Winning at MLB DFS is a process of finding the correct environment, identifying the right pitcher, and rostering the hitters in the spots where ownership and matchup quality diverge. A great DFS slate has a mix of high-ceiling pitching anchors, clear offensive environments, and a few players the field is sleeping on despite legitimate reasons to be there. The game is about maximizing the combination of production and differentiation. Today's slate has two pitching anchors that most people are going to look at and a handful of stack opportunities where the opposing pitching creates real exploitability. For the most up-to-date MLB DFS projections, lineup optimizer, ownership projections, and daily MLB DFS lineups, visit FantasyAlarm.com.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

  • Slate: DraftKings and FanDuel Main | 7:05 PM ET lock 
  • Weather: LAA @ KC: Yellow/Green - Chance for a late-game delay  •  PHI @ ATL: Yellow - Chance for delay. 
  • Game Totals: CHC/LAD 9.0 (4.5/5.0)  •  DET/CIN 9.5 (4.75/4.75)  •  NYY/HOU 9.0 (4.9/4.1)  •  PHI/ATL 8.5 (4.1/4.4)  •  LAA/KC 8.5 (3.9/4.6)  
  • Top Strikeout Upside: Misiorowski (7.5 K)  •  Gore (6.5 K)  •  Ragans (6.5 K)  •  Flaherty (5.5 K)  •  Wheeler (5.5 K)

💎 PITCHING COACH

Top Tier

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL | vs PIT |  DK $9,400 / FD $10,500)

Analysis: The Brewers phenom has been nearly unhittable this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and allowing just 5.6% barrels. His 37.8% strikeout rate and 15.9% swinging-strike rate rank 2nd in MLB among qualified starting pitchers. The walks are a bit high at 10.8%, but the righty makes up for it with his ability to miss bats. The Miz is a bona fide ace and gets a matchup against an average Pirates offense.  

MacKenzie Gore (TEX | vs ATH |  DK $8,600 / FD $10,100)

Analysis: Gore is coming off a rough outing in Seattle, where he surrendered three home runs, and he walked six batters in his outing before that. Despite the recent hiccups, Gore still has incredible upside, and he'll look to get back on track against the Athletics. His strikeout rate is a career-best 32.4% through five starts this season. He also gets the best matchup of the top three starters. 

Cole Ragans (KC | vs LAA |  DK $8,500 / FD $8,500)

Analysis: The top end of this pitching slate is loaded with strikeout upside, and Ragans only adds to that. Like Gore, he is coming off a rough start where he allowed three home runs. Ragans was struck by a line drive in the pitching hand three starts ago, and you have to wonder if he was still dealing with some soreness. I'll give him a pass on the last two outings, but he has been in poor form since that incident. The Angels don't strike out quite as much against lefties, but Ragans is live for double-digit Ks in any matchup when he is right. 

Value Plays

Jeffrey Springs (ATH | vs TEX |  DK $8,000 / FD $9,100)

Analysis: Yet another excellent pitcher who was tormented by the home run ball in his most recent outing. Springs still has strong numbers overall this season despite allowing seven runs last time out. His strikeouts are back above average after dipping last season, and he gets arguably the best matchup on the board. The Rangers have been awful against left-handed pitching, posting just a 65 wRC+ and striking out at a league-high 31.9%. 

Walbert Urena (LAA | vs KC |  DK $6,600 / FD $6,500)

Analysis: Angels rookie Walbert Urena has not had a ton of minor league success, but he has always had a huge fastball to dream on. He's now sitting in the upper 90s with both of his fastballs and is coming off an incredible first big-league start, in which he struck out eight Padres. The Royals have been a disappointment offensively this season, but they will still be fairly popular on this slate due to Urena's inexperience. The 22-year-old will look to recreate the magic of his first start. 

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Ben Rice (1B, NYY |  DK $5,500 / FD $4,300)

Analysis: Rice has been an absolute monster this season, posting a .400 ISO and .485 wOBA against right-handed pitching. His matchup tonight comes against Mike Burrows, who has been crushed by lefties this season. The righty has allowed a .241 ISO and struck out just 15.4% of lefties. 

Kevin McGonigle (SS/3B, DET  |  DK $4,700 / FD $3,300)

Analysis: Reds starter Brady Singer has long had a lefty power problem, including last season when lefties beat him up for a .210 ISO. The Tigers phenom is looking like an AL ROY contender and is off to an excellent start to his career. He has crushed righties so far with a .213 ISO and .417 wOBA. 

Max Muncy (3B, LAD |  DK $4,600 / FD $3,800)

Analysis: Muncy managed just a single and a run as a core play yesterday, but he gets another great spot tonight against Colin Rea and a decimated Cubs bullpen. Muncy ranks 5th in MLB with a 167 wRC+, and he's still priced in the mid-range. 

Riley Greene (OF, DET  |  DK $4,200 / FD $3,100)

Analysis: The Tigers have an implied run total of nearly five runs against righty Brady Singer, who has struggled with lefties in his career. Greene posted an outstanding .287 ISO and .373 wOBA against righties last season. 

