Happy Saturday, April 11th. We have a seven-game MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. 

Make sure you are checking for the most up-to-date MLB DFS projections, lineup optimizer, ownership projections, and daily MLB DFS lineups. As always, we'll break it all down and give you the edges to build around. Let's get into it.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

  • Slate: 7:07 PM ET Lock | DraftKings Main
  • Top Game Totals: TEX/LAD 8.87 - LAD 5.56 • COL/SD 8.86 - SD 5.33 • CLE/ATL 8.37 - ATL 4.31  • WAS/MIL 8.34 - MIL 5.14 • BOS/STL 8.33 - BOS 4.61
  • SP Ownership Tier: Logan Webb (SF, highly owned)  • Emmett Sheehan (LAD, highly owned) •  Kyle Harrison (MIL, moderately owned)  • Luis Castillo (SEA, moderately owned)
  • Highest K-Projections: Emmett Sheehan (LAD)  •  Logan Webb (SF)  •  Kyle Harrison (MIL)  • Luis Castillo (SEA) • Jack Leiter (TEX)
  • Weather: Clean across the board. No weather concerns.

💎 PITCHING COACH

The Top Tier

Logan Webb (SF | at BAL)

Analysis: Webb struggled in his first start of the season, but he has gotten progressively better in each of the two starts since. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for years now and is fully deserving of being the highest-owned pitcher on the board today. Baltimore has been an above-average offense this season, but their 25.2% strikeout rate against RHP is the ninth-highest in the league. 

Kyle Harrison (MIL | vs WAS)

Analysis: With all due respect to Luis Castillo and the Washington Nationals, I don't understand how early ownership projections have Harrison and Castillo as similar plays today. Castillo draws the Astros, who posted a 98 wRC+ (20th) and 21.7% strikeout rate (9th-lowest) against righties last season. Harrison gets the Naiontals, who posted a 68 wRC+ (27th) and 25.3% strikeout rate (3rd-highest) against lefties. Sure, Castillo has extremely favorable home splits, but the ballpark does not close the gap enough for me. Harrison is my preferred pairing or top pivot from Webb. 

Jack Leiter (TEX | at LAD)

Analysis: The Dodgers are the best offense in baseball and have the highest implied team total on the slate, so proceed with caution. However, Rangers starter Jack Leiter has been lights out in his first two outings of the season. In his first start, he mowed down eight Orioles and allowed just 2 runs in six innings. He followed it up with five innings of one-run ball and nine strikeouts against the Reds. Leiter has used his change-up more than any pitch other than his fastball, and it helped him strike out more lefties than righties last season. He will need that weapon to be on today to neutralize the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy. 

Value Plays

Emmett Sheehan (LAD | vs TEX)

Analysis: Sheehan has allowed four runs in each of his first starts and will look to get his season on track today. The Rangers posted a below-average 95 wRC+ against righties last season, so it's a decent matchup for the young righty. Sheehan posted an electric 73.1 innings last season with a strikeout rate above 30%, so there is a ton of upside if he can gather his form again.  

Lance McCullers (HOU | at SEA)

Analysis: McCullers has battled multiple injuries over the last 4+ years, but he looks to be healthy and back to form this season. He was dominant in his first outing of the season, with seven innings of one-run ball and nine strikeouts. He allowed four runs in his next start, but again had the whiffs rolling in, with four strikeouts in four innings. Seattle has struck out at the 4th-highest rate so far this season after whiffing at the 7th-highest rate last season. 

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD)

Analysis: As awesome a low-owned tournament play as I think Jack Leiter is, it's still undeniable that Dodgers lefties are in a great spot. Leiter whiffed more lefties last season and held them to a .138 ISO, but a .200 xISO suggests he was a little lucky in the power prevention department. This season, he has surrendered a .286 ISO to lefties despite otherwise dominating. 

Ohtani already appears to be over his slow start as he's launched three homers in his last seven games. He is, of course, the best hitter on the planet and rocked righties for a .378 ISO a season ago.  

Rafael Devers (1B, SF)

Analysis: Devers is off to a bit of a slow start once again, but he can turn it around at any moment. He posted yet another elite 135 wRC+ last season after a dreadful start and subsequent trade out of Boston. Tonight, he gets a matchup against Chris Bassitt, who has struggled with lefty power throughout his career. Last season, he allowed a .179 ISO and struck out just 20.8% of lefties. 

Jackson Merrill (OF, SD)

Analysis: Merrill wasn't quite able to repeat the success of his incredible rookie campaign, but he still had an excellent second season in San Diego despite multiple injuries. He was especially dominant against righties, finishing with a 135 wRC+ and .226 ISO. He should hit in a premium run-producing spot in the order against Feltner, who allowed a .190 ISO to lefties last season and struck out just 18.5% of batters. 

