You can reach Ray Flowers on Twitter (@baseballguys).
Brian Dozier or Addison Russell in a keeper league?
@DMerTz_
I can’t fathom why everyone is so down on Dozier. I know exactly why it is actually. (A) People are short-sighted and (B) people don’t’ know who Dozier is. Let me speak to (A). The last three years Dozier is first in homers, 1st in runs and 4th in RBI at second base. That’s elite level work folks as he’s averaged 23 homers, 71 RBI and 95 runs scored. Let’s move on to (B). Dozier has been an elite run producer for three years. Very little reason to think he won’t be at year’s end this season. Moreover, his 0.58 BB/K ratio is better than his 0.48 career mark. His 20.8 percent line drive rate is two tenths off his career mark. His .304 OBP is only .010 points below his career norm. He’s hitting .220, and that stinks, but the guy is only a .238 career batter anyway.
Russell also is batting average challenged with a .245 mark through 595 big league at-bats. In that time, a full season of work, Addison has hit 17 homers with 81 RBI and 76 runs scored. He’s only swiped five bases. Very heartening to see that his walk rate is way up and that he’s posted a .366 OBP to date.
I’m not going to say that Russell isn’t a better talent, he is, but I would say that Dozier is a more stable option given his track record. In the end you have to decide what matters most to you. Given that Russell will be shortstop eligible next year, and Dozier only second base, I can lean to Russell while also admitting people are giving up on Dozier much too easily in many instances.
Do I dump Dallas Keuchel in a trade for Rich Hill or hold on and hope he rights the ship?
@thememanxx
Keuchel has not been up to par, by any measure, this season. Still, there’s no way I’m dropping/dealing him for Hill. Here is why. Hill is 36 years old and last threw 50-innings in the big leagues in 2009. He’s thrown 100-innings one time in his 11 previous seasons. There’s no way Hill maintains his 10.92 K/9 mark. Hill is boasting a terrible 4.12 BB/9 rate that is just five hundredths below his career mark. He just walks too many batters. You can find good things with Hill, I get it, but I can’t overlook the previous decade with him.
I have an extra bench spot. Should I add Joc Pederson, Brandon Guyer or Steve Pearce in a 10-team, h2H weekly league?
@absoluteVaccaNY
I keep getting questions about Joc Pederson. Not really sure why there is a debate about whether or not he should be on a roster. Joc is on pace to hit 30 homers with 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Why wouldn’t that be good enough to get him a spot on a roster? Pederson also has a .368 OBP which is better than Yoenis Cespedes (.364), George Springer (.357) and Kris Bryant (.354) to name just a few. Pederson also has a .548 SLG that is better than Mike Trout (.541), Giancarlo Stanton (.515) and Nelson Cruz (.511). I really don’t understand the issue folks have with Pederson who has a .916 OPS. He’s the best add of the trio.
I wrote about Guyer two days again in Daily Trends.
As for Pearce, his positional flexibility is great, and he’s performing very well this season… that is when a lefty is on the hill. When facing righties this season he’s been awful (.208/.292/.328). Of course, he is insanely hot against lefties (1.401 OPS, five homers in 35 at-bats) making him an excellent daily play.
What do guys like Archer, deGrom, Gray, Harvey, Hernandez, Stroman and Price have in common? They’ve all started slower than expected in 2016. Is it all doom and gloom? Check out this Daily Trends piece.
Should I stash Ken Giles? Not that he's been great either but seems like Luke Gregerson is blowing a save every other day.
@thenicksheerin
Gregerson has a solid 1.08 WHIP. However, his walk rate is a bit up, his 2.55 mark per nine would be a four year high, and his 6.62 K/9 rate is two full batters below his career level. He’s also saved just 8-of-11 opportunities this season. More concerning is that Gregerson has allowed a run in each of his last two outings and over his last seven games his ERA is 8.10 with a 1.80 WHIP. He’s clearly in a tailspin.
Giles, who is slightly more talented than Luke, has been a disaster for most of the season. Overall Giles owns a 6.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, and that’s flat out terrible. He does have 21 punchouts in just 15.2 innings and has tossed a scoreless outing on the board in 7-of-8 outings. "I can't put him in any [more of a] high-leverage situation than bases loaded against their two- and three-hole hitters," manager A.J. Hinch said. "I've never lost faith in him.” Adding Giles now, before others notice the recent trends, ain’t a bad idea at all.
Jeff Mans brings you his plays of the day for the big slate tonight. Including his top pitcher and his value play of the day in this video.
Ten team roto 5x5. I've got J.T. Realmuto. Salvador Perez just got dropped. JP's end of season BA less or more than .270?
@mark_d_barrett
Realmuto is a .271 career hitter at the big league level. As a minor leaguer he hit .268. Asking .270 makes sense on the surface since it certainly looks like he should be able to hit that benchmark. Did I mention that Realmuto is batting .320 this season? Let’s play a game. The Marlins have played 39 games which means that Realmuto, who has 125 at-bats, is averaging 3.21 at-bats a game. Take that number, times 162, and we’re left with a total of 519 at-bats. JT hit .259 last season. Let’s say he hits .259 the rest of this season. If we add the .320 hitter to this point, with the .259 hitter the rest of the way we end up with a .273 batting average. Seems like, yes, a run to .270 is looking pretty good.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
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