Fantasy Baseball RPV Breakdown: August 9

By: Joe Pisapia @JoePisapia17

This is the beginning of the DFS cycle when new players signing up for football season will “dabble” in baseball out of boredom. This is a HUGE mistake, for them. Baseball is an unforgiving mistress in DFS and requires infinitely more preparation than the NFL. That’s not to say NFL DFS is easy, but you can’t compare a sport that has so much dependable volume to baseball where four at-bats carry so many variables.

The good news is that there’s lots of “fresh meat” on its way, especially in GPP’s where new players will see big prize pools and blindly enter lineups that simply won’t get the job done. Now is the time to switch your focus over from cash games to tournaments if you’ve managed your bankroll responsibly.

Here are the trends, matchups and information you need to know for Week 19 in the world of DFS.

PLAYER AT PEAK SALARY TO AVOID:

Brian Dozier MIN ($5.2K Draft Kings)

The Twins have had a forgettable season, but Dozier has been a silver lining of late to their black cloud. The trouble is that his $5.2K salary doesn’t make him cost effective. All of his games are at home this week where he has only seven of his 22 home runs. In fact, his entire slash line takes a 20-30 point drop when at Target Field. Hot streak aside, you can save $300-400 by rostering Jose Altuve or Ian Kinsler instead whose game isn’t quite as reliant on the home run to be productive.

PITCHER PRICED BELOW VALUE:

Luis Severino NYY ($5.6K DraftKings/$6.6K FanDuel)

Severino’s early season stats were absolutely dreadful. He was placed on the DL and demoted to Triple-A where he slowly regained his health and confidence. The 22-year-old put together a very nice run during that 10-game minor league stretch going 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA. Now first assignment against Boston is a tall order (especially at Fenway), but his second start is a friendly one at home versus the Rays. Regardless, his price is so cheap that it’s hard not to take a chance on him as a secondary pitcher on Draft Kings tonight. His ownership will be low in GPP’s and his recent work out of the Yankees bullpen has been outstanding. A strong week will have him jump right back into the consciousness of fantasy owners. Be ahead of the curve.

HITTER PRICED BELOW VALUE:

Hunter Pence SF ($3.4K DraftKings/$3.3K FanDuel)

He’s missed significant time for the second straight year, but that’s only a concern for the season-long fantasy baseball owner. Hunter Pence is still a strong bat with plenty of pop who hits in the middle of the Giants order. It was to be expected it would take him a bit to get up to speed again, but he’s a straight up professional hitter who’s capable of getting hot very quickly and staying that way. Right now he’s priced like a third outfielder in the DFS world and that automatically makes him a desirable target.  

TARGETING TEAMS:

The Dodgers have played very well recently despite the loss of their all world ace Clayton Kershaw. This week they host the Phillies and the Pirates who have basically thrown in the white towel on 2016. Both opponents feature young rotations who won’t likely pass the sixth inning. That’s good news for the Dodgers bats who will see a nice sample size of mediocre relief pitching. The starting pitchers, too, will have increased win potential if they can outlast their limited counterparts. 

The Oakland A’s are 2-8 over their last 10 games and it won’t get easier for them this week against the Orioles and recently rejuvenated Mariners. The A’s rotation is out of their depth right now (no pun intended) and these offenses should have a field day with this subpar staff. The good news is that because these games are in Oakland it would see the cost of these bats are still rather reasonable. That’s an excellent combination to take advantage of in cash games where you want a big ticket arm headlining your roster. 

Here’s a look at tonight’s Relative Position Value per Dollar Lineup (RPVPD) for DraftKings. RPVPD is the Fantasy Black Book’s DFS player evaluation tool. For more Optimal Lineups head to FantasyAalrm.com for the DFS Playbook.

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.