Oh boy, it has been a long week for me. I decided Thursday night to go out and partake in the age old activity of drinking. As a bar owner this is something I try to avoid and only do it once or twice per year. The truth is a “monkey cannot sell bananas”. So Friday morning I wake up with what has to be the worst hangover I have ever had. I had the shakes, sweating, dizzy, and every time I tried to sit up I would fell nauseous and start to throw up. By nights end I started to feel a little better. Or did I?
This morning I woke up and guess what? I still feel like crap. I have a cough, I am slightly dizzy, and running a fever. So apparently I was lucky enough to be blessed with a hangover and flu at the same time. With a house full of kids, it seems the older I get, the easier I get sick.
Today’s slate is chalk full of good starting pitchers in bad matchups, bad ballparks, or facing red hot teams. These are all things that make for a risky day in DFS. The difference between a cash game play and GPP play are only a stone’s throw away.
So after I go lay back down for about 20 minutes to recompose myself I will bring you todays Pitching Coach Article. I feel like poop.
Top Cash Game Plays
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
Would you believe it if I told you that going back to 2013 Chris Sale over 11 games spanning 66 1/3 innings pitched has a 5.56 ERA versus the Twins? Would it change things If I told you that he also had 85 strikeouts in that 66 1/3 inning span? The reality is Chris Sale is pitching at another level so far this season. One way above the bats of the Twins.
The Minnesota Twins are striking out 20.3 percent of the time versus LHP with a .311 wOBA. On the road the Twins only have a .305 wOBA and are hitting .255 over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Sale over his last two starts versus the lefty mashing Orioles and Blue Jays has a 1.35 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Although he does not get a positive park shift at home it is a risk I am willing to take with his 1.93 home ERA. He is a little cheaper than Kershaw and gets a much better matchup. I was actually thinking of playing some 50/50’s today for the first time in a few weeks and Sale is the guy I plan on using.
Danger Zone
You have some guys to worry about on the Twins but no one all that scary. Brian Dozier is 11-for-38 with three HR off of Sale but I highly doubt he plays today as he is nursing a hamstring injury. Miguel Sano is always a threat as well and is four-for-five off of Sale. None of this I find particularly scary. I am more concerned with Sale just having an off day. It happens.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Usually anytime Clayton Kershaw is on the board he is the top option. First off, pitching in the N.L. he usually benefits from facing eight batters and a pitcher. He also gets the benefit of pitching in a great pitcher’s park in Los Angeles. Well today he has none of that going for him. Even though the Blue Jays have not been lights our offensively so far this season they are still what they are. Toronto is striking out 21.9 percent of the time versus LHP with a .333 wOBA. They also are only batting .231 over the last seven days. If there was ever time to use a LHP versus Toronto it certainly seems now is the time. Kershaw over his last two starts versus the Padres and Marlins has 34 strikeouts over 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA. Keep in mind of these two starts one was a complete game shutout (Padres) and in the other he surrendered five runs (Marlins). I prefer Sale today overall but if you are playing the early only slate Kershaw is man.
Danger Zone
The only player with any substantial BVP today is Troy Tulowitzki who has three HR lifetime off of Kershaw. I am willing to bet all of it was in Colorado though. Otherwise you have the usual lefty mashers to worry about with the worst being Josh Donaldson.
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
Keep in mind the pitchers in this section are better GPP plays on FanDuel and what I consider the best cash game plays to pair with one of the pitchers above on DraftKings and other two-pitcher sites.
Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs
The Nationals seem scary right? The truth is even though the mighty Bryce Harper resides in the lineup Washington actually struggles versus RHP. The Nationals are striking out 20.9 percent of the time versus righties with a low .301 wOBA and are 27th in wRC+ at 81. Hammel gets a positive park shift today at home with Wrigley field being 21st in MLB in runs scored and over his last two starts has a 1.64 ERA with 10 strikeouts over 11 innings versus the Pirates and Reds on the road. The Cubs are red hot right now and I suspect they are going to beat up on Gio Gonzalez today which should help get you that win bonus. Hammel is my top option to pair with Kershaw today on the early slate and with Sale on the all-day slate.
