So I decided this season to focus on GPP play and have completely forsaken cash games. My theory is simple, I join all the single entry GPP’s each day from $1 to $27 on FanDuel and DraftKings. Then I create a different starting lineup for each GPP using a different SP assigning the risk by dollar amount. For instance, yesterday I used Jacob deGrom in the $10 GPP and Mat Latos in the $1. It just seems that my bankroll has been growing since I stopped playing cash games and only playing in single entry GPPs.
Cash games are nice when you are hot but when you go cold playing a large volume of cash games can eat up a bankroll quick. Not to mention a few years ago in the glory days of cash games they were a lot easier. You did not have a million guys like me up at 3 a.m. researching the information for you. You did not have 100 guys on Twitter selling algorithms and lineups. All of this is slowly contributing to the death of cash games. On Sundays you used to be able to catch 20 percent of the competition without a catcher while now I imagine that number is much lower. We didn’t have lineup alert apps, weather apps, and the other assorted tools that have made keeping up with your DFS activities simple for even the newbie. As long as it works and I continue to be able to make withdrawals I will ride it.
My day on FanDuel was a complete loss on all slates for me yesterday falling just outside the cash line in my GPPs while on DraftKings I took a minor loss but one I find more than acceptable. As for Aces, another losing night. I am stepping back for a few days to regroup there.
Speaking of Aces Fantasy Alarm is going to be setting up a Friday night free contest where the winner each week wins swag. I believe I will be running it. We will be hosting it on Fantasy Aces so all of our DFS friends living in the state of New York can play with us. It is also a great way to play on a new site and learn all of its nuances of lineup construction for free. Maybe some advice I should follow. So I will keep you posted. Jeff will also be talking about it on the Fantasy Alarm radio show on SiriusXM so stay tuned.
Today’s pitching slate at a quick glance looks awesome, until you try to decipher who to use. It is stud day in MLB on the mounds across America. Basically all the number ones are pitching today. This makes finding a good cheap pitcher who still can put up enough fantasy points to compete with the studs tough. It also makes the essence of chasing down value a must. You are going to have to try and find a few bats today that are cheap so you can pay up for starting pitching. On a two pitcher site I would even (especially in the recently forsaken cash games) pair two studs and find some good cheap bats.
So with a full Sunday of baseball on the way and weather concerns all over the place I bring you todays Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets (Weather concerns!)
It is getting harder and harder to argue who the best pitcher in MLB is. Is it Clayton Kershaw? Or, how about Jake Arrieta? Well one thing is for certain, Noah Syndergaard deserves a slice of that conversation. Today he is home facing the Giants where he gets a positive park shift. This game also is tied for the lowest expected run total at 6.5 with the Mets being -140 favorites. The problem is the Giants are only striking out 14.7 percent of the time versus RHP and can hit as well sporting a .334 wOBA. None of this scares me with the way Thor is pitching. Over his first three starts he has yet to allow a HR. He also has a current K/9 of 12.82. To put it in perspective he has 38 strikeouts over 26 2/3 innings pitched all while sporting a 56.7 percent groundball rate. He is an absolute fantasy cash register and comes in at number one today for me.
Danger Zone
The current Giants roster is six-for-17 off of Thor with one HR and two RBI. The ugly thing is only one strikeout (Brandon Belt).
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
Imagine a DFS expert telling you to take the pitcher opposing Max Scherzer? Well you have to imagine no longer. Carlos Martinez today comes in at the top of my list and for good reason. Even through the Nationals seem really scary the truth is they do not hit RHP all that well. They are striking out 20.4 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .288 wOBA. They also are only batting .231 on the road and are 28th in wRC+ (54) in MLB over the last seven days. Meanwhile Martinez gets a positive park shift with Busch Stadium being 23rd in MLB in runs scored. Over his last 15 innings he only has nine strikeouts but at the same time has only allowed one earned run. He benefits greatly from the St. Louis bats today facing a struggling Scherzer which should aid in the win. On today’s slate with all the studs going I do not think any one in particular will be heavily owned but I can assure you that Martinez will be among the lowest owned and is a great option if you want to pair two studs together on a two pitcher site.
Danger Zone
Of course Bryce Harper is dangerous to every pitcher. Outside of that the current Nationals roster have been dominated by Martinez thus far going four-for-29 with 11 strikeouts, four RBI, and no HR. Numbers which I certainly like.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
I don’t care who he faces or where, there is never a night in DFS when Kershaw takes the mound that I do not have him in at least one lineup. Why? Because if you play more than one lineup it seems foolish to fade no matter how expensive the modern day Sandy Koufax. Even though I said yesterday do not put LHP in versus the San Diego Padres this is a bit different. The last time Kershaw faced San Diego he threw a one-hitter over seven innings while striking out nine. He also gets a positive park shift at home in Los Angeles with Dodger Stadium being 29th in MLB in runs scored and has a k/9 of 9.73 facing a team that strikes out 23.6 percent of the time versus LHP. I am not going to crazy here trying to sell him. He is Clayton Kershaw.