Value Bats (Salary Savers)

  • Gavin Sheets (1B/OF, SD): Sheets posted an above-average 111 wRC+ in his first season in San Diego, and he had an elite 135 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. He faces a low-strikeout righty in Feltner tonight. 
  • Max Muncy (3B, LAD): Muncy hits in the middle of the best lineup in baseball. He posted an elite .247 ISO against RHP last season.   
  • Gary Sanchez (1B/C, MIL): Sanchez owns a 112 wRC+ and .259 ISO against LHP in his career. The Nationals' Foster Griffin is attempting a return to MLB after three successful seasons in Japan. He's been good through two starts but remains unproven stateside. 
  • Jake Cronenworth (2B, SD): Keep an eye on the batting order position for Cronenworth, as he jumps up the priority list if he grabs the leadoff assignment. He posted a solid 118 wRC+ against righties last season. 

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Targets: Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman, Muncy 

Opponent: Texas Rangers / Jack Leiter | LAD implied 5.55 

The Dodgers have the highest implied run total on the board despite a tough matchup with the talented Jack Leiter. They have been the best offense in baseball this season with a 146 wRC+. They lead the league with 35 home runs and 6.38 runs/game. The little damage Leiter has given up this season has come at the hands of lefties, and all the Dodgers best hitters happen to be lefties. 

Primary Stack: San Diego Padres 

Targets: Tatis, Machado, Merrill, Cronenworth, Sheets 

Opponent: Colorado Rockies / Ryan Feltner | SD implied 5.33

San Diego is one of three teams with an implied run total above five runs this evening. They get a matchup against Ryan Feltner, who posted just an 18.5% strikeout rate last season. The Padres have struggled a bit this season, but they were above average (105 wRC+) against righties last season. Cronenworth and Sheets are two of the top value plays on the slate if you don't want to spend up for Tatis and Machado. 

Primary Stack: Milwaukee Brewers 

Targets: Yelich, Contreras, Sanchez, Turang, Lockridge

Opponent: Washington Nationals / Foster Griffin | MIL implied 5.14

It remains to be seen if Foster Griffin can make a successful return to MLB after three years in Japan, but the first two starts have gone well. He gets a tough assignment tonight against a Milwaukee team that ranks in the top five this season. Conteras and Sanchez have both mashed lefties in their careers, Yelich was solid against them last season, and Lockridge is a cheap platoon option in the middle of the order. 

Contrarian Stack: San Francisco Giants 

Targets: Devers, Adames, Chapman, Arraez, Lee 

Opponent: Baltimore Orioles / Chris Bassitt | SF implied 4.08 

The Giants are getting a park upgrade in Baltimore and are attracting very little ownership against veteran righty Chris Bassitt. Devers is one of the top plays on the slate, while Arraez and Lee are cheap lefties whose contact-over-power approach works better in a stack. Bassitt struggles much more with power lefties, but Adames and Chapman can take anyone deep. 

Contrarian Stack: Colorado Rockies

Targets: Goodman, Moniak, Johnston, Rumfield, Tovar

Opponent: San Diego Padres / German Marquez | COL implied 3.53 

The Rockies get a matchup with an old friend, German Marquez. The righty no longer has the skills that made him the Rockies' ace for multiple seasons. Last season, he allowed an 11% barrel rate and 1.64 HR/9. He allowed an ISO above .220 to both sides of the plate. The Rockies are not a good offense, but this is an elite matchup. 

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

The "Chalk" (Popular)The "Pivot" (Low Owned)The Winning Logic
Webb (highly owned, RHP vs BAL)Harrison (moderate ownership, LHP vs WAS)Webb has been fine since a rough OD, but he draws a tough matchup. Harrison has the upside to match him at a cheaper price and lower ownership. 
LAD chalk (Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman - LHH vs Leiter RHP)SD vs Feltner (Merrill, Sheets, Cronenworth - LHH vs RHP Feltner)Leiter has pitched like a CY contender. If you believe in the breakout, pivoting off the high-owned Dodgers makes a lot of sense. 
Sheehan (highly owned, RHP vs TEX)McCullers (low ownership, RHP vs SEA)Sheehan has struggled through two starts and is projected to be the second-most popular pitcher. McCullers has flashed huge swing-and-miss ability this season. 

🎯 Heart of the Order

The foundation for every lineup you build today.

SP1 Kyle Harrison (MIL) | MIL may have unlocked Harrison, who is sporting a 34% K-rate and 2.61 ERA through two starts. 

Core Bat Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | The best hitter on the planet against a pitcher with issues limiting lefty power. 

Core Bat Rafael Devers (SF) | Elite hitter against a pitcher with issues limiting lefty power. 

Core Bat Jackson Merrill (SD) | 135 wRC+ and .226 ISO against righties last season, facing a pitcher with an 18.5% strikeout rate last year. 

Value Core Gavin Sheets (SD) | 135 wRC+ and .202 ISO against righties last season, facing a pitcher with an 18.5% strikeout rate last year. 

Value Core Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 112 wRC+ and .259 ISO against LHP in his career, facing an unproven pitcher who spent three years in Japan. 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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