Danger Zone
The BVP is clear including Bryce Harper who is two-for-14 with one HR.
Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
There are two things today you can count on. The first one is Bartolo Colons ability to eat copious amounts of cheesesteak at the ballpark. The second one is picking on the San Diego Padres.
The Padres are striking out 25.6 percent of the time versus RHP with a pathetic .280 wOBA and are 29th in wRC+ at 72. Their home wOBA is even more pathetic at .277. I watched Colon completely shut down the Braves last Monday night while I was at Citi Field and I expect a similar performance tonight. He gets another great park shift at Petco Park and over his last two starts has a 2.08 ERA with 11 strikeouts over 13 innings. The Padres are complete crap and Colon is my favorite player to pair with Sale tonight on the night slate.
Danger Zone
Matt Kemp is four-for-nine with two RBI and believe it or not Melvin Upton Jr. is 10-for-33 with one HR, five RBI, and 10 strikeouts versus Colon. Also, he is still Bartolo Colon so there is always a high probability you get no more than six innings out of him.
Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers (Weather concerns!)
This play is on the border between GPP and worthy of pairing on a two-pitcher site in cash games. Jimmy Nelson today takes on the Cincinnati Reds at home so the park shift is far from favorable. The Reds are striking out 22.4 percent of the time, have a low .308 wOBA, and are 24th in MLB in wRC+ versus RHP. They also are only batting .216 over the last seven days. Nelson has been pitching well lately. Over his last two starts versus the mighty Cubs and occasionally mighty Angels he has a 2.19 ERA with 11 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings. I am more than willing to take a shot here today on this one and expect the ownership to be low with so many options on the board.
Danger Zone
We have some pretty ugly BVP here. You have to remember Nelson faces the Reds in two places. At home in Milwaukee and on the road in Cincinnati. Both are notorious hitter’s parks. Jay Bruce is six-for-14 with two HR, Brandon Phillips is four-for-12 with one HR, and Eugenio Saurez is two-for-five. I never said this was risk free.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Jared Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Before you think I am crazy here just hear me out and understand this play is either going to be a stroke of genius or complete bust. If you want to take down a large field GPP than ownership percentage combined with savings is the way to go. You just have to find the right matchup.
The Tampa Bay Rays are number one in MLB in strikeouts versus RHP doing so 27.1 percent of the time. They also have a low .291 wOBA and are 23rd in wRC+ versus righties. Weaver gets a great park shift at home in Los Angeles. Here is the problem. Even though the Rays strikeout a ton Weaver strikes out barely none. His current K/9 is only 4.45. So why would I take a shot? Well, his home ERA is 3.75 versus his 6.61 road ERA. To put this into perspective over his two home starts this season he has only allowed five earned runs versus 12 on the road. I am not going to get crazy here because he is still Jared Weaver but I am going to use him in a $2 GPP on FanDuel and $3 GPP on DraftKings today.
Danger Zone
There is some history here and outside of Evan Longoria it is all positive. Longoria is six-for-20 with one HR lifetime off of Weaver and the rest is all favorable.
Good luck today and be sure your catchers are playing as most do not if playing a day game after a night game. Saturdays and Sundays can be tough in that respect if you are new to this. As for me…I am burning up and that is the excuse I will use for Weaver today if he implodes.
