One of the most important aspects of preparing for your fantasy football draft is to keep a close eye on players that are coming back from serious injuries. That is because injured players can sometimes fall off of other GM’s radars and allow you to draft them for tremendous value. In 2013, there was no shortage of injuries to impact players, which likely had some effect on the outcome of your league. So let’s take a look at some of the biggest names coming back from injury that you should keep tabs on.
Rob Gronkowski (TE-NE) - Up until a couple years ago, it was unheard of to take a tight end in the first round of a fantasy football draft. Rob Gronkowski changed all of that with his epic 2011 season where he had 90 receptions with 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns. But he has been marred by various injuries since then which cost him 14 games over the past two seasons. Gronkowski’s 2013 season was cut short in December when he tore his ACL and MCL and und erwent surgery. All indications from Gronkowski and the Patriots are that he is progressing well and has not suffered any setbacks in his rehabilitation. He did not participate in the Patriots’ OTA’s in early June, but he did do his own workout regimen.
OUTLOOK: Before getting a false sense of security that Gronkowski will be ready for Week 1, let’s not forget what happened just a year ago when it appeared Gronkowski would be ready for the 2013 season. Fantasy GM’s were pulling their hair out seeing him practice week after week but then not being activated for game play until almost two months into the season. The Patriots are a different team offensively now, so proceed with extreme caution if you are thinking of making him your first overall pick.
Cam Newton (QB-CAR) - Cam Newton underwent ankle surgery in March 2014 and is expected to participate in the Panthers’ minicamp at the end of June. Even if Carolina is overly cautious with their franchise quarterback, there does not seem to be any doubt that Newton will be 100% by the time the season starts. The only problem is that Newton does not have anyone to throw the ball to after the Panthers let Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell go during the offseason.
OUTLOOK: It will be interesting to see whether Newton changes his style of play because of the ankle injury. He has averaged just over 120 rushing attempts since 2011. Without any reliable targets on the outside, Newton may feel inclined to make things happen on his own. This can be both a blessing and a curse for fantasy GM’s who must balance the trade-off of extra points for a running quarterback versus the higher risk of injury.
Doug Martin (RB-TB) - The 2012 Rookie of the Year was a major bust in his sophomore season as Doug Martin sustained a season-ending shoulder injury after playing on six games in 2013. Martin was a consensus first round pick in 2013 drafts but quickly made GM’s regret taking him by averaging only 3.6 yards per carry with only one touchdown before he got hurt. After undergoing shoulder surgery, Martin is on track to return after making a full recovery, but the issue will be his playing time and sharing the load with other running backs.
OUTLOOK: I was skeptical about Martin even before he got injured in 2013. After the injury, Tampa Bay got solid production from Bobby Rainey and Mike James in his place. Then they went out and drafted Charles Sims who is projected to be a big part of the Buccaneers’ passing game. In this day and age with so many running backs by committee, there just aren’t enough carries to go around to justify taking Martin with an early round draft pick.
Julio Jones (WR-ATL) - When you think about teams that severely underperformed in 2013, the Atlanta Falcons are at or near the top of the list. One of the reasons that they struggled so much was the loss of star wide receiver Julio Jones just six weeks into the season. Jones sustained a fractured foot, which happened to be a recurrence of a prior injury he had in college. He was Matt Ryan’s primary target for those first few games while Roddy White was out with an injury. He is being brought back slowly and will not be near full strength at least until training camp opens.
OUTLOOK: Jones was a legitimate second round pick in 2013 and was well on his way to Pro Bowl numbers before he was injured. Assuming he has no setbacks, you can feel comfortable taking him again in the second round as your primary wide receiver. With Tony Gonzalez now retired, Jones will be seeing even more targets than before. He is a game-changing player and can help lead you to a league championship.
Eli Manning (QB-NYG) - Eli Manning started his first game for the New York Giants mid-way through the 2004 season when he supplanted Kurt Warner as the starting quarterback. Since then, he has won two Super Bowl MVP’s and has not missed a single game in ten years. He underwent ankle surgery this past spring but already participated in the Giants’ OTAs. Within two months of his surgery, Manning was taking snaps with the first-team offense.
