLB as of Saturday night. In terms of whiff rate on the heater, the next closest big-league pitchers are Eric Lauer (33.8%), Gerrit Cole (32.2), Chris Bassitt (31.9), and Zack Wheeler (29.2). Those marks are notable behind Castillo’s league-leading level. As for his MLB-high K rate on the fastball, the next pitchers on the list are Bassitt (44.4%), Devin Williams (41.8), A.J. Minter (40.0), and Mychal Givens (38.2). 

In Friday night’s start against the Rays, Castillo’s elite fastball was on full display as he left opposing hitters helpless.

Castillo’s Impressive Secondary Pitches

The dominance with the four-seam fastball is a big reason why Castillo is having arguably a career-best season. However, his pitch mix and plus secondary pitches are just as responsible. 

First off, it’s worth mentioning that the Cincinnati starter mixes all four of his pitches in pretty equally to keep opposing batters guessing at the plate. The four-seamer (29.8%), changeup (26.3), sinker (22.2), and slider (21.7) all make up at least 20% of his total pitches – which is a first for his career. In past seasons, Castillo hadn’t used the slider as much while leaning on the four-seam fastball and changeup a bit more often. 

In addition to this balanced pitch mix, Castillo’s changeup and slider have been almost as elite as the four-seamer this season. His slider has allowed just a .170 BA, .277 SLG, and .217 wOBA against while the changeup has been nearly as good, with a .193 BA, .313 SLG, and .289 wOBA allowed. Both are plus pitches for the right-hander and make his fastball even tougher to hit.

MLB Trade Deadline Impact

Now we get to how the upcoming 2022 MLB Trade Deadline could impact Castillo’s rest-of-season stats and projections for fantasy baseball. When it comes to the possibility of changing teams, let’s get one thing out of the way. His opportunity to accrue more wins for your roto or head-to-head leagues will surely increase if Castillo is dealt to a playoff contender before the deadline. As mentioned above, he has just a 3-4 record over 12 starts despite his top-tier ERA and other stats this season. Just three wins over 12 outings despite rocking a 2.92 ERA? 

It’s safe to say the subpar Reds offense has not helped Castillo out when it comes to the win column. Say he lands on the Yankees, Padres, or Dodgers at the deadline. You can bank on more opportunities for wins when he comes out of the game with a lead in the sixth or seventh innings and a better bullpen behind him. Case in point: Castillo has just one credited win over his last seven appearances despite tossing a quality start in six of those and allowing 13 earned runs over 44.1 innings in that span.

The other thing to note with Castillo in terms of a change of scenery is the possible move to a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. It's no secret that Cincy's Great American Ball Park is one of the notable hitters' parks in the league. Interestingly, though, Castillo has better road numbers this season with a 2.25 ERA away compared to a 3.60 ERA at home. 

Like in recent seasons, Castillo is appropriately a top pitcher in current MLB trade rumors ahead of the deadline. He has one more year of team control on his contract, which should have MLB contenders salivating at the potential for Castillo in the rotation for next season as well. Something to note is the righty's better career monthly splits in September/October than in the earlier parts of the season. His 2.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in Sept/Oct are the lowest monthly marks of his career – compared to a 4.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in August or a 4.63 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in May. Those better splits in the last couple of months of the season should have MLB playoff contenders targeting him even more at the deadline.

Considering Castillo has been so good already this season, the prospect of him pitching in a more pitcher-friendly park the rest of the way should have fantasy managers confident. That's assuming he gets dealt before or at the trade deadline, of course. If you have the Reds' righty on your squad right now, you can feel good about expecting elite-level outings from him no matter which team he lands on. If you aren't rostering Castillo, consider making a trade for him before he possibly switches teams. As mentioned above, the potential for more win opportunities on a better real-life MLB team would make Castillo even more valuable in fantasy leagues that use wins. 

 


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