Danger Zone
Smooth and clear. The current Padres are 18-for-100 with 37 strikeouts, five XBH, five RBI, and no HR.
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
Keep in mind the pitchers in this section are better GPP plays on FanDuel and what I consider the best cash game plays to pair with one of the pitchers above on DraftKings and other two-pitcher sites.
Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics
How good is Rich Hill? Over his last two starts both on the road versus the Tigers and Yankees he has 18 strikeouts over 13 innings while only allowing one earned run. Today he is facing the Houston Astros at home in Oakland which is 27th in both runs scored and HR allowed in MLB so the park shift is extremely favorable. Hills current K/9 is elite at 12.81 facing a team that strikes out 23.3 percent of the time versus LHP. The Astros are also ice cold right now batting a lousy .215 over the last seven days and striking out 27.6 percent of the time. Rich Hill is putting gup elite numbers while all the experts sit back and wait for the implosion. I do not think we are going to have one and he could easily put up numbers equal to any of the top studs for cheap.
Danger Zone
The Astros can get hot and do hit LHP with a .366 wOBA when they are not striking out. We have little BVP available but the small sample shows the current Astros batting .222 (two-for-nine) off of Hill.
Vincent Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies (Weather concerns!)
The Phillies remind me a lot of the Dodgers from the mid 1960’s. All pitching and very little in the way offense. Besides the Padres and Brewers, the Phillies are the other team we DFS guys love to pick on with starters. Today Velasquez is home in Philadelphia which is 21st in runs scored in MLB facing a Cleveland Indians team striking out 24.4 percent of the time versus RHP with a .323 wOBA. The Indians are slumping as of late striking out 25.8 percent of the time over the last seven days with a low .304 wOBA. Velasquez over his first four starts spanning 25 1/3 innings has 33 strikeouts with a 1.78 ERA and even lower home ERA of 1.35. He is not the top option on the slate but certainly could more than likely stand alone in cash games on a one pitcher site.
Danger Zone
In the small sample size, the current Indians are five-for-17 with one HR (Michael Brantley), one RBI, and only two strikeouts. As long as he stays ahead in counts and does not get rattled to early he should be ok.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres
This play is better on a two-pitcher site like DraftKings or FantasyAces. You could also be sneaky and pair him with Kershaw and hope for a real low scoring 1-0 nothing game. Which it very well could be. Although the Dodgers are 29th in MLB in strikeouts versus LHP at 17.4 percent they also have a low .304 wOBA and are 22nd in wRC+ (86). To top it off they are also ice cold batting a pathetic .195 over the last seven days…believe me, I know. Pomeranz has been lights out lately with 16 strikeouts over his last 11 innings with a 2.45 ERA. He benefits from the same positive park shift that Kershaw does but will be severely lacking in run support. His price is still cheap and more than worth a shot with little in the way of viable GPP plays today.
Danger Zone
The current Dodgers are 15-for-44 with two HR, 11 RBI, and eight strikeouts. Also you have to really worry about Kike Hernandez who although looks like an extra from the movie “Fast Times at Ridgemont High” crushes LHP. I mean crushes it.
Jeff Locke, Pittsburgh Pirates
This one is a boom or bust GPP for sure. More than likely though a bust. But before we jump to that conclusion one of the things I like to do is look for a subpar SP in a good park (like PNC that is 28th in runs scored in MLB) facing a team that is pretty horrible. The Reds are striking out only 17.5 percent of the time versus LHP and have a decent .339 wOBA but do not let these numbers fool you. First off, they play in the hitter friendly “Great American Small Park” half the season. Second, they are only batting .239 on the road and are dead last in MLB over the last seven days in wRC+ at 35. Yes…35. Wow. Locke is a much better pitcher at home where he has a 3.86 ERA versus his 5.40 ERA on the road. His K/9 is below seven so we are not looking at a ton of strikeouts but we are looking at one hell of a sneaky play and I can tell you now for a $1 in a GPP I will use him.
Danger Zone
We have a lot of BVP here with the current Reds lineup batting .288 off of Locke (38-for-132) with three HR and 17 RBI. Did I mention that LHB are hitting .333 and RHB are hitting .371 off of Locke this season? Told you this was boom or bust.
Good luck today and be sure your catchers are playing as most do not if playing a day game after a night game. Saturdays and Sundays can be tough in that respect if you are new to this.
