How MLB's Sticky Substance Crackdown Affects Fantasy Baseball

Major league baseball played through a pandemic, produced a World Champion and continues tweaking its rules under new commissioner, Rob Manfred. However, with run production trending down along with batting averages and strikeout rates spiking, do pitchers own an inherent advantage due to foreign substances? 

It's a topic already discussed in articles for The Athletic by Eno Sarris in which he compared the differences between sunscreen and advanced grip substances making enforcement of spin rates difficult. Then, Sports Illustrated entered the fray with a column exploring the many layers of increased spins across baseball with the Los Angeles Dodgers leading the way labeling pitch doctoring the biggest scandal in sports within a column by Stephanie Apstein and Alex Prewitt. 

Due to the evolving news cycle surrounding the issue, claiming one proper approach to all of this would be frivolous. However, fantasy players need to prepare for the worst. As if all the elbow, shoulder and soft tissue injuries populating the landscape do not provide enough to worry about along with COVID protocols, potential suspensions due to a crackdown may be on the horizon. 

Here's some informative tweets from Buster Olney of ESPN: 

Instead of 10-day injured list losses, suspension without pay may affect pitchers amidst policing the sport. He followed up this initial tweet with this tidbit as well: 

This started rather innocuously when Joe West confiscated Giovanny Gallegos ’ hat on May 26th: 

It sparked some conversation and it's debated by many reporters who cover the MLB on the national level: 

Then, umpire Joe West struck again talking with Craig Kimbrel before he later appeared for a save chance in a different series but widely renowned for the spot on his brim through the years: 

Kimbrel notched the save in this outing but with a reduced spin rate on his four-seam fastball compared to prior outings this season. Things which make you go hmmmm. 

From a hitter's standpoint, two veteran major league batters openly spoke out about the rampant "cheating”. Within the Sports Illustrated column linked above, this quote from Charlie Blackmon resonates with his peers: 

In his eyes, using a substance for improved grip helps from a safety outlook but if it's tacky substances for increased spin rates and movement, then it's cheating. As Eno Sarris mused in his article, it's a slippery slope. Teams reward pitchers with optimal spin rates creating the need for veterans to reinvent themselves for longevity or financial gain. 

Two of the most named arms in all of the speculative reports earned top dollar on the free agency market. Trevor Bauer signed a unique $102 million dollar contract with the chance to make $40 million this season. Gerrit Cole agreed to a $324 million dollar contract with his childhood favorite New York Yankees. 

During each pitcher's first start following the initial reports of a crackdown, their spin rates declined. It can be performance based or without being privy to any information from the teams, an adjustment by each in avoidance of suspension occurred. Again, it's all speculative. 

Starting with Cole's most recent outing giving up five earned runs to Tampa Bay: 

However, as noted pitch analyst Max Bay noted on Thursday after Cole's outing, it's happened before in his spin data: 

It's far too early to suggest Cole knowingly doctored baseballs for personal gain, but his upcoming starts feel like they will be under a microscope. 

Speaking of which, Bauer will pitch under similar scrutiny the rest of the season. Here's an example of a tweet during his outing on Sunday against Atlanta: 

He left this start with a quality outing firing six innings giving up six hits, three earned runs and four walks with seven strikeouts. Good, but not great. 

So, now what? How does the fantasy community react to all of this? Well, it's complex. There's no one way to fix the issues facing the major leagues in all of this. Whether it's more "Hat Gate” incidents, or videos capturing substances in belts or gloves in some sort of witch hunt. However, seeing more moments like this watching games may occur if pitchers do not adjust how they use foreign substances: 

In a separate article for The Athletic by Dan Hayes covering the statements by Josh Donaldson , an outspoken hitter against the perceived cheating by current pitchers, hopes a crackdown on substances levels the playing field in the major leagues. Within the column: 

With this in mind, check out the league average slash lines from the last three years with strikeout rates included: 

2021: .236/.312/.396 with a 24.2 strikeout percentage

2020: .245/.322/.418 with a 23.4 strikeout percentage

2019: .252/.323/.435 with a 23 strikeout percentage

In two years batting averages dropped 16 points with an almost 40 point dip in slugging percentage. More swings and misses make for great GIF's from the Pitching Ninja (Rob Friedman) but in reality, hoping it's from improved command or grip from legal substances and not man made advances. 

Emerging from a pandemic, it should be baseball and fans back in the stands our nation focuses on. Loving the game for its purity and strategy. However, adding this to the pace of play issues and detracting from the young starts like Fernando Tatis Jr. , Juan Soto , Ronald Acuña Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , too many talk about tacky substances rather than the next wave of talent emerging before our eyes. 

Hopefully the league can get this under control without too many suspensions but it remains to be seen. Add this to the list of things to worry about each week when setting lineups and working the waiver wire trying to optimize lineups. Unfortunately, it feels like the inquisition of pitcher's substances has only scratched the surface. 

Here's hoping things work themselves out without a flurry of suspensions but be ever cognizant of the potential volatile times ahead and hopefully we do not tune in to see WKRP in Spincinnati. Until next time, stay safe and be well. 

Columns cited within this research

Eno Sarris - https://theathletic.com/2533154/2021/04/21/how-the-difference-between-sunscreen-and-advanced-grip-substances-could-help-mlb-navigate-tricky-enforcement-landscape/

Dan Hayes - https://theathletic.com/2634113/2021/06/05/josh-donaldson-wants-illegal-substances-better-enforced-to-impede-next-steroids-of-baseball-ordeal/
Sports Illustrated - https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/sticky-stuff-is-the-new-steroids-daily-cover