Ray’s Ramblings: Buy Low

NOTE: Ray Flowers mentioned seven players he would be looking to sell if they were currently on his roster. Read his Sell High column for a breakdown of those men. 

FOUR HITTERS

Brian Dozier is hitting .222 with a .308 OBP and .379 SLG. Those are terrible numbers that looked much worse until a recent run. Look a bit deeper and you see the emergence of the guy that you drafted a few months back. Dozier, over the last 13 games, has hit .288 with three homers and 11 RBI. He’s posted a .367 OBP with a .558 SLG as well. He’s below average in batting average, and he’s only stolen 15 bases his last 210 games, but in the counting categories (HR, RBI, Runs) there have been few better the last couple of years up the middle.

Brad Miller, like Dozier, is a limited player. Through 396 games Miller has hit .246 and this season he’s limping along at .236. He’s also the owner of a career .309 OBP and his mark this season is .290. So why does Miller deserve a mention? Even with the down effort he’s still on pace to go 14/11 and he qualifies at shortstop and in the outfield. It’s more a gut feeling than anything obvious in the numbers, but he’s a guy that you don’t covet who should still produce passable numbers in deep leagues. Don’t make a move for him in 10-team leagues, but in 12-teamers he should be passable as a bench option.

Joey Votto has been an utter failure with a .230 batting average, .067 points below his career level. Votto has a .348 OBP, .072 points lower than his career mark. Votto has a .446 SLG, .086 points below his career mark. Yikes. All terrible, agreed. Still, Votto is an elite talent who has performed like a lower level Hall of Famer for the majority of his career. And he’s at it again – even if you haven’t noticed. Over his last 12 games Votto has hit five homers with 11 RBI and 12 runs scored. He’s also stolen three bases. That’s ELITE level production for any position. Add in that he’s hit .313 in that time with a .389 OBP and .750 SLG and the guy has a 1.139 OPS. How were you doubting he would rebound?

Matt Wieters has had a couple of lost seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He started out slowly this season and folks were running as fast as they could from him (I know since I literally was trying to talk someone out of dropping him on a daily basis). Over his last 20 games of action Wieters has been one of the best hitting catchers in the game. In those 20 games he’s hit four homers and driven in 17 runs and he’s also hitting .347 with a .952 OPS and .402 wOBA. He’s back, finally, and that means Wieters is a top-10 catching option (check out our June Rankings Update).

Corey Dickerson has turned into an all of nothing type of player. Carlos Beltran has been hot but expect him to slow down. Justin Smoak can still kill lefties. CHECK OUT THE VIDEO.

THREE PITCHERS

Chris Archer has a 4.73 ERA and 1.51 WHIP as well as a 4.23 walk per nine mark. Can’t sugar coat that. All of that is well below the league average (and then some). He’s also been extremely inconsistent from start to start, and his slider isn’t as effective as it has been in the past (a bad sign when he throws his slider the 4^th most, in terms of percentage, of any hurler in the game). Still, he was fantastic last season. He is fourth in baseball with 10.95 strikeouts per nine this season which is higher than the 10.70 mark he posted last year. His career HR/9 mark is 0.89 which is nearly half his 1.74 current rate. Those homers are growth from a 21.5 percent HR/F ratio which is more than double his career mark (10.9). His SIERA (3.76) and xFIP (3.57) suggest his raw ERA should be much lower. I’m buying since the price will be so dang low.

Wei-Yin Chen has a 4.56 ERA and 3-2 record in his first season in the National League. He’s been better than that though. Compare this season’s work to his career levels.

Look at those numbers closely. Chen is pitching exactly the same as he always has. He owns a career 3.80 ERA and the mark has been below 3.55 the last two seasons. His ERA will improve this season – book it.

R.A. Dickey is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA. His strikeout rate is also down again this season at just 6.12 whiffs per nine. With the strikeouts gone, Dickey has become just a guy. I will admit he’s more that than any kind of upside play, but look inside the numbers with Dickey who has performed well of late and you see at least a little glimpse of goodness. Since the start of May, his last eight outings, Dickey has a 2.81 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 51 innings. His K-rate is even lower during his successful run at 5.44 per nine, but the knuckler is vexing batters frequently enough that Dickey is at least a streaming option in solid matchups in mixed leagues.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).