Arizona Diamondbacks

The chalk! The D-Backs have the highest expected run total in Vegas tonight, and it isn’t even that close as the team with the second highest expected total is more than a third of a run behind Arizona. It’s not hard to see why they’re the chalk as they’re at home in their hitter-friendly park against Jordan Lyles. Lyles made his first start of the season last week after spending the entirety of the season prior to that in the bullpen. Despite pitching out of then pen, his ERA sits at a ghastly 6.71 in 34 appearances.

You shouldn’t load up on a D-Backs stack in GPPs because they’ll be highly owned. But you should definitely have exposure to them in cash games; a mini stack is probably a good idea. Arizona’s best hitters against right-handers are listed as follows with their wRC+ vs. RHP in parentheses: Paul Goldschmidt (156), Jake Lamb (136), JD Martinez (125), and David Peralta (112). It’s worth noting that Goldy has missed the last four with an elbow injury. He could return to the lineup tonight, but the injury makes him a bit iffy for cash consideration. Focus on Lamb, Peralta and Martinez in cash.

Toronto Blue Jays

We’re still well within chalk territory as the Blue Jays have the third highest expected total tonight. Despite their chalkiness, their matchup is too attractive to ignore. They’ll face Detroit with Buck Farmer on the hill, and Farmer has made all of two starts since the Break in which he has combined for only 8.2 innings and has an ERA of 8.31. 

On top of the juicy matchup with Farmer is the juicy matchup against Detroit’s bullpen. That pen has been awful all season, and nothing has changed in the second half as they have the second highest ERA and third highest xFIP among all bullpens in that time frame. Our projections have Farmer in the bottom 10 in innings pitched tonight, so the Jays should get to see plenty of that bad pen.

Toronto’s best hitters against right-handers this season have been as follows with their wRC+ vs. RHP in parentheses: Josh Donaldson (140), Justin Smoak (127), Ezequiel Carrera (127) and Steve Pearce (102). Additionally, Kendrys Morales has an ISO just north of .200 vs. RHP this season, and he has homered in two of his last three games.

Toronto has had a lot of moving parts in its lineup recently, but when any of the guys mentioned above have been in the lineup, they have hit in the top five of the order. Check their lineup a bit later this afternoon, and you should be able to build a stack with the top half of their order.

Minnesota Twins

We’re finally out of straight chalk territory here as the Twins have the eighth highest expected total tonight and come in with an expected total under five runs. The Twins will be in Kansas City with Ian Kennedy on the mound for the Royals. Kennedy has struggled since the Break with a 7.03 ERA and 5.72 xFIP in 10 starts along with a HR/9 of 2.22. In addition to Kennedy being a good matchup, KC’s bullpen is also a good matchup as they have the ninth worst ERA and fifth worst xFIP since the Break.

Minnesota provides us with plenty of good options against right-handed pitching with five hitters that have at least 170 PA vs. RHP this season and a wRC+ north of 100: Max Kepler (122), Joe Mauer (120), Eddie Rosario (120), Robbie Grossman (105) and Kennys Vargas (102). Additionally, there is Brian Dozier who has a .202 ISO vs. RHP this season. And Dozier isn’t just appealing because of his pop. In the last 30 days Doze has been a top five hitter according to ESPN’s player rater, and he’s in a virtual tie for fifth with teammate Jorge Polanco. What’s crazy is that they both trail teammate Byron Buxton in that metric and by a significant margin as Buxton has been the #1 hitter on the player rater in the last 30 days. 

That’s eight different Twins for which you can state a reason that they’re an option tonight. No matter what their lineup card looks like, you should easily be able to create a contiguous Minnesota stack tonight.