Below are stacks to consider for Thursday’s MLB DFS action
The Chalk
AL East
The Yankees are the only team with a projected run total per Vegas that is above six this evening, and the Red Sox are the only other team with a projected total higher than five runs. It should be noted that the Yanks are far chalkier as Boston’s projected total is only slightly above five runs, so the Yanks projected total is near a full run higher.
The Yankees will host the Tigers who will send left-hander Francisco Liriano to the mound. Liriano is struggling mightily lately with a 5.56 xFIP over the last 30 days, which is easily the worst mark of any of tonight’s probable starters. To illustrate the point further, Liriano has walked more batters than he has struck out in that stretch.
Liriano has been passable against lefties this season, but he has the worst K-BB% against right-handed hitters among tonight’s probables. Giancarlo Stanton is easily New York’s best active right-handed hitter against left-handed pitching this season with a 183 wRC+ against them. Gleyber Torres , Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks have also been above average with the platoon advantage against lefties. Those four guys will be in the top five in the order tonight, making it east to stack Yanks. Shane Robinson and Kyle Higashioka are cheaper righty options toward the bottom of the order.
Boston will be on the road facing right-hander Lucas Giolito and the White Sox. Giolito has pitched better of late than his season-long numbers would lead you to believe was possible. That said, he’s a great matchup for lefties as he has the worst K-BB% against lefties among tonight’s probables. Andrew Benintendi is by far Boston’s best leftie against right-handed pitching, and the only other lefty Sock in the lineup who has been above average vs. RHP this season is nine-hole hitter Jackie Bradley Jr. Right-handers Mookie Betts and J.D. Martínez are platoon-proof with great numbers against same-handed pitching, which means 9-1-2-3 for Boston is a good stack.
Not the Chalk
ARI-LAD Game Stack
The D’Backs-Dodgers game only has an over/under of eight runs, and the favored Dodgers only have the seventh highest projected run total, so this game certainly is not the chalk. However, the game has some upside thanks to the pair of lefty starting pitchers in the game, Rich Hill and Robbie Ray . Of tonight’s probable starters, Ray and Hill have the second and fourth highest xFIPs over the last 30 days. Both guys also lean toward the fly ball end of the spectrum with GB/FB ratios under 1.00, which gives this game some home run potential.
Ray is deathly good against lefties, so you’ll want to lean heavily on LA right-handed hitters. LA has three righties who are well above average against left-handed pitching this season, Justin Turner , Manny Machado and Matt Kemp , and those three will hit 2-3-4 in the LA order tonight.
As for D’Backs, Hill has some reverse splits this season, so there is no need to focus purely on right-handers who will have the platoon advantage. Paul Goldschmidt and Ketel Marte have by far been Arizona’s best hitters against lefties this season. Steven Souza Jr. , Daniel Descalso and Nick Ahmed have all been safely above average against lefties as well.