When looking at fantasy baseball rankings, you’ll see a lot of big names and valuable fantasy contributors at the hot corner. With all of the big names at the position, I went into the kitchen, and cooked up some bold predictions, one of which in particular is sure to catch your eye, and maybe ruffle some feathers. From a player’s continued power decline to one of the league’s ascending young sluggers, this article is surely to have you doing some final tweaks to your fantasy baseball draft strategy in the final weekend before Opening Day. Be sure to take a look at Fantasy Alarm’s fantasy baseball projections as you get ready for Opening Day and when placing futures bets! Enjoy these bold predictions, and keep reading everything we have here in our fantasy baseball draft guide to give you the edge to dominate your league(s) in 2026.

 

 

Junior Caminero’s 51 Home Runs is a Top 3 Finish… In ALL of Baseball

After being one of just six players to hit at least 45 long balls last season, Caminero takes another step up, and surpasses 50 in 2026. Yes, he did enjoy the friendly confines of Steinbrenner Field last year, as he hit .313 at home compared to just .218 on the road. However, his 45 home runs in 2025 were evenly split between on the road (23) and at home (22). The team returning to Tropicana Field is certainly less friendly for hitters, but Caminero has elite bat speed (100th percentile in 2025), and his ability to make hard contact will play at any stadium.

Caminero turns 23 in July, and he should continue to mature and develop with more time in the bigs. There might be some regression from his 24.5 HR/FB% from last season (24.5%), and ideally, he shaves a few percentage points off his 46.5% ground ball rate. For perspective, of the 33 players that hit at least 30 home runs last season, only six of them had a ground ball rate north of 40%, and only James Wood and Julio Rodriguez had a higher GB% than Caminero.

At the end of the day, I’m betting on a young ascending talent with elite power, who in theory, is only going to get better and better.

 

 

Manny Machado Fails to Reach 25 Home Runs

Since hitting 32 home runs in 2022, Machado’s home run total has decreased in three straight seasons, as has his ISO. His percentile ranking for bat speed remains strong, but it has dipped each of the last two years, going from the 96th percentile to the 90th in 2024, and then to the 84th percentile last season.

His numbers fell off after the All-Star break, as he posted a .726 OPS, .165 ISO, and 23.0 K%. What if that’s a sign of things to come? If you take his numbers over the second half of the 2025 season and pace them out over a full 162 game season, it comes out to, you guessed it, 25 home runs.

Overall, Petco Park is quite pitcher-friendly, but it’s above average for homers from the right-hand side, posting the fifth-highest park factor. Machado turns 34 in July, and while he can still make a ton of hard contact and be solid for fantasy purposes, I believe this is the year where his home run total dips below 25. If you remove the COVID year, which saw Machado hit 16 home runs in just 60 games, the last time Machado failed to reach the 25 homer threshold was over a decade ago (2014).

 

 

Austin Riley Joins 30/10 Club

There are two components here to this bold prediction, with one being substantially less surprising. Riley has missed time the last two seasons, resulting in him appearing in just 110 and 102 games in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In those two seasons, he hit a combined 35 home runs, with no more than 20 in either individual season. However, the ISO remained respectable, though below his standards, and he continues to make a ton of hard contact. Despite the injuries, his average exit velocity has been in the 90th percentile or better in four straight seasons, his barrel rate has been in the 89th percentile or better in four straight, and his bat speed has been 90th percentile or better in three-straight. That is excellent, and great for his power floor, assuming he can stay on the field.

Okay, let’s talk about the stolen bases now. How in the world can you say someone will steal 10+ bases when he has just two stolen bases over his last 212 games, and just seven stolen bases in his 821-game career?

Antoan Richardson is why.

Richardson helped Juan Soto and the Mets increase their base stealing prowess, and based on reports, the Braves could be running more in 2026. You don’t need to be the fastest guy to steal bases, but speed certainly never hurts. It might be surprising, but Riley posted a 73rd percentile sprint speed in 2026, and with some good coaching and savviness, he can be an opportunistic base stealer.

If Richardson comes in and sprinkles the same magic he did with Soto and the Mets last season, stolen bases could be up across the board for Atlanta, and a healthy Riley stands to benefit.

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