Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 9 NFL running back climate…

1) Middle Finger to Murtha

So this was an interesting week to say the least, as a collection of backs that I typically bash really stuck it to me on Sunday. Particularly, Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray, and Mark Ingram – this week’s top three scoring rushers – made me eat my words. Gordon racked up over 30 points in standard formats, by tallying 261 total yards, Murray scored three touchdowns, and Ingram rushed for 158 yards on only 15 carries, while also getting into the end zone. Regardless of my nemeses performing well, there is no need to fret… Nostra-Dom-Us still posted tremendous numbers. 

2) Top Heavy Sunday

Speaking of those top three performances, aside from them – save for a couple more here and there – this week was rather top heavy. If you didn’t own any of the handful of big number running back performances, your chances of winning your matchup was slim. Either defenses stepped up their game this weekend, or the lack of depth at the running back position was apparent this week due to all of the teams on byes. Just something I noticed.

3) Old Reliable…

I figured this week it was time to give a shout-out to Frank Gore. Not only because he scored two touchdowns and helped his team get a huge win on the road, but because of the consistency he has shown over the duration of his career. Despite traumatic injuries suffered early on in his career, the guy has managed to not miss a game since 2010, keeping him on pace to enter the top-10 of nearly every relevant rushing category when he finally decides to hang ‘em up. For a Colts team that is really struggling defensively, it’s good to see the weathered veteran take responsibility and try to control the pace of the game with his touches. Against all odds, he is doing yeomen’s work, protecting the ball, and making the most of every opportunity. Andrew Luck should be happy to have him.

4) Acreage Available – 49ers offering rushing yardage at little to no cost

This past week, the 49ers became the first team in NFL history to allow a 100-yard rusher in seven straight games. You may be surprised by that stat, however not think that it’s crippling, until of course I tell you that they haven’t even come close to ending that streak. In fact, the 49ers are allowing at least one running back each week nearly 140 yards rushing during this seven-game stretch – a number that seems to keep going up as the season moves along.

Beyond the streak, the 49ers are allowing an astounding 192 rushing yards per game and a whopping 5.3 yards per rush this season. That keeps them on the historic pace to allow over 3,000 rushing yards this season, which is a mark that has only been passed once before (1978 Buffalo Bills: 3,228 rushing yards).

Going forward, based off of their remaining schedule and what history tells us about bad defenses, it is really tough to imagine that they will be able to get this issue in order. Here is the list of backs that San Fran will be facing for the remainder of the season…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Safe to say that you can pretty much guarantee each week going forward that the 49ers opposing running back will be listed on my Nostra-Dom-Us picks of the week. Based off of the circumstances and daunting data, can you really blame me?

5) Nostra-Dom-Us Honorable Mention…

Last week I did a state of the union of sorts in regards to my preseason predictions of my running back awards. I failed to mention my preseason thoughts on Le’Veon Bell and his place in my prediction for potential “Backfield Bust of the Year.” He was listed as my “dark horse” candidate for the award this season and as we are now half way through the year, I again raise the question, “was he worth the sixth overall ranking amongst running backs?” He was suspended for the first three games this season, and beyond that has yet to get into the end zone. He also has failed to rush for over 100 yards in any game yet this season and doesn’t appear to be tallying total yards as easily as he used to. Likely his downturn in production is due to the loss of Big Ben for an extended period of time and also due to the decline in the Steelers offensive line production, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has not performed anywhere near his lofty fantasy standards in 2016. He’s fine to continue to start as RB1 in PPR leagues, as he is still one of the most talented receiving backs in the league, but with fantasy playoff pictures really beginning to take shape, I can almost guarantee that mostly anyone who used a first or second rounder on Bell is on the outside looking in.

NOSTRA-DOM-US PREDICTS

ELITE PLAY

David Johnson ($8,400 on DraftKings) vs. SF Defense

As I stated above, any running back facing San Francisco going forward has a good chance of making it on this list, however this week in particular looks extra juicy. I have made it clear that David Johnson is right now the most productive and important back in football, so considering the fact that he is facing an all-time bad defense in Week 10 bodes really well for his fantasy outlook. Expect incredible production from Johnson on Sunday – this week’s most expensive yet potentially most valuable fantasy back.

AFFORDABLE PLAY

DeMarco Murray ($6,900 on DraftKings) vs. GB Defense

I know that the Packers have the league’s top ranked rush defense, but the reality is that they only have played two teams that can actually run the ball this season. You know what happened in both of those matchups? The teams were successful on the ground against them. The Cowboys and Falcons combined for 281 rushing yards against the Packers in Weeks 6 and 8, which is an average of 140 yards per game and 5.4 yards per rush in each contest. I believe that they will struggle once again in Week 10 on the road against the Titans – a team that features one of the league’s most potent rushing attacks.

Beyond what the Packers offer or lack there of, DeMarco Murray – despite being a bit banged up – has gotten into the end zone in four straight game and nine times overall this season. He’s averaging 22.6 points per contest on DraftKings and has fallen below 21.0 points in just one game this season. That is consistency that I am willing to pay for and rely upon each week, even against the league’s top ranked rush defense.

BARGAIN PLAY

Kenneth Dixon ($3,900 on DraftKings) vs. CLE Defense

Unfortunately Baltimore has fallen victim to a slew of tough ground matchups consecutively, halting the progress that they could make running the football, but I believe this is the week in which they will break through.

Let me explain myself on a couple of levels. First of all, the Ravens are taking on the Browns who feature the second worst rush defense in the league, so I like my chances there. Secondly, I am giving you Dixon over Terrance West because while he hasn’t proven it yet, I firmly believe that he is the better back and so does the coaching staff. Coming off of their Week 8 bye, coach Harbaugh said, “I would love to see [Kenneth Dixon] on the field more.” He followed that by nearly splitting the carries in Week 9 against the Steelers between West and Dixon, leading many to speculate that Dixon will see even more action in Week 10. Nothing particular against Terrance West, but I have been a fan of Dixon’s since his days in college days at Louisiana Tech… Here’s a good example why

While the six touchdowns were against weak competition, you can still see his skillset on display here. This video is just a microcosm of an all-time great collegiate career from Dixon. My belief is that this job already would have been Dixon’s had he not missed over a month of action with a torn MCL. Considering this, at only $3,900 consider Dixon a dark horse play here, as he will do damage against the Browns if given the opportunities that I anticipate he will get on Thursday night.  

FLYER PLAY

Paul Perkins ($3,500 on DraftKings) vs. CIN Defense

Another rookie here, but for similar reasons to my Dixon pick, I believe that Perkins will be a great flyer play this week. It’s not that I think that Cincinnati has a bad rush defense, but with the way that the Giants are beginning to come alive as a team, they are really only a ground game away from contending.

I said prior to the season that Perkins is one of the more undervalued players entering 2016 and that although drafted in the fifth round, he was the second best running back in the draft behind only Zeke Elliott. Currently I believe that he is the best back on the Giants roster, and the coaching staff is beginning to come around on that as well. He evenly split touches with Rashad Jennings last week and is sure to see an increase this week considering he outperformed Jennings. If you are unfamiliar with his game, here is a glimpse of what Perkins was able to do in college against an always-tough Stanford defense…

I think that Perkins has a real shot to take over this backfield, and it should all begin this week with a few stutter steps like that. At only $3,500 it’s hardly considered overspending considering he is likely to lead the Giants backfield in touches. Give him a look if you are looking to save on a value back.