So my Excel sheet is a little better. I am still setting up the tables to simplify it. It will have the wOBA splits next week and the DraftKings pricing. I did the DK pricing in it originally but then I noticed it said that Vincent Velasquez was only $5,800 which I knew was not true so I had to scratch that for today. But the rest looks good.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | ERA | xFIP | FanDuel | FPPG |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 2 | 1 | 37 | 9.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.258 | 47.40% | 2.43 | 2.4 | $12,900 | 45 |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 5 | 0 | 38 | 7.58 | 1.18 | 0.71 | 0.186 | 43.90% | 1.66 | 3.49 | $11,000 | 49.8 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2 | 0 | 26.2 | 12.83 | 1.35 | 0 | 0.355 | 56.70% | 1.69 | 1.66 | $11,000 | 50.75 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 2 | 2 | 29.2 | 11.53 | 3.03 | 1.52 | 0.329 | 36.70% | 3.64 | 3.29 | $10,800 | 38.2 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 3 | 0 | 25 | 8.28 | 3.96 | 1.44 | 0.262 | 54.70% | 2.52 | 4.15 | $10,000 | 39.75 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 3 | 0 | 29.2 | 13.96 | 2.43 | 0.91 | 0.386 | 36.10% | 5.76 | 2.39 | $9,900 | 41.2 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2 | 1 | 31 | 8.71 | 3.48 | 1.45 | 0.293 | 43.90% | 4.35 | 3.94 | $9,900 | 32.4 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 28 | 6.43 | 2.57 | 0.64 | 0.182 | 48.10% | 1.93 | 4.26 | $9,300 | 43.5 |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 2 | 1 | 23 | 10.17 | 5.09 | 0.39 | 0.192 | 49.10% | 2.35 | 4.18 | $9,200 | 38.25 |
| John Lackey | Cubs | 3 | 1 | 25.1 | 9.59 | 2.13 | 1.07 | 0.333 | 38.20% | 4.97 | 2.93 | $9,100 | 37.75 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 1 | 2 | 24.2 | 10.22 | 1.82 | 1.46 | 0.302 | 47.80% | 4.38 | 2.98 | $9,100 | 33.5 |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 55.10% | 1.44 | 2.54 | $9,100 | 40.5 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 1 | 3 | 30.2 | 8.8 | 4.11 | 0.59 | 0.28 | 47.60% | 2.35 | 3.79 | $8,600 | 34 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 1 | 2 | 24.2 | 9.12 | 4.01 | 0.36 | 0.318 | 36.40% | 2.92 | 4.32 | $8,400 | 34.25 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 2 | 2 | 26 | 7.96 | 3.12 | 1.04 | 0.262 | 34.30% | 2.77 | 4.47 | $8,200 | 36.75 |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | 3 | 1 | 25.1 | 11.72 | 2.13 | 0.71 | 0.241 | 37.30% | 1.78 | 2.76 | $8,100 | 49 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0 | 3 | 29.1 | 7.67 | 3.38 | 1.53 | 0.276 | 41.60% | 4.6 | 4.49 | $7,700 | 23.6 |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12.81 | 3.12 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 51.70% | 2.42 | 2.68 | $7,700 | 40.8 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 0 | 1 | 27.2 | 7.81 | 1.63 | 0.65 | 0.353 | 35.60% | 3.58 | 4 | $7,500 | 24.4 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10.17 | 4.3 | 1.17 | 0.361 | 50.80% | 3.91 | 3.32 | $7,400 | 32.25 |
| Doug Fister | Astros | 1 | 3 | 22.2 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 1.99 | 0.254 | 38.20% | 5.56 | 5.13 | $6,700 | 17.75 |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 2 | 2 | 20 | 6.75 | 4.95 | 0.45 | 0.328 | 38.10% | 4.5 | 5.53 | $6,700 | 24.75 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | 2 | 2 | 22 | 12.68 | 4.91 | 0.82 | 0.306 | 45.10% | 2.86 | 3.37 | $6,600 | 40.5 |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | 0 | 2 | 19.2 | 7.32 | 6.86 | 2.75 | 0.288 | 36.50% | 8.69 | 6.01 | $6,500 | 8.333333 |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | 1 | 0 | 27.2 | 7.81 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.25 | 48.70% | 3.25 | 3.39 | $6,400 | 34.25 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 2 | 1 | 31 | 6.39 | 2.32 | 1.16 | 0.236 | 46.70% | 3.77 | 3.97 | $6,300 | 28.8 |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 1 | 2 | 19.2 | 6.86 | 6.86 | 0.92 | 0.406 | 63.90% | 5.03 | 4.86 | $5,800 | 20.75 |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | 0 | 4 | 21.1 | 3.8 | 5.06 | 1.27 | 0.347 | 46.80% | 4.64 | 5.51 | $5,600 | 14.5 |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 1 | 3 | 24.1 | 6.66 | 4.44 | 1.48 | 0.354 | 47.40% | 7.4 | 4.97 | $5,200 | 15.8 |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
I am still on SiriusXM just not three days per week. I will announce my new schedule when it is confirmed.
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