The definition of a diamond in the rough is a person who is generally of good character but lacks manners, education, or style. You can edit away manners, education, and style, for a multitude of reasons as to why certain players are drafted much later but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value or upside down here. In this Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide article, we’re breaking down some of the top targets later in drafts. We’re using NFBC ADP, and a lot of data is pulled thanks to Baseball Savant and Fangraphs. The 2026 season is right around the corner, and draft season is fully upon us. If you’re looking for some of the latest draft guide articles, tap in with the Shortstops on the rise.

Carter Jensen, Kansas City Royals - Catcher (ADP – 198.15)

Coming into the 2026 campaign, the Royals are going to deploy 22-year-old Carter Jensen behind the dish, and boy oh boy, that’s exciting. Jensen, according to MLB.com, ranks 18th among all of baseball's prospects. Here’s what things looked like for the 60 at-bats Jensen had last year, per Baseball Savant;

He obviously didn’t qualify based on his lack of major league time last year, but you can see what the potential is. He had a fantastic season in Triple-A, notching 14 HR, 39 RBI, and a .288/.404/.647 across 43 games. Jensen needs to cut down the strikeouts, as he punched out at a 28.3% clip at AAA. That said, his prospect pedigree is that of a plus offensive player, as he was given a 40/45 hit tool and a 55/60 raw power tool. He has serious upside. Jensen is drafted as the 17th catcher this year and has top-10 upside.

Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox - First Base (ADP – 186.94)

There is a LOT to like about the fit for Willson Contreras on the Boston Red Sox heading into 2026. There were a lot of changes in Contreras’ hit profile in ‘25 that translate perfectly to Fenway Park. Here are some career-high’s for Contreras last year;

  • Air% - 58.1%
  • FB% - 28%
  • LD% - 25.8%
  • Pull Air% - 19.8%

All of that matters because Fenway Park’s shorter left-field wall (in terms of distance, not height). Busch Stadium ranked 29th in home runs last year and 27th for right-handed hitters. Contreras is coming off a fantastic 2025 despite his park holding him back.
 

This is a bat that has an .811 OPS for his career and has been over a 123 OPS+ in four consecutive seasons. His career-high for home runs is 24, and with his change of scenery, he could definitely push for 30. The same could be said for his career-high 80 RBI he produced last year. He’s hitting in the middle of the Red Sox order with much better hitters surrounding him. 

Luis Garcia Jr., Washington Nationals - Second Base (ADP – 228.47)

You can count on one hand how many players across the majors last year that were unluckier than Luis Garcia Jr.

Here are some of Garcia’s numbers versus his expected numbers;

  • .252 BA / .281 xBA (8th largest difference in the league)
  • .412 SLG / .470 xSLG (18th largest difference in the league)
  • .300 wOBA / .339 xwOBA (3rd largest difference in the league)

The expected batting average was 93rd percentile amongst all of baseball. At a really awful position, there aren’t many guys who are threats to be a 20-20 player like Garcia is. He had career-high’s in home runs and stolen bases in 2024, but ‘25 was bad luck personified. 

One more interesting Luis Garcia Jr. nugget that is worth your time: he could gain 1B eligibility during the year. He was a bad defensive second baseman last year and has been seen taking reps at first this winter, according to Ryan Shenker of the Nats Report.

Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox - Shortstop (ADP – 217.97)

You don’t often find a 30-home run upside in the 200’s, but alas, here is Chicago White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery. Montgomery played just 74 games for the White Sox last year and belted 21 bombs. He had a .529 SLG and .290 ISO, and that’s the one thing he had going for him last season offensively. This is a position of strength, and the top-10 is incredibly strong, but there were only TWO shortstops who belted 30+ homers in 2025. Only seven SS hit more homers than Montgomery last season, and all of them played 31 or more games than him.

If you’re drafting Montgomery, it comes with an understanding that a lot of your ratios will plummet because he has a low batting average, on-base percentage, and strikes out a lot. 

Daylen Lile, Washington Nationals - Outfield (ADP – 206.55)

It’s weird to have TWO Washington Nationals make this list, but it is what it is. I like some of their bats..sue me! Anyways, a fun fact I learned this offseason was that Daylen Lile was 100th percentile in xBA last season. He hit .299 in 321 at-bats last year, and the fact that he was the BEST in xBA is insane.

Is what Lile did repeatable? He graded out with a 40-55 hit tool on his prospect report, and a lot of projection systems expect him to hit around .270. If he does repeat last season’s output, it’ll be paired with MANY stolen bases, which is the part that he’s known for. Lile was clocked with a 92nd percentile sprint speed last year and has had a 25-steal season in the minors as recently as 2024. Lile’s going to hit in the middle of the Nationals' lineup as protection for James Wood, and that will lead to a lot of hittable pitches. 

Trent Grisham, New York Yankees - Outfield (ADP – 249.19)

I’m not sure anyone believes what Trent Grisham did in 2025 is real. I shouldn’t say anybody because I do.

Let’s look at some batted ball data (per Baseball Savant) that benefits Grisham and the fact that he gets to call Yankee Stadium home in ‘26. 

He showed career high makes in air%, pull%, and pull air%. All three of those marks were far above league average, and when you look at park factors on Baseball Savant, Yankee Stadium ranked the eighth-best park in MLB for left-handed hitters in terms of home runs.

Grisham’s an incredibly patient hitter, ranking in the 96th percentile in walk rate and 99th percentile in chase rate. Feast your eyes on all of this red.

It helps to have Aaron Judge hitting behind you, and 30 home runs is well within the range of outcomes for the Yankees center fielder.

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers - Starting Pitcher (ADP – 201.16)

It was a tale of two halves for MacKenzie Gore in 2025, but nothing like a change of scenery to a pitching lab like Texas. Despite his bad second half, Gore finished the campaign with a career-high 10.4 K/9 and 27.2% K-rate. Gore, as mentioned, moves from the NL East to the AL West, and the Texas Rangers play at Globe Life Field. If you haven’t heard about Globe Life Field, it’s the BEST park to pitch in in the entire league. You really can’t find many arms this far down in terms of ADP that have 200 strikeout upside. Gore has that.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals - Starting Pitcher (ADP – 219.75)

This is a risky one, but without risk there’s no reward. Kris Bubic’s 2025 ended with a shoulder injury and you never want to hear that. Ever. That said, he’s back on the mound and throwing live BP.

Bubic’s 20 starts in ‘25 were electric as he struck out 116 batters in 116.1 innings while pitching to a 2.55 ERA. He keeps everything on the ground, notching a 47% GB rate, and that helped in allowing just .46 HR/9.

The entire thing with Bubic, and why he’s being drafted at nearly 220 on NFBC, is because of health concerns. He pitches in an elite pitchers' environment and has a LOT of skill. He’s also essentially been injured at different points for three straight seasons.

Daniel Palencia, Chicago Cubs - Relief Pitcher (ADP – 142.55)

The emergence of Daniel Palencia for the Chicago Cubs last year was a big deal because of how shaky their relief pitchers were before he slotted into the ninth inning. Palencia averaged 99.6 MPH on his fastball last year, which was the 99th percentile. His 28.4% K-rate was 86th percentile, too. He had 22 saves across 54 games and didn’t start the season as the closer, which gives you a peek at what he can do across an entire season.

There were only eight closers last year who recorded 30 saves, and Palencia has all the upside in the world to hit that mark this year. The shoulder sprain that he suffered late last year is in the rearview as he enters 2026 healthy.