OFF TO ARIZONA – LABR

One of the best weekends of the year is upon us. The League of Alternative Baseball Reality, also known as LABR, is this weekend in Phoenix. I’ll be participating in the AL-only Draft Saturday night and hosting the NL-only Draft on Sunday. Both leagues can be heard, live, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Both drafts begin at 7 PM EDT by the way. You can read more about the lineup in Steve Gardner’s preview for USA Today.

DOOLITTLE REALLY OK?

Sean Doolittle is the closer for the Athletics. Everyone says so. But how high is the confidence level that Doolittle will be a star in 2016? Not very high in this scribe’s book. Doolittle allowed four hits and two runs in an inning of work Thursday looking shaky. Oh I’m not overreacting to one inning (you know me better than that don’t you?). I’m worried about his health and where he is at physically. Last season was a total mess as physical woes limited him to 13.2 big league innings. He walked five batters in those 13.2 innings, a season after he issues eight free passes over 62.2 innings. Small sample size of course, but emblematic of the concerns I have. The PITCHf/x data also showed a loss of a mile and a half off his fastball. He might be just fine, but I’m clearly not sold. The Athletics also brought in two capable bullpen arms in John Axford and Ryan Madson, so it’s not like they don’t have an alternative to work the 9th inning if Doolittle struggles.

BACK IN SHAPE?

Victor Martinez is 37 years old. He was a total disaster last season as he hit .245 with 11 home runs. That’s not what anyone wants to see. But after a lost season there is hope that things will be better in 2016. His body is strong, and he looks good. "He's noticeably stronger," Tigers’ manager Brad Ausmus said. "He really is. And I'm not just talking about hitting. Moving around. Taking ground balls. Getting into the batter's box. Walking up to the batter's box. He just looks stronger." I’m not buying it, at least completely. VMart is 37 years old. He was a total disaster last season including his abysmal work against righties that included a .616 OPS. Those are all huge warning signs for a 37 years old who caught for more than 20 years. I don’t see any obvious difference between him and Billy Butler at this point. There, I said it.

BACK IN SHAPE, PART II

Marcell Ozuna had a lost season in 2015 and he entered the offseason on the trade block. His manager (Don Mattingly) and hitting coach (Barry Bonds) both stood up for him and told team management that Ozuna should not be dealt. Ozuna is doing his best to do everything he can to make his coaches look good. Ozuna lost 20 lbs over the offseason and his hard work is showing. For more on Ozuna check out the video Player Profile on him in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS. 

DOES SPRING TRAINING MATTER?

Mike Trout is arguably the best player in the game. Seeing him do anything well is just par for the course. Just wanted to point one thing out to you though in my never ending quest to warm folks to be careful not to overvalue spring performances, good or bad. In the case of Trout we’re talking about a guy who has an amazing .392/.469/.716 during spring training play. That’s over 256 plate appearances. That’s a 1.185 OPS. Wow is right. So Trout must crush things in April, right? Well, not so much. Trout is the owner of a mere .892 OPS in April. Realize that Trout has a .956 career OPS so his April mark is .064 points below his career level. There’s actually only one other month in his career that is worse (.885 in August). Even the mighty Trout isn’t able to transition his spring play into massive early season success.

A NEW LEADOFF MAN?

I’m not going to say that Jonathan Villar is a “sleeper” for multiple reasons. (1) I hate the term. There is no such thing as a sleeper anymore. There’s just too much data out there to sneak someone past the fantasy universe. (2) Orlando Arcia is one of the better prospects in baseball and he could easily take over the shortstop position for the Brewers early in the year thereby relegating Villar to the bench. (3) Villar really can’t hit. Over the course of 658 plate appearances his slash line disappoints at .236/.300/.353. None of those numbers even crests the league average. So why write about Villar at all? Two main reasons. First, Villar can run. Over those 658 plate appearances, basically a full seasons worth, he’s swiped 42 bases, a strong mark in today’s game. Second, Villar could end up taking over the leadoff spot for the Brewers. That would be intriguing and would jack up his value, especially for those folks in NL-only leagues. If Villar can’t secure the role, sounds like it might fall to Scooter Gennett, he of the .318 career OBP. Not exactly a heartwarming situation for folks who cheer for the Brew Crew.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).