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Guess who’s back? If you guessed Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Don Drysdale, or Stan Musial I am sad to say you are dead wrong. No pun intended. It’s me, the NBA Position Coach Article guy Jerry Colvin.
For those of you who do not know me for lack of playing DFS NBA, I am a baseball guy first and a basketball guy second. The thing I like doing best? Going over pitchers. This is actually my favorite Fantasy Alarm article to write and from here on out I will be the “weekend guy."
A lot has changed this MLB season for us DFS players. We have lost the ability to play our friends in the wonderful state of New York and for some reason FanDuel decided to change their scoring system. The worst of it, 12 points for the Win.
I really believe FanDuel has made a mistake with the new scoring system. Why? Well, the win is such a random stat. You will hear fantasy analyst after fantasy analyst tell you each day that you cannot chase a win. When 12 points is assigned to it I beg to disagree. Here is how this messes you up as a DFS player. Last night, for instance, I completely avoided both Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner outside of GPP play because I felt like the win was a coin flip. Instead, I took Carlos Martinez in my 50/50s facing the Reds at home. Why? Simple, you had a good pitcher in a good ballpark, with a decent bullpen, facing a bad team. So remember on FanDuel that the 12 points your competitors get at the close of their games can knock you out of the money quick, very quick. So the days of not “chasing” the win are over on FanDuel.
So my Dodgers are rolling, a cat that is still a creep (for those of you who know me), and health that is 95.9 percent and getting closer to 100, I bring you today's Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
One of the biggest misconceptions the average fan has is that Wrigley Field is a hitter’s park. The reality is it’s neutral, 14th in MLB in 2015 to be exact. Today the wind is blowing in slightly at 6 mph and Jake Arrieta is taking the mound versus the Colorado Rockies. The last time Arrieta saw the big bats of Colorado at home was in 2014 where he allowed one run over seven innings while striking out seven. In 2015 the Rockies were 12th in MLB in strikeouts versus RHP doing so at a rate of 20.8 percent and also had a .281 wOBA on the road which was the lowest in MLB. So far in 2016 the Rockies are only striking out 16.2-percent versus RHP but I expect that to change today facing Arrieta who has struck out 12 over his last 14 innings with a low 1.93 ERA. He is the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel and slightly cheaper than David Price on DraftKings and gets my call today as the top cash game option and top option overall.
Danger Zone
Carlos Gonzalez is two-for-six lifetime with a HR and one strikeout versus Arrieta.
Nolan Arenado is two-for-six lifetime with two-doubles and three RBI and is yet to K versus Arrieta.
Keep in mind Arrieta only allowed one run at home to Colorado last season.
Although he does not look as good on paper with his 0-2 record and 4.63 ERA Matt Harvey still deserves respect and certainly consideration if you are playing on the early or afternoon slates. I also think people are going to be turned off of him today with his decreased strikeout rate having only set down five now in 11.2 innings. So what is wrong with Harvey? I am going to chalk up to still getting warmed up. Today, Harvey is at Progressive Field which was 18th in MLB in HR allowed in 2015 but second in runs-scored. So the park shift is less than favorable I will admit. The thing is I find it hard to believe a player like Harvey who had a K/9 close to nine in 2015 just loses it. The Indians are striking out 22.6 percent over 146 plate appearances so far this season and if you are playing on a 4 pm slate Harvey is my top option of the cash games plays. PS, he is only $8700 on DraftKings…wow.
Danger Zone
The Cleveland Indians currently have a wOBA of .372 versus RHP.
Much like Harvey, even though his K/9 is still nine Max Scherzer’s 4.15 ERA may scare some people off today or the fact the Atlanta Braves on March 11th tuned him up a bit as well when he allowed four earned runs over six innings could to. The thing is in DFS strikeouts equal points. Tonight Scherzer is facing a team with what seems to have a great pitching staff but terrible hitting in the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies may have the cutest mascot but they are striking out 21.5 percent of the time versus RHP and have a pathetic .288 wOBA to match it. Scherzer does not get a favorable park shift today by the numbers but I believe this benefits the Nationals bats much, much more than the Phillies bats today as the Nationals hitters get to face Aaron Nola who although looks impressive still has a 5.14 ERA over his first seven innings at home. All factors point to Scherzer getting the win and I am all in him tonight.
