Happy Saturday, April 4th. We have an 8-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The Phillies' offense in Coors is the most obvious chalk with an implied run total of more than seven runs. Jesus Luzardo is the top pitcher on the slate, but there are plenty of options to get away from that chalk. 

You'll get our top spend-ups and value plays on the mound and at the plate, our favorite stacks, and some leverage to go along with it using our DFS tools. Let's get into it.

 

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

SlateSaturday Main Slate | 8 Games | Lock Time: 7:05 PM ET
Top Game TotalPHI/COL 10.93 (PHI implied 7.35, COL implied 3.58) | Lock: 8:10 PM ET
Game Totals (ranked)PHI/COL 10.93  -  ATL/ARI 9.94  -  SEA/LAA 9.89  -  CIN/TEX 8.89  -  CHC/CLE 8.32
Highest K-ProjectionsJesus Luzardo (PHI)  -  Max Meyer (MIA)  -  Ryan Weathers (NYY)  -  Emerson Hancock (SEA)  -  Michael Soroka (ARI) 
Weather Risk

TB/MIN: Yellow - Chance for delay

CHC/CLE: Orange - Delay likely, chance for postponement

Top Expected OwnershipJesus Luzardo (~35%)  -  Schwarber/Harper/Turner (25-30% each)  -  Raleigh (~25%)

💎 PITCHING COACH

TOP TIER

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies 

Analysis: Luzardo put together an excellent season for the Phillies last year and earned himself a five-year contract extension. He posted a borderline elite strikeout rate (28.5%) and an average walk rate (7.5%), while estimators like xERA (3.33) and SIERA (3.40) had him as a much better pitcher than his 3.92 ERA. His first start this season did not go well, as he allowed six runs and two home runs to the Rangers. Tonight, he pitches in a tough environment in Coors Field, but the Rockies are again expected to be one of the worst offenses in baseball. Last season, they struck out at the second-highest rate and ranked 28th in wOBA despite playing half their games in the most hitter-friendly park. Their 74 wRC+, which adjusts for factors like ballpark, ranked dead last.  

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

Analysis: Soroka put up a sneaky good season as a starter for the Nationals last season, posting an above average 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.0% walk rate across 16 starts. Estimators like xERA (3.52) and SIERA (3.71) had him as a significantly better pitcher than his 4.87 ERA. Unfortunately, he was injured after a trade to the contending Cubs and didn't make a further impact. His injury history forced him to take a one-year deal with the D-backs this offseason, but that may turn out to be a steal. In his first start of the season, Soroka tossed five dominant innings against the Tigers and recorded 10 strikeouts to only one walk. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Braves, who are off to a great start this season. Still, the upside at Soroka's price tag is very much worth the risk. 

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins 

Analysis: Meyer is looking to put together a healthy season after he was able to make only 12 starts for the Marlins last year. He did flash some promising signs, as each of his 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate, and 49.2% groundball rate was above average. His first start this season was disappointing, as he allowed three runs in five innings to the lowly Rockies. Tonight, he gets a difficult assignment in Yankee Stadium, but there is upside here despite the risk. The Yankees offer a lot of swing-and-miss throughout their lineup, and they struck out at the 6th-highest rate in baseball last year. 

Note: I am avoiding pitchers in the Cubs/Guardians game due to weather risk, or Shota Imanaga would be the pick here.

VALUE PLAYS

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners 

Analysis: Hancock is my favorite pitcher on the slate, price considered. In his first start of the season, he absolutely dominated the Guardians with nine strikeouts and one walk across six shutout innings. The righty deployed a massively different pitch mix than last season, and it looks like he may have unlocked some upside. He dropped the usage of his below-average sinker way down in favor of a four-seamer that looks like it will miss many more bats. He also deployed a new sweeper that looks to have serious potential. Usage on the pitch was nearly 26%, and the whiff rate was excellent at 42.9%. In addition to the new pitch mix, Hancock gets an elite matchup against an Angels team that struck out at the highest rate in the league last season.   

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees 

Analysis: Weathers has been very good when he's been on the mound over the last two seasons, but he has unfortunately had trouble staying healthy. His first start this season was a huge success, as he allowed just one run across 4.1 innings while striking out seven Mariners. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Marlins team that traded him away over the offseason. They didn't strike out much last season, but they also offer very little power threat. 

 

💎 HITTING COACH

ELITE BATS

Kyle Schwarber (OF, PHI)   DK: $6,500 |  FD: $4,400

Analysis: The Phillies have a massive implied run total over 7 runs after they put up 10 in Coors Field yesterday. Schwarber is the top bat on the slate coming off a homer, two walks, two runs, and two RBI last game. He'll face a lefty opener in his first plate appearance, but he should get two looks off of the bulk reliever, who is expected to be Chase Dollander. The righty struck out just 15.4% of LH batters and allowed a massive .220 ISO to them last season.  

