Fantasy Football Target Watch: Shifting Targets

The diligent fantasy owner needs no reminder. The diligent fantasy owner pays attention to the data and the trends. The diligent fantasy owner is thorough and precise. However, even the most diligent of fantasy owners can lapse in study and somehow miss a few things here and there. Maybe not something as dramatic as Victor Cruz tearing a patella tendon and knowing where his future targets will be distributed, but perhaps the re-emergence of Jordan Reed and decline in production from Niles Paul escapes their attention. While many players remain favorite targets of their quarterbacks throughout the season, there are always targets shifts to which fantasy owners must pay attention. There’s nothing worse than finding out after your fantasy team has lost that your player is no longer the target-monster you once enjoyed.

While eventually we can expect Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to dominate the targets in Chicago, there’s been a tremendous shift here in the first third of the season as Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte are leading the charge. There’s even been a slight shift in that over the last two weeks as Forte has racked up 25 targets to Marshall’s and Jeffery’s 14 apiece and Bennett’s 13. Now obviously there’s a combination of things in play as Marshall has been banged up and the coverage on Forte coming out of the backfield has been lax, but when teams are tired of getting burned by the short screens and check-downs, the targets will increase for the receivers again.

Other shifts we’ve seen that bear notice include the increased passing attack in Buffalo, the shift in Detroit sans Megatron, the swing in targets for DeSean Jackson versus Pierre Garcon, the obvious bump in targets for Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham, the rise of Mohamed Sanu and possibly even Brandon Tate, the decline of Kendall Wright and the fading looks to Brian Quick. We also can’t ignore the absence of legitimate passing attacks in Minnesota, Kansas City and for the New York Jets. Even receivers leading those teams in target percentage are still lousy fantasy options. The shifts are a regular thing, so make sure you’re following the trends and not just the player names.

Week 6 Target Leaders

One potential shift we failed to mention above comes from the return of Cecil Shorts. After missing Week 5, Shorts came back strong with 10 catches on 16 targets for 103 yards. He may not have found the end zone this time around, but he at least saw one of the two available red zone targets. Quarterback Blake Bortles has done fine with Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson, but Shorts’ talent far surpasses theirs. If he can just stay healthy, he could have a huge second half for you.

While you couldn’t possibly think that there would be another silver lining to the disgustingness that is the Jets, Eric Decker might not be sitting alone as the only viable player to use in fantasy league. The Jets used a second round pick on Jace Amaro and it only took them until Week 6 to actually incorporate him into the passing attack. Across the board, his numbers last week were season/career-highs and he actually has a chance to build off this as his Thursday opponent, the Patriots, rank 22ns against the tight end this year.

As mentioned above, Jordan Reed returned to action and saw a whopping 11 targets to just two for Niles Paul. It would seem that Reed has immediately been slotted back in as the top[ tight end and given the offensive scheme, there are simply not enough targets to make both worthwhile fantasy options. Paul goes back to the waiver scrap-heap and Reed, if somehow still available, is a must-own. Of course, watch his injury history. You could be flipping them back again in no time.

While it’s nice to see a showing of support guys like Markus Wheaton, Jerricho Cotchery and Robert Woods, none of them can really be counted on to sustain that level of production. They each might have their flashes here and there, but if you’re in a league with 14 teams or fewer, none of them should be relied upon as anything more than a hopeful bye-week filler. I will say that Wheaton may have a little more potential than the other two. I’m still iffy on him but as you’ll read further down, there are some trends occurring that might keep him on your radar.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

For those so quick to usher out the Andre Johnson era and celebrate the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, be careful with who you’re underselling. Over the last three weeks, Johnson has seen 27 targets to Hopkins’ 14 and his 33.5-percent target rate is second in the NFL. The Texans are still a run-first team and have only 161 passing attempts all season (fifth fewest in the league), but Johnson is still seeing as many targets as Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas right now.

Obviously, the target distribution in Cincinnati will change once A.J. Green’s toe is healed, but don’t expect much of a change in Mohamed Sanu’s numbers as he’ll remain a heavily leaned upon No. 2 receiver. Marvin Jones was just put on season-ending IR and Sanu’s reliability lately will not be forgotten. Brandon Tate will enjoy riding shotgun in the Queen City for the time being and will be relegated to No. 3 soon enough. However, don’t expect too much of a drop-off there either as the Bengals don’t really use the tight end as a target. Tate should still see some looks, possibly worthy of a bye-week WR3 spot if the match-up is right.

Easy come, easy go? That’s what it looks like for Heath Miller who has seen his target rate drop significantly over the last two weeks. He went from averaging nearly seven targets per game over the first four weeks to averaging just four over the last two games. Wheaton was the obvious beneficiary of that drop-off and could start to be utilized a bit more in the passing attack than before. Watch for the target distribution in Week 7 against Houston before jumping all-in.

Red Zone Target Leaders

It may sound silly, but some people need to be reminded – when looking at red zone target percentage, you have to make sure you’re also looking at the targets as well. Unlike regular target rate where you can have a strong rate and still be successful on a run-first team, red zone target rate doesn’t work as well with that. Take Allen Robinson for example. He’s got the fifth highest red zone target rate here on the leaderboard, but with just four red zone targets, you’re not getting much out of him. The Jags have a hard time consistently getting into the red zone, so even if Robinson is their go-to guy, he’s not really pulling much down, is he? For some of you, this is obvious. For others, not so much.

While we mentioned Martellus Bennett’s decline in overall targets, one place we haven’t seen the drop-off is in the red zone.  He’s second in the league with 12 red zone targets this season and has average three per game over his last four games. The yardage he accrues may dwindle, but so long as he keeps scoring touchdowns, he’ll be just fine.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 7 Match-up to Watch

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens – Well we already saw what Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing attack is capable of doing to a soft defense, and you don’t get much softer than the Falcons who are allowing an average of 278 passing yards per game and have given up six passing touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks are also enjoying a solid 98.2 passer rating. The Smith boys should have a nice day. On the other side, the Ravens pass defense isn’t so hot themselves. Sure, they can contain Tampa Bay, but Matt Ryan should be licking his chops with the Ravens allowing 271 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and a fairly unproductive pass rush. Julio Jones should post another strong stat line, as should Roddy White, but maybe check out sleeper Devin Hester this week.