Fantasy Baseball RPV Breakdown: Was First the Best Choice?

In fantasy baseball, you never stop analyzing nor do you ever stop trying to evolve. A baseball season is a living, breathing organism and often times evolves into something we never thought was possible. Heading into the 2015 season, the “conventional wisdom” was that third base was a wasteland. It turned out that Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado destroyed that notion. 2016 was supposed to be the year where front line starter depth was unflappable. Unfortunately, many of those “top” starters have flapped their way to the DL or disappointing seasons.

First base is usually a reliable source of fantasy offense where we can seek refuge from the inconsistency of other positions year to year. There are two school of thought when it comes to this position. The first is grab an elite player in the early rounds as a lineup anchor. The second strategy is to practice patience and draw value form its depth late on in the draft. The only way to look back and see which strategy held true in 2016 is to use Relative Position Value (RPV).

Here’s the RPV for the top 25 first basemen in fantasy YTD:

Well one thing is clear, the top flight bats like Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt and Edwin Encarnacion have all been +20% RPV or better compared to the fantasy league average at the position. You paid top dollar for these sluggers and they have returned that investment. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of fantasy darlings like Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Eric Hosmer and Jose Abreu. Abreu especially has been brutal falling to a -13% RPV. They were all considered in second tier first basemen and they have all failed owners for the most part. The only second tier guy that’s held value has been the polarizing Joey Votto.

As far as the lower end/depth guys, well not too much has been gained there either. Albert Pujols was unable to carry over his 2015 power rebirth and the usually steady Adrian Gonzalez has been a non-factor (-8%). Calculated late flyers like Mark Trumbo and Wil Myers have been the boon to this otherwise bust of a position. Both offered legit power and now that they were 100% healthy, they were able to capitalize on playing time.

First base in 2016 has rewarded the big spenders or the dollar store shoppers. The usually cushy mid-tier of the position has left us sticking to the plastic covered couch this August and that’s not a fun place. Looking ahead to 2017, it’s shaping up to be another year to “pay-up” for the elite tier of this position. There’s too much age and decline in this once abundant garden of power and productivity. Personally, I’d rather pay for the name brand, rather than hoping to find my remedy with a generic option.

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.