Bryce Harper (1B, PHI)   DK: $5,300 |  FD: $4,000

Analysis: Harper gets the same situation as his powerful teammate above. Elite park for hitting, lefty opener, and an expected bulk reliever who was crushed by lefties last season. Harper finished with an excellent .226 ISO and .361 wOBA last year. 

Cal Raleigh (C, SEA)   DK: $5,600 |  FD: $3,800

Analysis: Raleigh projects to be nearly as popular as the Phillies sluggers in Coors, but that's because he is in a great spot himself. Kochanowicz struck out just 14.4% of LH batters and allowed a .226 ISO to them last season. Raleigh posted an absurd .316 ISO against righties last year. 

VALUE BATS (DK under $4,000 | FD under $3,000)

  • Bryson Stott (2B, PHI)  DK: $3,900 |  FD: $3,300:  Bats 5th in the highest-implied lineup. Speed adds SB upside on top of the run-scoring floor.
  • Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI)  DK: $3,500 |  FD: $3,300:  Marsh will hit down in the order but he still has plenty of upside in Coors. 
  • Jordan Beck (OF, COL)  DK: $3,300 |  FD: $3,500:  Strong .197 ISO versus LHP last season. Rockies will be unowned against the most popular pitcher on the slate. 
  • Trent Grisham (OF, NYY) DK: $3,500  |  FD: $3,100: Meyer actually had reverse splits last year but that can be noisy. Grisham should lead off and posted an outstanding .251 ISO last season. 

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: Philadelphia Phillies

Targets: Turner, Schwarber, Harper, Stott, Marsh, Crawford

Opponent: Colorado Rockies | 10.93 total | PHI implied 7.31 | Lock: 8:10 PM ET

The Phillies have a massive implied run-total at Coors Field, and deserve to be incredibly popular. A lefty opener is a solid strategy by Colorado to try to neutralize Schwarber/Herper in their first AB, but ultimately, it's not likely to matter much. 

Primary Stack: Seattle Mariners 

Targets: Donovan, Raleigh, Rodriguez, Naylor, Arozarena 

Opponent: Los Angeles Angels | 9.89 total | SEA implied 5.83 | Lock: 9:38 PM ET

Seattle has the 2nd-highest implied run total against a groundballer with very little strikeout ability and command issues. There should be plenty of traffic on the bases for a powerful offense that is getting a park upgrade in Anaheim. 

Pivot Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks 

Targets: Marte, Carroll, Perdomo, Moreno, Del Castillo 

Opponent: Atlanta Braves | 9.92 total | ATL implied 5.12 | Lock: 7:15 PM ET

Elder was solid in his season debut, but he's been susceptible to power in his career. He showed reverse splits last year, but was destroyed by lefties in his career up to that point. He will attempt to use his ground-ball skills to compensate for his lack of strikeouts. 

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

The plays below identify where you can generate lineup differentiation while still accessing quality run environments.

The Chalk (Popular)

The Pivot (Low Owned)

The Winning Logic

Jesus Luzardo (top proj SP, ~35% own)Michael Soroka (ARI, ~5% own)Luzardo struggled in his season debut and is pitching in Coors.
PHI stack (Schwarber/Harper ~30% own each)ARI stack (Marte/Carroll ~10% own each)MLB is a high variance sport, especially when we're talking about an offense in a single game.
Cal Raleigh (~25% own)Aaron Judge (NYY, ~15% own)Judge has multi-HR upside in any matchup. Meyer had reverse splits last season, allowing more power to RH hitters.
Ryan Weathers (NYY, ~30% own)Emerson Hancock (SEA, ~18% own)Hancock struggled last season but he has made some changes that give him a chance at a breakout this season. 
   

🎯 HEART OF THE ORDER

The foundation for every lineup you build today.

Emerson Hancock (SP1) - DK $6,600 | FD $8,800: New pitch mix and elite matchup give him incredible upside at far lower ownership than the chalk Luzardo/Weathers pairing. 

Kyle Schwarber (Core Bat) - DK $6,500 | FD $4,400: The top bat on the slate with elite power in an elite offensive park. 

Bryce Harper (Core Bat) - DK $5,300 | FD $4,000: Significant discount from Schwarber and nearly as much upside. Starting your PHI stack here and working down the order would be a unique build. 

Trea Turner (Core Bat) - DK $5,500 | FD $4,000: Leading off in Coors with some serious run producers waiting to drive him in. 

Bryson Stott (Core Value Bat) - DK $3,900 | FD $3,700: Cheap bat in the middle of the order for a team implied to score over 7 runs. 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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