OUTLOOK: There is no denying that 2013 was a miserable year for Eli Manning. If he was the starting quarterback on your fantasy team, then you likely did not have a good season. Manning is more of a backup fantasy quarterback until he can prove that his interception problems are behind him.
David Wilson (RB-NYG)
Looking back to last year, one of the most sought after running backs was David Wilson of the Giants. After being drafted in 2012, he emerged as a dynamic kick returner after having some fumbling issues running the ball. But heading into 2013, the plan was for Wilson to become the team’s primary running back and utilize his explosive speed. Sure enough, he fumbled twice in the Giants first game of the season, lost the confidence of his coaching staff, and then sustained a neck injury that required season-ending surgery.
OUTLOOK: It is expected that Wilson will be given clearance to resume full football activities by the time mini camp begins, but there is also a small possibility that any setback could prevent Wilson from ever being able to play again. He was denied clearance at the beginning of June despite showing significant progress in his healing since having surgery earlier this year. Wilson will also be competing for playing time with Rashad Jennings, Peyton Hillis and rookie Andre Williams. At best, he can be considered a deep sleeper.
Reggie Wayne (WR-IND) - At 35-years old, Reggie Wayne is considered a dinosaur for a wide receiver. At 35-years old and coming back from ACL surgery, Reggie Wayne is considered a “freak” by teammate Andrew Luck. Wayne sustained the injury during Week 7 of last year and has been determined to come back. He likely will not do much until training camp begins at the end of July, but all signs point to him being ready for Week 1 of the upcoming season.
OUTLOOK: In his absence, T.Y. Hilton emerged as Andrew Luck’s favorite target. The Colts have also brought in free agent Hakeem Nicks to bolster the receiving core. This could allow Wayne to work his way back into the offense almost under the radar, which could make him extremely effective in fantasy terms. His draft value will slip because of the injury, but he could be a sleeper since there seems to be enough left in the tank for another productive season.
Sam Bradford (QB-STL) - Despite all of the trade rumors around the NFL draft, Sam Bradford remains the quarterback of the St. Louis Rams. Bradford is working his way back from a torn ACL that ended his 2013 season. The Rams have been building a solid nucleus of offensive players around Bradford, so he should have plenty of weapons to choose from. Bradford has never thrown more than 21 touchdowns in a season and has topped out at 3,702 passing yards, so there is plenty of room for improvement.
OUTLOOK: Bradford should be ready for Week 1, but the fact remains that he is not a legitimate starting fantasy quarterback at this point. Bradford has the talent to improve and now has players around him to help with his production. He could be a solid late round option for your backup quarterback.
(RB-IND) - The fact that Ahmad Bradshaw will play in 2014 is a minor miracle after having neck surgery and a long history of foot problems. The Colts decided to re-sign him to join a crowded backfield that includes incumbent Trent Richardson and a returning Vick Ballard. Bradshaw is one of the toughest rushers in the league, but he has paid the price for that toughness with a litany of injuries throughout his career.
OUTLOOK: Outside of getting some goal line opportunities or being a 3rd down back, it isn’t likely that Bradshaw will factor much into the Colts’ offense. They gave up a 1st round pick for Richardson, so it can be expected that Indianapolis will want to feature him as much as possible. Bradshaw is extremely fragile, so it will take an extended period of productivity before he can be trusted on fantasy rosters again.
Nate Burleson (WR-CLE) - Browns wide receiver Nate Burleson fractured his left arm during a minicamp earlier this spring and underwent surgery. This fracture was to the same arm that Burleson injured when he infamously tried to prevent a pizza from falling off the seat in his car last year. He is due to get his cast off in mid-June and expects to be fully ready for training camp.
OUTLOOK: With Josh Gordon facing a year-long suspension, Burleson could be in line for significant playing time. Rookie Johnny Manziel will need someone to rely on as his veteran target and Burleson certainly can provide that. The biggest concern for Burleson has been his ability to stay on the field. He will be 33 by the time the season starts, but if his arm is fully healed, he could be a solid late round pick as a WR4 or WR5 with some nice upside due to Manziel’s presence.
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