Trade from strength, right? That’s what we tell you. When you’re looking to make a trade in your fantasy baseball league, we always tell you to evaluate your team, find your surplus and then hunt for a team in your league who has what you need and needs what you have. It’s really as simple as that. Sure, there’s some wiggle room to dance around, but for the most part, it’s a pretty easy concept with which to adhere.

Here’s the issue, though. What happens when you look at your team and think you have a surplus in a certain are but you really don’t? The reason I bring this up is because someone sent me a question asking about trading a pitcher for a hitter. It seemed innocuous at first, but then he finished off the question with, “…or should I just skip the trade and stay with a stacked pitching staff?” I looked at the players listed and all I could think was, “Stacked? How is this rotation stacked?”

Clayton Kershaw was his top starter. The unequivocal number one ace in the game. But then he said he had Jeremy Hellickson, Kendall Graveman and Matt Shoemaker as his next three starters. Now each guy has his merits, for sure, but I don’t think I’ve ever considered any of the three as members of a “stacked” rotation. Stacked for me would be Kershaw as my No. 1 with Dallas Keuchel, Marcus Stroman and Lance McCullers as my next three. THAT would be a stacked rotation and that’s going on the easy, sort of realistic side. Truly stacked would be Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Keuchel and Jacob deGrom. So needless to say, “stacked” would be one of the last words I would use to describe his rotation.

But then he listed his pitchers on the DL and suddenly I realized what he was thinking. David Price and James Paxton are both due back relatively soon and the addition of the two of them would leave him with a “stacked” rotation. While the names are certainly better than the other three hurlers he currently uses, can we really look at Price and Paxton and be comfortable with the fact that they will return to form? Would you feel comfortable with a top three of Kershaw, Price and Paxton?

I suppose, in a vacuum, yes, Kershaw, Price and Paxton would be a formidable three to lead your fantasy rotation. If Kershaw continues to be the best pitcher in the game and both Price and Paxton return to their optimal level, you’d be hard-pressed to have a better trio of arms. The problem for me, though, is that I can’t make that determination about Price and Paxton without seeing them pitch in a major league game. It’s not that I don’t believe each to be capable to return to form, but to make a trade now based on what I hope they’ll do when they return seems like more risk than I would want to take.

I’ve definitely preached taking that leap of faith with particular players, but that’s more to do with hot and cold starts. I will take a chance that Player A will rebound from his slow start and return to form. I will take a chance that Player B will not cool down and continue producing for me at a high level. But taking a chance on a pitcher to return from an elbow issue or a forearm strain is a much different story. I have no problem stashing a pitcher and taking a chance on his strong return, but I am certainly not going to trade away one of my better starters right now with the expectation that my formerly injured pitchers will be just fine.

Take a look at the number of pitchers who have already been on and off the disabled list this year. Rich Hill? His blisters have perpetually had him on and off the DL. Aaron Sanchez? Another blister boy who went on the Dl, came off and went right back on. Aaron Nola? He came back for a solid first start, but that was after a setback that kept him out longer than expected. How about Jon Gray and his toe which later turned into more of a top-of-the-foot injury? That started in the spring, he came back and has now been on the DL since mid-April. Felix Hernandez, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Skaggs and has anyone even heard from Steven Matz lately?

Now some of these guys are easy bounce-back candidates. Nola, for example. But with the number of setbacks and problems upon first returning we’ve seen from pitchers lately, can we every say for certain that they’ll be just fine? I’m much more comfortable saying that about a position player than I am a pitcher. Let’s face it…pitcher injuries hit harder and bouncing back is, in my opinion, a lot harder to do.

Now again, I’m not trying to sit here and run down starters who are coming back from the disabled list. Quite the opposite. You can stash them all you want and see what happens. Some will hit and some may not.  But what I am saying here is that you cannot expect them to automatically come back and pitch in vintage form. I love Price as a starter, but this is a long-term elbow issue he is overcoming. His drop-off last year is still fresh in my mind and expecting him to return to vintage David Price is a bad way to evaluate your team’s surplus. Same with Paxton. Sure, the MRI came back clean, but forearm tightness and elbow problems go hand in hand. You have to be cautious and trading away other starters because you’re getting these guys back, while definitely ballsy, is not the move to make.