Here we are, already into the second half of the MLB season but it’s always educational to take a step back and look at what we’ve learned from the first half. If we don’t learn from our mistakes, we’ll almost assuredly be doomed to repeat them. Just because these numbers are in the past, doesn’t mean they can’t help shape our future. Even in the volatile world of daily fantasy, it’s important to know which players have been producing with accordance to their salary and which ones have been eating away at your budget only to leave your team looking up at the pay lines.
Pitching has been a fickle mistress this year. What began as a promising young group with plenty of depth to go around has emerged at the break as a position once again dominated by veterans like Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. Meanwhile, young studs like Matt Harvey, Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray have underwhelmed or are no longer available due to injury. But just who has been the best of the best on the mound in DFS over the first half? Using Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD) we can determine which of the top producers are actually returning not only points, but for returning them efficiently.
Here’s the top 25 point achieving arms on FanDuel formatted to RPVPD:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | RPV Per Dollar | |
1 | 642 | -0.087 | $8,300 | 0.099 | |
2 | 853 | 0.212 | $11,400 | 0.069 | |
3 | 642 | -0.087 | $8,600 | 0.067 | |
4 | 866 | 0.231 | $11,900 | 0.043 | |
5 | 624 | -0.113 | $8,600 | 0.040 | |
6 | 771 | 0.096 | $10,700 | 0.033 | |
7 | 650 | -0.076 | $9,100 | 0.025 | |
8 | 646 | -0.082 | $9,100 | 0.019 | |
9 | 787 | 0.119 | $11,100 | 0.017 | |
10 | 652 | -0.073 | $9,200 | 0.017 | |
11 | 622 | -0.116 | $8,800 | 0.014 | |
12 | 632 | -0.102 | $9,000 | 0.008 | |
13 | 826 | 0.174 | $11,800 | 0.005 | |
14 | 714 | 0.015 | $10,200 | 0.005 | |
15 | 719 | 0.022 | $10,300 | 0.002 | |
16 | 642 | -0.088 | $9,200 | 0.002 | |
17 | 626 | -0.110 | $9,000 | -0.002 | |
18 | 748 | 0.063 | $10,800 | -0.006 | |
19 | 626 | -0.110 | $9,100 | -0.013 | |
20 | 858 | 0.220 | $12,700 | -0.031 | |
21 | 767 | 0.090 | $11,400 | -0.036 | |
22 | 684 | -0.028 | $10,600 | -0.080 | |
23 | 685 | -0.026 | $10,700 | -0.088 | |
24 | 663 | -0.058 | $10,500 | -0.103 | |
25 | 644 | -0.085 | $10,200 | -0.104 |
If I told you Chris Tillman was the most desirable DFS pitcher in baseball over the first half of the season, you’d probably stare at me like I had three heads. The proof is in the RPVPD and if you see Tillman on a slate in the second half you may want to give him and his +10% RPVPD over the rest of the top 25 strong consideration. Scherzer and Bumgarner are not surprising to see and in the top 5. In terms of cost efficiency, they are bringing back serious production despite their lofty salaries. Consider them the cash game brothers. Justin Verlander has returned once again into the good graces of fantasy owners with a strong 2016 first half, but he’s nowhere near the biggest surprise on this list. Rick Porcello has done a complete 180 to everyone’s surprise. In fact, even the pricing algorithm has had trouble believing in him hence he’s remained cheap compared to his offerings.
The magnificent Clayton Kershaw is actually slightly below average compared to his peers on this list. It’s frankly quite difficult to perform up to that average $12.7K salary even for him. Cole Hamels’ name recognition and relative “safe” appeal make him a popular target. Unfortunately, compared to the field, you’re paying for the name brand while generic options like Tanner Roark and J.A. Happ have been viable prescriptions for your rotation openings.
Aaron Sanchez would be the most likely to slide down this list as his innings mount and his nice first half creates a salary plateau he may have trouble living up to come August. After some strange outings over the first few months, David Price should settle in for the second half and actually has the best chance to crack the top 10 as the pennant race heats up. Price has always been one to elevate his game as the games become more meaningful.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.
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