The Chalk

Houston Astros

As of this writing, the Astros are the only team with an implied run total over five runs in Vegas today. They don’t have the greatest matchup against Sean Manaea who has a 1.23 ERA in five starts this season, but Manaea’s 3.63 xFIP indicates he hasn’t turned into a Cy Young contender or anything. The Astros have an entire lineup worth of guys who have been above average against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, so you’ll want exposure to them in cash games for sure.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have the third highest implied total today at home against the Tigers who will send Mike Fiers to the mound. Fiers has a 4.70 xFIP in three starts this season, and he’s pitching to contact a lot with fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings. He’s also getting a negative park shift on the road in Baltimore.

The O’s have exactly four hitters who have been above average against right-handed pitching the last two seasons: Trey Mancini , Manny Machado , Adam Jones and Chance Sisco . Those four have hit one through four in the O’s order in two of their last three games. If those four hit at the top of the order again, they’re a nice stack option. Sisco is the most likely of the four to be down the order, but even if he is, the other three are still stackable.

Minnesota Twins

Coming in with the fourth highest implied run total against the Twins who are hosting the Reds and Luis Castillo tonight. Castillo has a 6.51 ERA in five starts this season, but in his defense, he has a respectable 4.03 xFIP with more than 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Castillo’s problem has been control as his walk rate sits at 9.2 percent.

The main reason the Twins are so stackable tonight is that they have seven hitters who have been above average against right-handed pitching since the start of last season: Eddie Rosario , Joe Mauer , Max Kepler , Logan Morrison , Miguel Sano , Brian Dozier , and Eduardo Escobar . Almost no matter what Minnesota’s lineup looks like, you should be able to find a streamlined stack containing some of those guys.

 

Not the Chalk

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland has the second highest implied run total as of this writing, so normally they would be listed with the chalk. However, there’s a fifty percent chance of rain in Cleveland at game time, so there’s the possibility that weather scares some people off the Indians tonight. If the weather ends up not being much of a concern, closer to lock, you can just think of Cleveland as another chalk option. But if weather is still and issue nearer 7:00 eastern, you might end up getting low ownership on a team in a good spot.

Cleveland will host Seattle tonight with Erasmo Ramírez going for the M’s. Erasmo has only made one start this season and allowed five runs in 4.2 innings. Last year he finished with a 4.39 ERA and 4.28 xFIP in 131.1 innings with 18 relief appearances. Active Indians have combined for a .371 wOBA against Ramirez in 78 total PA. Left-handers Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis have done the most damage with five extra-base hits between them in 21 PA. They’re a good pair to build a Cleveland stack around.

Detroit Tigers

The O’s were mentioned as a chalk option above, and that game actually has some game stack potential with the Tigers being another solid stack option. Among today’s probable starters, Chris Tillman has the second highest wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters and highest wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters since the start of last season. His struggles against hitters from both sides of the plate makes it easier to build a stack against him. Both Miguel Cabrera and Leonys Martín have solid career numbers against Tillman, Jeimer Candelario and Nick Castellanos have been Detroit’s best hitters against right-handed pitching dating back to last season. That quartet has hit one through four in Detroit’s lineup more than once this season and would make for a nice stack if they do so tonight.

Chicago White Sox

One other contrarian option to consider is Chicago as the White Sox have hit Danny Duffy very well in the past. Collectively, active White Sox have a .411 wOBA against Duffy in a combined 157 PA. Duffy has not been sharp this season with a 5.26 ERA and 4.67 xFIP in five starts. He’s also walking more than 4.5 batters per nine innings. José Abreu , Yolmer Sánchez and Tim Anderson have seen the most of Duffy and all have wOBAs over .390 against him. Adam Engel and Matt Davidson haven’t seen as much of Duffy but have five extra-base hits between them against him in only 15 combined PA.