Value Bats

Trent Grisham (OF, NYY  |  DK $3,700 / FD $2,900): The Yankees exploded for 12 runs last night and now get a matchup against a pitcher with a 6.75 ERA this season. Grisham should hit lead off again and is one of the top value bats on the slate, considering Burrows' extreme struggles with lefties this season. 

Jazz Chisholm (2B, NYY  |  DK $4,000 / FD $2,700): Chisholm appears to be heating up finally, with a home run in each of his last two games and a total of five hits. Burrows has allowed a .241 ISO and managed to strike out just 15.4% of lefties this season.   

Michael Busch (1B, CHC  |  DK $3,700 / FD $2,800): The Cubs were shut down for six innings last game before breaking through for six runs in the final three frames to steal a W in LA. Busch posted another two hits and now has three straight multi-hit games. He remains too cheap for his talent level, given his extended slump to begin the season.  

Jac Caglianone (OF, KC  |  DK $2,800 / FD $2,600): The Royals face a 22-year-old righty making his second career MLB start. Caglianone is lacking experience of his own, but he possesses huge power near minimum price in a winnable matchup.  

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: New York Yankees | Targets: Judge, Rice, Bellinger, Chisholm, Grisham | Opponent: HOU / Mike Burrows (RHP) | NYY implied

Why: The Yankees have the 2nd-highest implied team total on the slate, behind only a much more expensive Dodgers team. Sure, Judge and Rice are appropriately priced up, but Grisham, Bellinger, and Chisholm are cheap lefties who make the stack very affordable. Burrows has been crushed by lefties this season, and the Yankees are loaded with lefty power hitters. 

Primary Stack: Detroit Tigers | Targets: McGonigle, Greene, Carpenter, Keith, Dingler | Opponent: CIN / Brady Singer (RHP) | DET implied

Why: The Tigers get a massive park upgrade for offense going into Great American. They also face Brady Singer, who has registered just a 14.5% strikeout rate and a 5.32 ERA this season. Lefties in particular look great, as Singer surrendered a .210 ISO to lefties last year compared to a .111 ISO to righties. 

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers | Targets: Ohtani, Tucker, Muncy, Freeman, Pages, Hernandez, Smith | Opponent: CHC / Colin Rea (RHP) | LAD implied

Why: Cubs starter Colin Rea has outperformed his peripherals for several seasons, but he seems to keep getting better and showing even more skills. This season, he owns an elite walk rate (5.2%) and groundball rate (52.9%). Despite his success, the Dodgers are still the best offense in baseball and should always be considered a priority. Additionally, the Cubs' bullpen has been decimated by injuries over the first month of the season, and there should be plenty of late-game opportunities if they can't get to Rea.  

Contrarian Stack: Chicago Cubs | Targets: Busch, Bregman, Happ, Suzuki, Ballesteros, Hoerner | Opponent: LAD / Roki Sasaki (RHP) | CHC implied

Why: The Cubs have won 10 games in a row after a come-from-behind victory in the late innings last night. They get a decent spot against Roki Sasaki tonight, who has really struggled with his command since coming to MLB. He has also allowed nearly 44% hard contact and over 2 HR/9 on his way to a 6.11 ERA this season. Sasaki clearly has loads of talent, but he is still working through how best to tap into it. 

Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Angels | Targets: Neto, Trout, Adell, Soler, Peraza, O'Hoppe | Opponent: LAA / Cole Ragans (RHP) | LAA implied

Why: The Angels have been a much better offense against lefties this season, posting a 107 wRC+ and striking out far less than they do against righties. They face an elite pitcher today in Cole Ragans, but he has been in awful form over his last two starts after getting hit in the pitching hand with a line drive before that. Last start, he allowed seven runs, including three home runs, and he walked eight batters. The Angels are loaded with RH power that can take advantage if Ragans still isn't back in form. 

 

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

The "Chalk" (Popular)The "Pivot" (Low Owned)The Winning Logic
SP Ragans (highly owned)SP Springs (moderately owned)Ragans has struggled badly with command this season and projects as the 2nd-most popular pitcher on the slate. Pivot to Springs at half the ownership. 
Yankees stack vs Burrows (Grisham, Rice, Bellinger, Judge, Chisholm projected above 15%)Cubs stack vs Sasaki (no Cubs hitter is projected above 10%)The Cubs have won 10 straight games, averaging 7.2 runs/game in that stretch. Sasaki has struggled with control and hard contact. 
Royals stacks vs Urena (Witt, Massey, Garcia, Perez, Pasquantino all >10%)  Angels stack vs Ragans (only Neto >10%) The Royals are going to be popular against an inexperienced but talented young pitcher. The Angels should fly under the radar against an elite pitcher who has had plenty of struggles this season. 

🎯 Heart of the Order

The core pieces for every lineup you build today.

SP1  Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) 

SP Pivot Jeffrey Springs (ATH)  

Core Hitter Ben Rice (NYY

Core Hitter Kevin McGonigle (DET)  

Core Hitter Riley Greene (DET) 

Value Hitter Trent Grisham (NYY) 

Value Hitter Jazz Chisholm (NYY) 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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