THREE HITTERS

Marcell Ozuna was going to be traded this offseason until Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds told team management that was a bad idea. Can understand why management was upset. Through 1,397 plate appearances over 346 games, Ozuna was batting .265 with a .311 OBP and .416 SLG. He’d also hit a homer every 36.1 at-bats with a pathetic 0.25 BB/K ratio. This season he’s been tremendous blowing past everything he had done before. His batting average is up .049 points, his OBP .050 points and his SLG .129 points (.314/.361/.545). Do you really think that after three years of league average work that he’s morphed into a top-20 outfielder merely because Barry Bonds is his hitting coach? He’s also popping homers at a rate of 22.0 at-bats per big fly, a massive increase from the previous three years. All of that success has come despite a mere 18.2 percent line drive rate and a far too high .365 BABIP. Succinctly. I do not believe Ozuna’s skills warrant a .300 hitter or 30 homer bat. Selling him to someone who believes he is what we have seen thus far might be wise.

Nomar Mazara has been spectacular. Period. Unfortunately, folks have been blinded by that to the point that they are just accepting that Mazara is “this guy.” Sorry, but he ain’t. Mazara is not a .321 hitter. Should be obvious, but it’s not to some folks. Mazara has hit .270 in the minors, and that’s over 444 games of action. He was projected to hit .260-.270 in the majors according to most scouting services, at least at this point of his development. So how is he hitting so high? A .344 BABIP is playing a part, as is his amazing 28.0 percent line drive rate. Last season two men posted a mark of 28 percent in the line drive category and only 13 men were even at 25 percent. Both the BABIP, and the line drive rate will do down, with the line drive rate likely plummeting. Even if he continues with the power his average is coming down, likely substantially.

Ben Zobrist has always been one of my favorite players. Stable, consistent, a multi-category guy, he usually fell to the point in a draft where he was a solid buy. To this point of 2016 he’s been better than that – he’s been amazing. The 35 year old is on pace to hit .325 with a .508 SLG, 22 homers, 100 RBI and 115 runs scored. But… Zobrist hit 23 homers the last two years. Zobrist hasn’t driven in 75 runners four years. Zobrist has failed to hit the 85 run level since 2012. And the average… he’s never hit .300 before and owns a .268 career mark. A career season? Sure, that’s possible, but at his age and with his track record it’s bonkers to expect this level of production (note that Zobrist has hit .100 with a .236 wOBA his last seven games).

Doug Fister has been on a very successful run. Taijuan Walker has a fantastic start on Wednesday, so what does it mean for his potential? The Twins closer situation with Perkins on the shelf is a bit shaky. CHECK OUT THE VIDEO.

THREE PITCHERS PLUS

Rich Hill ain’t young, but I had to toss him in here. I don’t know why you drafted him, but if you did you’ve already received a massive return on your investment. I wish you would have traded him at any point the last two months because now he’s hurt, he's headed the DL with a groin issue that was supposed to be "minor", and I have ZERO faith in a strong second half. Hill is 36 years old and last threw 70 innings in 2007. If that doesn’t matter to you, I can’t help ya.  

OK, now to the youngsters.

Steven Matz has a 2.69 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Those are elite numbers. It’s not fair to expect 95 percent of big league arms to keep up that pace, let alone a guy who has thrown a total of 96 innings at the big league level. Matz also has an injured filled past, and he had that scare earlier this season as well with his pitching arm. Due to physical setbacks, here are this guy’s innings pitched marks through the years: 29, 106.1, 140.2, 141 innings. The guys never hit 145-innings before. Given his injuries, the lack of innings, and his over the top performance… deal away.

Drew Pomeranz has a 2.44 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 12 starts this season. Through 119 big league appearances he has a 3.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, league average numbers which are greatly aided by his work this season. For his career he’s averaged 8.56 strikeouts per nine, two full batters below his 10.67 career mark. He’s never thrown enough strikes with a 3.96 walk rate per nine. The mark is even higher this season at 4.11. In each of the last five seasons, due to injury/ineffectiveness/bullpen work, Drew has also failed to reach 100-innings pitched. Should be obvious.

Aaron Sanchez has been spectacular with a 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 59.5 percent ground ball rate. He’s also striking out 8.51 batters per nine with a 2.92 K/BB ratio. That’s all fantastic. However, innings will get him. In 2013 he threw 109.2 innings. In 2014 he threw 133.1 innings and last year that number was 102 innings. He simply doesn’t have the frames on his wing to throw 180-innings this season. Then there is the obvious – the team has already stated as much, way back in March. “John Gibbons says Aaron Sanchez won't be on rotation whole season to manage workload. Will go to pen after.” It’s certainly going to happen.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).