Draft season is one of the most exciting times for fantasy baseball managers, as everyone looks to build the perfect roster for a championship run. However, not every highly drafted player lives up to expectations, and identifying potential busts can make or break your season. 

In 2025, several big names come with significant risk, whether due to injuries, declining performance, or unsustainable production from the previous year. 

 

 

 

While these players might offer upside, their potential to underdeliver at their current draft positions makes them high-risk investments. Let’s dive into the top 10 fantasy baseball busts to approach with caution this season.

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Busts For 2025 MLB

Jazz Chisholm, 2B/OF, New York Yankees

Coming off the board with an ADP of 38, Jazz Chisholm had a strong campaign after being traded to the Yankees midseason, hitting 24 home runs and stealing 40 bases. 

His power-speed combination made him one of the more dynamic players in the league. 

However, his injury history continues to be a significant concern. While Chisholm’s raw talent and upside are clear, his frequent injuries have kept him from maintaining consistent playing time. 

For fantasy managers, his inability to stay healthy could make his high draft position feel like an overpay, especially considering the risks involved.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners

With an ADP of 20, Julio Rodriguez carries significant risk after a disappointing 2024 season. He hit just .273 with 20 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and 103 RBIs over 143 games, showing a noticeable dip from his breakout 2023 performance. 

In 2023, Rodriguez posted impressive numbers, belting 32 home runs, stealing 37 bases, and driving in 103 runs, establishing himself as a fantasy star. 

However, if he fails to return to that elite level of production, fantasy managers investing a high pick in him could be left frustrated by underwhelming results. Rodriguez’s performance in 2025 will be crucial for his fantasy value.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies

Drafted as the 16th shortstop off the board, Tovar showed impressive flashes of brilliance for the Colorado Rockies in 2024, hitting a career-high 26 homers. However, his underlying stats raise concerns for potential regression. 

With a high 28.8% strikeout rate, a low 3.3% walk rate, and an unsustainable .344 BABIP, his success may not be sustainable, especially if he continues to struggle away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. 

If his production declines in 2025, he could end up being a bust at his draft price, leaving fantasy managers disappointed with his value.

 

 

Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox

Rafaela’s rookie season with the Boston Red Sox was impressive, showcasing both Gold Glove-caliber defense and solid offensive numbers, including 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases. 

However, his plate discipline remains a major concern, as he posted a 2.6% walk rate and a 26.4% strikeout rate, both of which indicate an issue with pitch recognition and contact. 

Although drafted as SS24, Rafaela’s risk isn’t as high as Tovar’s, but a potential regression in his BABIP, which sat at .313, could negatively affect his batting average of .246 and lead to an early-season slump or demotion, especially given the talent in the Red Sox farm system waiting to be called up.

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers

Are you comfortable drafting Jacob deGrom as SP17? Despite posting an impressive 1.69 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 10.2 innings for the Texas Rangers in 2024, his ongoing health issues remain a significant concern. 

deGrom has failed to make more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, which raises red flags for fantasy managers. While his talent is undeniable, his injury history makes him a high-risk, high-reward pick. 

Given the uncertainty surrounding his durability, fantasy managers may want to carefully weigh the potential upside against the risk of missing significant playing time.

Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

As the 29th pitcher selected in fantasy drafts, Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks delivered a solid 14-6 record with a 3.65 ERA in 2024, showing his reliability on the mound. 

However, his advanced metrics raise some concerns. His xERA of 3.97 suggests that he may have been slightly fortunate in terms of earned runs allowed. 

Additionally, his BB/9 rate of 3.28, the highest it’s been in three years, indicates that he struggled with control at times. If he fails to reach 200 innings in 2025, his value as a top-30 starting pitcher could be in jeopardy.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, New York Yankees

At 37 years old, Paul Goldschmidt’s power has noticeably declined. In 2024, he hit only 22 home runs, a drop from 25 the previous season, signaling a potential decrease in his offensive output. 

His walk rate also took a significant hit, falling to 7.2%, reflecting a possible regression in his plate discipline. With a move to the Yankees, the pressure to produce will undoubtedly intensify, but given his age and recent decline, it’s hard to see him justifying a high draft pick. 

Fantasy managers may want to approach him with caution, especially in the early rounds.

 

 

 

Brice Turang, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers second baseman Brice Turang’s impressive speed was his standout trait in 2024, as he swiped an impressive 50 bases. However, his offensive performance left much to be desired, as his overall numbers lacked consistency and power. 

A high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) masked some underlying issues, but this could easily regress, making him a potential liability moving forward. 

While his speed offers fantasy upside, drafting Turang as a top-10 second baseman might be a risky proposition unless he makes substantial improvements in his plate discipline and overall offensive production.

Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees

Now pitching for the Yankees, Fried enters the 2025 season with an ADP of SP21, setting high expectations for his performance. However, his 2024 season raised concerns as his strikeout rate dipped to 23.2%, and his walk rate climbed to 8.0%.

Injuries also became a recurring issue, further affecting his consistency and durability on the mound. At 30 years old, Fried's once-reliable ability to log deep innings is now uncertain. 

If these trends persist, his fantasy value could significantly diminish, making him a riskier option for managers looking for stable production from their starting pitchers.

Walker Buehler, SP, Boston Red Sox

Despite a strong postseason performance, Walker Buehler's 2024 regular season was challenging, finishing with a disappointing 1-6 record and a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts.

Now, as a member of the Boston Red Sox, Buehler’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is under close scrutiny, as this will be his first full season back. His durability and overall effectiveness remain uncertain, raising concerns about his ability to stay healthy and perform consistently. 

The potential for reinjury, combined with the competitive nature of the AL East, makes him a risky fantasy pick for 2025.

 

 

 

Identifying Fantasy Baseball Busts In 2025 Could Be They Key Difference

While these players offer potential upside, their risks—whether due to injuries, performance regression, or age—make them candidates for fantasy busts in 2025. Drafting them requires careful consideration of your league’s depth and team needs. 

Always have a backup plan in place for these high-risk, high-reward players. The fantasy landscape is ever-changing, and some players may exceed expectations, but for now, these are the names to approach with caution.