Setting up your fantasy baseball rotation for the second half can be a tricky thing. In head-to-head formats, you need a strong but balanced group of starters unless you’re going the all-reliever route. Loading up on aces is nice for the second-half push, but come playoff time, if they don’t all have two-start weeks, you’re going to get burned by those who stream in guys for each week’s match-up. If you’re in a roto league, you’re obviously looking for as many studs with strong ratios and high strikeout rates, but you also have to be careful as many of these hurlers are also sitting on innings-limits and pitch-counts. There’s also a fine line you have to walk regarding pitchers on the trade block as not everyone is going to land in as lush a situation as Jose Quintana just did.
Everyone needs to build their rotations according to their league specs and personalized situations. There is no blanket formula that covers them all. But below is a list of pitchers who are going to require some special attention from you in the coming weeks. Some could be in danger of having starts skipped while others could be shut down entirely. It’s up to you to determine what you need exactly, so assess their fantasy value based on what you think you need most in the second half.
Luis Severino, NYY – He threw 161.1 innings in 2013 and just over 151 innings last season. Standard year-to-year increases tend to be in the 30-innings range, so the question of whether or not the Yankees feel the need to hold him back and conserve his innings is certainly in-play here. The loss of Michael Pineda to a partially torn UCL is going to create some problems here for the Yankees, so they are likely to seek outside assistance to fill out the rest of the rotation, but if they can get a role player in pinstripes along with a bigger helping hand, it may allow them to pull back on Severino’s use. His contribution for strikeouts has been big, so if you do feel the need to move him in hopes of landing a more stable veteran, you need to make sure you focus on guys with a strong K-rate.
Lance McCullers, HOU – One of the biggest breakouts this season has been McCullers and the thought of not having him for your stretch run is definitely disconcerting. Not only are we looking at the potential of skipped-starts to limit his innings before the playoffs, but you also have to take into consideration that the Astros are going to be super-cautious due to the number of injuries incurred by their rotation this season, including McCullers’ stay on the DL earlier this season. What could actually come out of this is the return of Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh could provide the team with enough relief that they can hold back McCullers a little bit, but not so much that you’re sweating things in August. Given their lead in the AL West, though, you can expect a number of call-ups to help supplement the starting rotation as they prepare for the playoffs. Remember, McCullers threw fewer than 90 innings last year and even if you account for the 150 innings he threw in 2015, he still may need to be held back at some point.
Brad Peacock, HOU – He’s in a very similar situation as McCullers and even worse is his extensive injury history, most notably the return from elbow surgery. The Astros have been holding him to a strict pitch count so far this season and it’s worked out well for them, so while his contribution in strikeouts has been nice, the fact that they won’t let him go too deep into games should always be a concern. We’ll have a much better idea come the end of this month, but don’t be surprised if Peacock gets pulled from the rotation to conserve him for the playoffs before Joe Musgrove.
Sean Manaea, OAK – While the A’s may only be 7.5 games out of the wild card right now, their chances of making a playoff push seem very slim. They’re also shopping around Sonny Gray which tells us they are not expecting some massive turnaround. With that, you can definitely expect them to handle Manaea with kid gloves. He threw just over 165 innings last year so you may be able to expect him to float into the 180-innings range this season. If that’s the case, then we could be looking at another 15 or 16 starts from him as he’s only at the 97-innings mark right now. In theory, that could keep him on-pace to continue through September, and that actually keeps him more on my radar for holding a spot in my second-half rotation.
James Paxton, SEA – He’s been a little Jekyll & Hyde this season and the injuries are always a concern, but having thrown 171 innings last year after throwing just over 73 innings the year before seems to indicate the Mariners are ready to loosen those reins a little bit. The team is just four games out of the wild card and while it’s been rumored they’re looking for long-term pitching help on the trade front, it doesn’t appear as if they are doing so with sitting down Paxton in mind. They may not let him get up to 200, but since he’s thrown fewer than 90 innings this season, there seems to be a lot of wiggle room here.
Aaron Nola, PHI – Here is one that is likely to bite you come late-August/early-September. The Phillies are way out of contention and they have absolutely no reason to push their young arms right now. No matter how well Nola pitches in July and early-August (and I expect him to pitch really well), we are probably looking at a potential shut-down late in the year. He threw almost 190 innings back in 2015 as he was ascending through the Phillies system, but they held him to just around 111 innings last year. He’s right around the 90-inning mark this season, so pay attention to what they say about him over his next few starts to help get a better idea of what the team plan is.
Alex Wood, LAD – Hard to tell whether it’s fortunate or unfortunate that you should see Wood handled the same way in the second half as he was in the first. Dave Roberts has been a disaster with limiting Wood to 85 pitches or five innings (whichever comes first) throughout the first half and with the Dodgers heading towards a divisional title and playoff run, you can expect Roberts to pretty much do the same thing. Your ratios should look uber-tasty and the strikeouts should be ample, but just imagine what he could do for your fantasy rotation if allowed to go seven or eight innings consistently.
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