Fantasy Baseball RPV Breakdown: Starting Pitching

Last week we took a look at the latest RPV from the outfield bats. That analysis gave us a great view of players’ values for the stretch run ahead and the 2017 season on the horizon. We’re closing in on playoff crunch time in many leagues where owners need to identify the pitchers they can rely on in August and September. It’s also the time for owners in keeper leagues who are looking to acquire assets for next season if things didn’t go their way. They need to zero in on the right targets so that doesn’t happen again next year.

With Clayton Kershaw on the shelf for a month now (and no return in sight), the Relative Position Value of the starting pitcher position has changed considerably. At one point, Kershaw was so far ahead of even the No. 1 starting pitcher tier, that the rest of the field’s value was skewed unfairly. Times have now changed, and the new RPV as of early August is a tighter race.

Here’s the new and improved top 25:

It’s incredible to think Kershaw is still a +11 percent and hasn’t picked up a ball in weeks. That’s how insane his run was before his back gave way. Justin Verlander (+8 percent RPV) has been a pleasant surprise in the top 10. The last few seasons have been underwhelming for this one time Cy Young/MVP, but his strikeout rate has returned,  and with it 17 quality starts in 23 outings. The good news is that the veteran carries very little risk of wearing down during the dog days of August ahead.

Even more of a surprise than Verlander has been J.A. Happ. That short stint in Pittsburgh last year has really carried over this season with a vengeance. His 15-3 record is indicative of his ability to force weak contact and get outs in big spots. The strikeout rate may be a notch below elite, but Happ has been the biggest draft day starting pitcher value of 2016. If Happ has been the best bonus, David Price (-14 percent RPV) has been the biggest disappointment. Inconsistencies start to start have driven his owners absolutely mad this year. The ERA north of 4.00 and his lackluster nine wins have not been worthy of the investment made on him this offseason by the Red Sox or fantasy owners. He had three straight 10 K games and then gave up 8 ER over the next two games and didn’t make it out of the sixth inning. I keep waiting for the “Pennant Race Price” to show up, but so far he’s nowhere to be found. Maybe we can chalk it up to him just pressing under his new deal like Zack Greinke’s first year in LA. 

Aaron Sanchez will be relegated to a six-man rotation for the rest of the season. That will hurt his value in head-to-head leagues. You’re lucky if you get one two-start week out of him the rest of the season. Cole Hamels has been solid this season, but his home/road (4.22 ERA)/(1.90 ERA) splits bare witness in all formats where you have the depth to bench him in Arlington. Jose Quintana has been brilliant this year, but again is the victim of the White Sox inadequacies. He would be my prime target in trades in keeper leagues as his peripheral stats are unbelievably steady year after year. Steven Wright has to be the sell high guy if you still have the chance. Knuckleball pitchers cannot be trusted in fantasy.

Jacob deGrom and Kenta Maeda just missed the cutoff. deGrom has been solid this year despite a lack of run support. I would expect him to finish in the top 25 easily by season’s end. Maeda on the other hand, I would steer clear of based on workload concerns caching up with him. I can only hope you heeded the warnings I gave a few weeks ago about Drew Pomeranz. He has a 6-plus ERA since moving to Boston and is dropping like an anchor in the overall pitcher leader board. If you don’t stay ahead of the wave, you’ll undoubtedly get swept away by the tide.

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.