STRUGGLING BIG NAME HURLERS

There are a whole ton of upper level hurlers who have been pretty darn sucky, a fancy pants word, in the early going this season.

Chris Archer has allowed two or fewer runs in 4-of-5 starts. Alas, he still owns a 3-4 record and 4.38 ERA, which when you add in his 1.52 WHIP paints him as a decidedly poor option in the early going. Archer has also walked an unconscionable 4.56 walk rate per nine innings. On the plus side his 1.43 GB/FB ratio is right on his career level (1.40). His 11.13 K/9 rate is elite and is exactly two full batters above his career rate. There’s also his recent run of effectiveness. He’s still not “right” but there are certain signs of improvement. Gotta cut down those pesky walks though.

Jacob deGrom was covered in Hurlers in the News.

Sonny Gray has a dreadful 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He’s also allowing a massive 1.61 homers per nine innings, double his 0.74 career mark. That’s the entirely unacceptable. Now the good. Gray has a 7.66 K/9 mark, a three year high. Gray has a 54.3 percent ground ball rate, one tenth above his career norm. Gray has a 1.81 GB/FB ratio, just a tenth off his career norm. His fastball velocity is only down a half a mph. Doesn’t seem like there is anything wrong with his arm. The issue is throwing strikes. Much like with Archer, Gray has seen an explosion in his walk rate. For his career the mark is a league average 2.91 per nine. This season the rate is 4.03 per nine. The homers will come down, bank on that, and with that the numbers should start to normalize.

Zack Greinke has a 5.08 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Greinke has an ERA under 3.50 in each of the last four seasons, and that WHIP has been 1.20 or lower 5-straight years. Things will get better, just cause. They will also get better if you check out his underlying measures. Greinke has an 8.10 K/9 rate this season, one hundredth off his career norm. Greinke has a 1.91 BB/9 rate, below his 2.18 career rate. Greinke has a 1.71 GB/FB ratio. That would be a career best. Furthermore, look past his ERA to SIERA and xFIP. His SIERA this season is 3.58, just seven hundredths above his career norm. His xFIP this season is 3.37, one tenth better than his career ratio. Greinke is a prime buy low option.

Matt Harvey’s fastball is one mph below his career norm, not as bad as many seem to think. Moreover, things have improved of late with a five run stretch of starts that show Harvey to be… back? Really they do. He might only be 3-2 in that time but check out the overall level of performance. Over his last five outings he’s been vintage Harvey with a 10.16 K/9, 1.91 BB/9 leading to a 5.33 K/BB ratio. The ERA has still been elevated at 4.45, ditto the WHIP (1.52), but things are trending in the right direction. The only negative of late has been the .405 BABIP that is at least .100 points above where it will settle. Still time to buy low on Harvey which you might consider doing.

Felix Hernandez is throwing his fastball at 90.0 mph this season, two miles per hour below where the fastball has sat the last two seasons. That’s certainly an issue. Also at issue is a 7.41 K/9 rate which would be a career-low and a full batter below his mark last season and his career rate. Doubling down on the concern is the massive explosion in his walk rate as his 3.88 BB/9 rate is more than a full batter above what the rate has been in all but one of the previous 11 seasons (read that again). Note the positives though. Felix has a 1.20 WHIP, even with all those walks, just three hundredths above his norm. Felix has allowed a 0.88 HR/9 rate, just barely above his 0.74 career mark. Felix has a 52.8 percent ground ball rate, just barely below his 54.4 percent career mark. Felix has allowed a 17.6 percent line drive rate which is below his career level of 18.1 percent. It’s not perfect but people are overlooking the fact that, even with diminishing skills, Hernandez can still pitch.

David Price has a 6.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He’s the best pitcher ever to post those numbers (some slight hyperbole). His 12.19 K/9 rate is elite. Ditto his 5.00 K/BB ratio. His 0.75 HR/9 rate is right on his career mark (0.80). His 1.29 GB/FB ratio is right on his career average (1.24). A lot of the blame early on comes from his inability to put away batters out of the stretch, that and the .379 BABIP he’s posted as well that is .090 points above normal. Folks, in all of his career only once has his BABIP been .300 (it was .306 in 2014). Finally, his 2.83 SIERA and 2.72 xFIP are both less than half his raw ERA, so good times are certainly ahead (the xFIP by the way would be a career best, the SIERA the second best of his illustrious career).

Marcus Stroman was really good in the early going, but all of a sudden his ERA sits at 4.23 after the seven run beating he took Tuesday night at the hands of the Rays. That number will come down, and I’m in love with the 61 percent ground ball rate, the lack of homers (0.58 per nine) and the lack of walks (2.48 per nine). Alternatively, I’m a bit concerned that his K/9 rate is a mere 6.19 over his last 13 starts. Unless the strikeouts pick up he’s doesn’t profile much differently than Kyle Hendricks.

 

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Chis Herrmann has an .893 OPS this season. He’s also gone deep four times with 16 RBI in 22 games. His last eight outings he’s hit two homers, driven in nine runs and scored eight times. Nathan Eovaldi allows lefties to hit .310/.367/.532.

FIRST BASE: Hanley Ramirez has gone .385/.475/.635 in May with 10 RBI and 14 runs scored. Edinson Volquez has allowed righties to hit .296 with a .355 OBP.    

SECOND BASE: Robinson Cano hammers Chris Tillman with a 1.177 OPS, two homers and eight RBI over 34 plate appearances. Cano is also batting .381 with a 1.208 OPS on the road this season.   

THIRD BASE: Danny Valencia has six homers and nine RBI his last five games. He faces lefty Martin Perez blasting away against lefties with a .375/.444/.917 slash line.  

SHORTSTOP: Alexei Ramirez has nine hits in 14 at-bats against Johnny Cueto. Do it.

OUTFIELD: Mat Latos allowed eight walks and 13 runs over his last 15.1 innings. Colby Rasmus is 6-for-11 against Latos.

OUTFIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury has a hit in 3-straight games while scoring three times. He faces Shelby Miller who has allowed lefties to bat .300 with a .438 OBP.   

OUTFIELD: Gerardo Parra is batting .328 with a .828 OPS in May. He faces Wainwright who has been blasted by lefties for a .324 average and .351 OBP.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).