To trade or not to trade? Should you drop player A?  Is player B worth picking up?  These are questions that every single fantasy player, yes myself included, find themselves trying to figure out on a daily basis throughout the season.  To make these types of decisions it takes more than just taking a player’s stats at face value. Often times there are reasons a player is having a good year and just as many reasons as to why a player is struggling.  This article will give you justified reasons as to why you should be buying or selling on certain players.  

To give you an example of what you can expect going forward here are a few players I am buying and selling to start the season.

Hitters

Selling

Brad Miller (Rays-1B/SS) - Before I go into why I am selling on Miller I would like to admit that I did own him in the second half of last season and took full advantage of the impressive power numbers that he produced. That being said, I just don’t believe he is capable of being a consistent 30-home run hitter.  He had a career year in 2016, his first season with the Rays, as he hit .243 with 30 home runs, 81 RBI, 73 runs scored and six stolen bases. He also posted a .786 OPS with a .239 Isolated Power mark (ISO).  That is certainly quite the stat line for a player who, prior to 2016, averaged just 10.5 home runs over the previous two seasons. Other players who had a .239 ISO in 2016 consist of Manny Machado (Orioles-3B/SS), Todd Frazier (White Sox-3B), Carlos Santana (Indians-1B/DH) and Chris Davis (Orioles-1B/DH).  Just based off name recognition  alone , it is easy to say that  Miller does  not quite fit with that group of power hitters.  In the second half last year, Miller’s ISO was at .264 which, put him in line with home run hitters like Nelson Cruz (Mariners-OF/DH), Edwin Encarnacion (Indians-1B/DH), Josh Donaldson (Blue Jays-3B) and Kris Bryant (Cubs-3B/OF).  Miller doesn’t quite pass the name test there either.  The increase in raw power led Miller’s HR/FB rate to jump from 10.3 percent in 2015 to 20.4 percent last season.  Now it would make sense that increased raw power would lead to increased home run production, but that kind of power just doesn’t seem sustainable from a player who was never thought of as a premier power hitter at any level of his career.  He also hit 22 of his 30 home runs at Tropicana Field which ranked 22nd out of 30 teams in Park Factors for home runs meaning Miller hit over 70-percent of his home runs at the ninth-worst park for power hitters.  One can assume that it’s unlikely for him to repeat that type of power production at home.  Miller’s ADP had him going around the 12th round in most fantasy drafts but if that power does regress, as I think it will, you could be looking at a player whose production is similar to that of Neil Walker, a player floating around the waiver wire in some leagues.

Buying

Yasmani Grandal (Dodgers-C) - Grandal was a player I was high on heading into the start of the season as I felt he provided the power upside that few at the catcher position could offer.  Grandal hit just .228 in 2016 but in the second half of the season he hit .245 which, is right in line with most of the catchers in the league.  With that .245 average, he also hit 15 second half home runs, thanks in large part to a 25.2-percent HR/FB rate he produced.  That increased HR/FB rate was also aided by the fact that he hit more fly balls in 2016 and increased his hard contact percentage to 38.9-percent.  Hitting more fly balls at a harder contact percentage will naturally lead to increased home run production.  Some more interesting stats with Grandal are his road/home splits.  Grandal really loves the home cooking as he hit .278 with 20 home runs, 50 RBI and an .OPS of .999 at home in 2016.  The Dodgers have played just one game so far in 2017 and it was in Dodger Stadium so naturally Grandal went and hit two home runs. It looks like that power is the real deal and if you can stream your catcher, playing Grandal at home is looking like a trend that you should be buying into as well.

Pitchers

Selling

Marco Estrada (Blue Jays-RHP) - For the last few seasons no pitcher has screamed regression more than Marco Estrada in my opinion.  Since joining the Blue Jays in 2015, Estrada has gone 22-17 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.  On the surface those numbers are more than acceptable and for fantasy owners, it has made Estrada a middle of the rotation fantasy starter.  My issue with him is that the numbers just do not make sense to me.  First off, Estrada has managed to maintain incredibly low batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) against him over these past two years.  Estrada led all of baseball with a .216 BABIP in 2015 and last season he again led the league with a .234 BABIP.  A low BABIP would make sense if, say Estrada was an extreme groundball pitcher or a premier strikeout pitcher where hitters just aren’t making good contact but neither is the case with Estrada as he averages a near 50-percent fly ball rate.  The fact that he has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, at a rate better than league average, is even more impressive given that he pitches in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and the A.L. East in general.  Looking even deeper into the Estrada’s production, you will see that his Fielder Independent Pitching ERA (FIP) is over a full run higher than his actual ERA which indicates that Estrada is getting fairly lucky.  Now Estrada did begin to show signs of regression in the second half of 2016, as he owned a 4.27 ERA and a .285 BABIP, leading to a 4.19 FIP, which all make much more sense for a pitcher of his caliber.  So, fantasy owners, if you own Estrada and find that he is once again off to a strong start ,you should check those underlying stats and see if his numbers actually hold up.  If they do, then great keep him on your team. However, if you find that there are regression indicators like I described above, then I would look to move on from him sooner rather than later.

Buying

Michael Pineda (Yankees-RHP) - I wrote about Pineda for the Deep Sleeper Series here but since he is a player I feel strongly about for this upcoming season I am going to include him in the buy section here as well.  Pineda had some of the worst batted ball luck in the league in 2016 as his BABIP was second worst in the league at .339.  Over the last two seasons Pineda has owned ERAs of 4.37 and 4.82 but, his FIPs are 3.34 and 3.80 respectively, which would indicate that Pineda is pitching much better than his actual numbers would indicate.  Those are the type of things I look at when I am trying to find a player to buy-low on.  Fantasy owners tend to be very emotional and if they happen to see Pineda get blown up for a few starts they may be quick to trade or even release him onto the waiver wire and that would be to your advantage.  Now I know you are going to clap back at me and say something along the lines of “But Jon, Pineda did ultimately suck last season.” And while I can’t defend the fact that he did finish with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP which are well below what fantasy owners should want you also can’t ignore the fact that he struck out 207 hitters over 175.2 innings.  His WHIP, ERA, and likely 6-12 record is the reason that Pineda’s ADP was so low. If he could have dropped that ERA to match his FIP in 2016 while maintaining those 207 strikeouts you would be looking at a guy going much higher in fantasy drafts.  I am buying Pineda this season.  Check the waiver wire if you find yourself in shallower league formats as he is worth stashing on your bench, and if you feel adventurous enough I would go ahead and try to trade for him before he takes the mound as a few good starts will only increase his price tag.