“Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.” – Fast Eddie Felsen

As I said back when we first began this article series – it’s just a matter of time before I crack this NFL DFS nut. I’m a number-cruncher by trade and while I will always throw in some look-and-feel and gut instincts, it’s the numbers that help me make those tough lineup decisions. With so much player and coach movement in the NFL, the early weeks tend to be difficult to predict and there is a tremendous amount of luck required to win that million dollar prize. If not luck, then a hearty investment in multiple lineups to help increase your chances of winning. But now here we are having just finished Week 8 and the numbers have done more than just take shape. The numbers are telling us a whole different story than they told us just seven weeks ago, and if you’re like me, you’re listening to that story and cashing in because of it.

After seven weeks of modest success in low-end cash games, I finally hit my stride this week. Not only did I cash in on all three of my 50/50’s, but I also finished 520th out of 164,075 for a $300 payout in the $4M NFL Sunday Million tournament. I was actually looking at a $750 payout at one point late in the game Monday night, but as we all witnessed, the Panthers defense tired out in the end and allowed the Colts to put up 26 points on them. But this isn’t about lamenting what could have been. This is about celebration. This is about understanding where I went right, where I went wrong and what I’ve learned in order to help me win even more in the future.

So let’s just get right to it and start with the cash games.

First off, I felt very confident in my player assessments for the week and opted to join multiple 50/50’s with the same lineup. I’m still just a small-timer here so I didn’t get crazy – just a $2, a $5 and a $10 50/50 for me. As always, I’ll show you what it looked like and then go through the thought process behind each player.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eli Manning, QB – Everything about the numbers said that the Giants/Saints game was a potential barnburner and it did not even remotely disappoint. I’ve been a little down on the Saints all year, wondering if this year was the end, so I opted to save $600 and use Eli. Sure, he didn’t put up the numbers Brees did, but who’s going to argue with 350 passing yards, six touchdowns and 38 FanDuel points?

Todd Gurley, RB – Everyone and their grandmother was on Gurley this week against a super-soft 49ers run defense. I’ve learned that it’s necessary to pay up for at least one running back, so he was an easy choice. Not to mention, with so many people likely to use him, it helps me keep pace with the rest of the field. If his ownership percentage turned out to be low, then I’m ahead of the rest because there was no way he wasn’t shredding them in the second half. Turns out I was just keeping pace as he was owned by no less than 61 percent in any of the three games I played.

Chris Johnson, RB – His price was a little higher than I would have liked for a second running back, but based on matchups some of the less-expensive running backs were more tournament darts to me than they were cash game plays. Running against the Browns had been incredibly fruitful this season and with the expectation that the Cardinals would go up early and run out the clock in the second half, I thought Johnson would be worth the slight pay-up here. Who knew the Browns would get out to such an early lead? Johnson still managed 100-plus yards, but without any end zone dancing, his point total was less than stellar.

Julio Jones, WR – It’s all about paying up for receivers, right? And who better to pay up for than Jones? The matchup with Tampa Bay was juicy and there was no doubt in my mind he was going to light it up Sunday. Thoughts confirmed.

Keenan Allen, WR – In truth, I wanted to go with Odell Beckham here, but since I didn’t want to throw any darts at running backs, I had to scale it down ever so slightly. Allen’s matchup was nice and ripe as the Ravens pass defense was looking porous and with the way Philip Rivers was slinging the rock, there was no doubt Allen was going to see some crazy targets. The injury to his kidney was upsetting to hear and I wish him nothing but the best in his recovery, but the DFS player in me was at least relieved he found his way into the end zone before he checked out of the game.

Marvin Jones, WR – Jones’ dismal showing was the big disappointment for me this week as I had really high hopes for him as a low-cost option. The matchup looked great and coming into this game, the Steelers ranked 26th in the league against teams’ WR2 and were allowing an average of almost 80 yards per game to the position. But even though they won the game, the Bengals’ offensive output was the worst it's been all season.

Crockett Gillmore, TE – He was a pivot from Ladarius Green after it was announced Antonio Gates was active for the game. He was cheap (allowed me to pay up a little more for a defense) and the Chargers ranked 30th in the league against the tight end. I had expectations of the Chargers/Ravens game being a high-scoring game and the Vegas over/under line confirmed that belief, so if Gillmore could just find the end zone once, he would easily out-earn his cost.

Robbie Gould, K – He’s been ridiculously reliable all year long and I felt that a tight division game against the Vikings would cause Jay Cutler to stall inside the red zone and give Gould ample opportunities.

St. Louis Rams, DEF – The reduction in cost from Green to Gillmore allowed me to take some of that extra money and pay up for a top defense, something I’ve learned to do with the Broncos all year in cash games. Facing a nightmarish offense like that of the 49ers meant lots of turnovers and a low points total against. The turnovers weren’t as abundant as I hoped, but they kept the score down and still gave me double-digit points.

The overall score wasn’t phenomenal, but as we’ve learned in these 50/50’s, you just need to stay in the top half to win. It just so happened that I finished in the top 20 for each of my cash games and was able to walk away a very happy winner.

And speaking of happy winners…

How about that tournament play? Lineup construction for tournaments is obviously different from that of a cash game and ownership percentages matter. For me, that means that you have to pay up for only a few elites and take a few extra chances on more than just a couple of darts. So with that, here’s a look at the lineup I threw into the $4M Sunday Tournament:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heading into this week’s tournament, I said I was going to lock down Todd Gurley, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham. The matchups for all three of them were ridiculously favorable and while they were super pricey, I had little doubt they would score big points and be the backbone of every lineup that cashed here. From there, I filled in the blanks.

I stayed with Eli here for every reason I gave in my cash game lineup. Both the matchup and the price screamed big dividends. Gillmore and Josh Lambo were a pair of darts I liked due to expectations of a high-scoring game, and the Panthers defense is always big with turnovers and a call for rain on Monday had me thinking Andrew Luck was good for a few extra mistakes. That left me with one running back and one receiver to go.

I opted to go with Justin Forsett here as I felt he could, in a high-scoring game, return strong dividends on his deflated price tag. The Chargers ranked 22nd in the league against running back pass plays and I thought he’d at least see a little ground work inside the five. But that’s what throwing a dart is all about. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss.

And speaking of darts that hit, oh baby! It’s Tavon Austin time! Well, at least Sunday was. While I figured Gurley would see the bulk of the work, the Rams were going to have to pass the ball at some point, right? Austin is easily the team’s best receiver and they love to run him every so often as well. If there was ever a defense that would crumble against him, it would be the 49ers. The numbers coming in looked favorable and based on potential game flow, it seemed like the right time for some Rams gimmick plays. He shoots, he scores!

It’s all about hitting your marks in a tournament if you want to earn any sort of money, especially in a game where multiple lineups are allowed. Am I going to hit every week? Probably not, but what this win does is pay for the next several tournaments and maybe even allow me to throw in an extra entry or two if I’m feeling particularly confident in an array of guys. What I will probably do, though, is stick to my one entry here but possibly play in a few single-entry tournaments on the cheap and hope to have a little fun there.

It’s all happening, people. My level of excitement for NFL DFS is rapidly growing, and considering the injury pounding I took in my season-long leagues this past week, this might prove to be my only fantasy enjoyment this season.