| Player | Tm | Opp | W | L | ERA | G | IP | ER | HR | BB | SO | K/9 | K% | FD$ | DK$ | Aces$ |
| Clayton Kershaw | LA | TOR | 3 | 1 | 1.96 | 6 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 6 | 0.32 | $13,000 | $13,500 | $8,000 |
| Chris Sale | CWS | MIN | 6 | 0 | 1.66 | 6 | 43.33 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 4.22 | 0.23 | $12,000 | $12,900 | $8,000 |
| Johnny Cueto | SF | COL | 4 | 1 | 3.61 | 6 | 42.33 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 4.56 | 0.24 | $10,700 | $9,900 | $6,850 |
| David Price | BOS | NYY | 4 | 0 | 6.14 | 6 | 36.67 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 49 | 5.44 | 0.31 | $9,900 | $10,800 | $6,950 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | SEA | 2 | 4 | 5.11 | 6 | 37 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 30 | 3.33 | 0.19 | $9,400 | $8,300 | $7,000 |
| Jason Hammel | CHI | WSH | 4 | 0 | 1.24 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 2.78 | 0.22 | $8,900 | $8,800 | $6,000 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | BOS | 1 | 2 | 5.46 | 5 | 29.67 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 3.44 | 0.24 | $8,900 | $6,200 | $5,900 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | CHI | 2 | 1 | 1.15 | 5 | 31.33 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 2.89 | 0.2 | $8,800 | $9,100 | $6,500 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | HOU | 3 | 1 | 3.81 | 5 | 28.33 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 3.22 | 0.24 | $8,300 | $8,800 | $5,950 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | SD | 2 | 1 | 2.56 | 6 | 31.67 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 3.11 | 0.22 | $8,100 | $7,300 | $5,800 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | DET | 3 | 0 | 2.32 | 5 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 2.89 | 0.21 | $8,100 | $8,400 | $5,550 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | CLE | 3 | 2 | 2.61 | 5 | 31 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 3.22 | 0.23 | $8,000 | $7,700 | $6,600 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | PIT | 2 | 3 | 6.68 | 6 | 33.67 | 25 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 2 | 0.12 | $8,000 | $7,200 | $6,600 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | BAL | 3 | 3 | 2.53 | 6 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 4.56 | 0.3 | $7,900 | $5,950 | |
| James Shields | SD | NYM | 1 | 4 | 3.23 | 6 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 2.89 | 0.16 | $7,900 | $8,600 | $6,450 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | LAA | 0 | 1 | 3.12 | 6 | 34.67 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 3.33 | 0.22 | $7,600 | $7,800 | $6,250 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | CIN | 4 | 2 | 3.05 | 6 | 38.33 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 3.44 | 0.2 | $7,500 | $8,400 | $5,850 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | OAK | 1 | 3 | 5.21 | 5 | 27.67 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 3.22 | 0.23 | $7,100 | $6,600 | $6,050 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | TB | 3 | 1 | 5.4 | 5 | 28.33 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 1.56 | 0.11 | $7,000 | $6,900 | $5,750 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | LA | 1 | 3 | 5.73 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 2.78 | 0.17 | $7,000 | $6,700 | $5,800 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | CWS | 0 | 1 | 3.15 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 2 | 0.2 | $6,900 | $7,600 | $6,000 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | ATL | 0 | 3 | 8.49 | 6 | 23.33 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 2.11 | 0.17 | $6,800 | $7,000 | $5,900 |
| Jon Gray | COL | SF | 0 | 1 | 7.98 | 3 | 14.67 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 2.56 | 0.34 | $6,500 | $7,900 | $6,000 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | MIA | 2 | 2 | 4.88 | 6 | 31.33 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 3.67 | 0.24 | $6,500 | $6,700 | $5,900 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | KC | 0 | 1 | 7.65 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 1.56 | 0.14 | $6,400 | $4,600 | $5,600 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | STL | 1 | 2 | 4.73 | 5 | 26.67 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 2.33 | 0.17 | $6,300 | $5,800 | $5,600 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | PHI | 2 | 3 | 7.25 | 5 | 22.33 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 1.67 | 0.14 | $6,200 | $6,800 | $5,500 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | MIL | 1 | 1 | 3.97 | 6 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 3 | 0.18 | $5,900 | $6,300 | $6,000 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | TEX | 0 | 4 | 5.68 | 5 | 25.33 | 16 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 1.33 | 0.1 | $5,300 | $4,500 | $5,850 |
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.co
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