Fantasy Baseball RPV Breakdown: The Kershaw Effect

The Golden Era of Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez circa 1999, the Cy Young runs of Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux have all been special. However, what we’re seeing this year from Clayton Kershaw has the potential to surpass them all. Martinez’s performance in the late 90’s/early ‘00’s was unique because it was happening in the midst of the steroid era. But even Major League Baseball’s official historian John Thorn will tell you the current era is the most competitive and athletic version of our nation’s pastime that’s ever been played. In fantasy sports terms, Kershaw has been dominant in all formats and league depths. Using The Fantasy Black Book’s Relative Position Value (RPV) tool, we can see just how valuable his 2016 campaign has been so far.

First, let’s examine the numbers. Kershaw has 13 QS in 14 starts this year. In his lone bad start, which resulted in a loss, he still struck out 10 Marlins. He leads the league in wins (10), ERA (1.58), strikeouts (133), innings (108), CG (3), SHO (3), WHIP (.67), BB/9 (.6), H/9 (5.3) and K/BB ratio (19). No, that last one is not a typo. His 133 K’s to just 7 walks results in an absurd K/BB ratio of 19! In an age where pitching is already dominating the landscape, his ERA Plus is an astounding +243 (also leading the league). His league leading XFIP proves there’s no “luck” at play, either. When your XFIP is 1.64 you’re frankly playing in a different universe.

So, how does this brilliance translate into fantasy terms? You can’t judge Kershaw against the starting pitcher position as a collective. Frankly. It’s unfair. Most teams in your league have an ace, if not two, depending on the league depth. Therefore, Kershaw’s numbers must be compared to his fellow “aces.” Heading into this year’s drafts, that pool seemed quite deep. Unfortunately, Matt Harvey, Chris Archer, Dallas Keuchel and a few others have not delivered on their ADP or auction price as “aces”.

Here’s Clayton Kershaw against the top 20 starting pitchers of 2016 YTD using a standard points scoring system:

Clayton Kershaw is a staggering +45% RPV. Again, that’s not compared to starting pitchers as a total entity. This is compared to the best of the best. That’s three times as valuable as any other “ace” in the league. If by some incredible situation where you own any other pitcher in the top 10, you’re creating an enormous RPV advantage at your No. 2 (and likely No. 3) rotation slots in your fantasy league. You basically need three of these top 20, just to keep pace with a team that has Kershaw and just respectable mid-level guys in their rotation.

It remains to be seen if he can continue this historic run. If he does, we could be seeing the greatest single season pitching performance in the history of baseball. As fantasy owners, but more importantly baseball fans, we should all be rooting for him to finish how he’s started. It’s good for our game on all fronts.

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.