Danger Zone
Odubel Herrera is 4-for-13 lifetime with a double, triple, and one RBI versus Scherzer.
I do not find that particularly dangerous myself.
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
Either of the two pitchers below are great complimentary pieces to play on a two-pitcher site in conjunction with the cash game plays above.
Shelby MillerI know what you are thinking, Shelby Miller? Why you would you recommend playing a pitcher with an 8.18 ERA who looks lost. Two answers, The Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies in Arizona. That is the two opponents he faced who both have killer LHB in one of the best hitter’s parks in MLB in Chase Field (8th in MLB in runs-scored in 2015). Today he gets a favorable park shift in San Diego for the first time this season facing a Padres team who is currently striking out 28.3-percent of the time versus RHP with a .238 wOBA. If it gets any lower the hot dog guy could have a chance at getting in some at-bats. Miller has eight strikeouts this season over eleven innings and gets my call as the top option to pair today with a top-tier SP.
Danger Zone
Matt Kemp is two-for-six lifetime with a double off of Miller.
Really, that is all.
Now this one is a little riskier in my opinion than Miller but carries much more upside. Marco Estrada in his 2016 Debut versus the very same Red Sox in the hitter friendly park of Toronto had eight strikeouts over seven innings while allowing zero earned runs. Today he is in Fenway park which was third in runs scored in MLB in 2015 but 19th in MLB in homeruns allowed. Estrada has a shaky history versus the Red Sox as his ERA was 6.10 in 2015 but was only 1.59 at Fenway Park. He is one of them players where it comes down to how much you believe in him. He looked good in his last outing and I am the kind of DFS player who believes you ride the hot hand and he certainly looks to have it. The signals are mixed here numbers wise and this usually scares the timid players off in cash games. He has strikeout upside facing a team striking out 21.4-percent of the time on the young season versus RHP and I believe that number will increase today. He is also a great bargain on DraftKings.
Danger Zone
The Boston Red Sox have a .348 wOBA versus RHP.
David Ortiz is three-for-12 with two homeruns lifetime off of Estrada.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
For my first day of the Pitching Coach article I am sad to say I am not finding a terrible lot to choose from here. My go to guy for value last season who has looked terrible lately Taylor Jungmann is on the road and Aaron Nola although a great GPP play feels like he is in for a baptism of fire today.
I really feel like I should punch myself in the face for even taking a look at Nolasco but the fact remains he looks pretty good and the Angels look pretty bad. The Twins finally got a win and a streak always has to start with one win right? Nolasco had five strikeouts over seven innings while only allowing one run versus a team that is notorious for not striking out and wearing out pitchers in the Kansas City Royals. Today he gets the struggling Angels who currently have a .270 wOBA versus RHP and are striking out 15.9 percent of the time over 201 plate appearances. He is not pretty but does have some K upside even facing a team that is not striking out a lot and he is dirt cheap. In a GPP if you can get 30 fantasy points on FanDuel and 16 on DraftKings it could go a long way to load up on some big bats. Or, he gets lit up and you send me hateful emails. For real folks, GPP only.
Danger Zone
Albert Pujols is 13-for-25 with three home runs lifetime off of Nolasco.
Pujols is the most notable but several players have decent batting averages versus Nolasco.
Well that is it for today. Good luck and remember pitching is the vital and often most reliable component in lineup construction for DFS purposes and you should always try to spend up for the safer options if you can.
| Name | Team | W | L | ERA | G | IP | H | SO | GB% | FB% | K/9 | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | FanDuel | Draft Kings |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 2 | 0 | 1.93 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 61.50% | 15.40% | 7.7 | 1.29 | 0.196 | 0.79 | 0.216 | $11,900 | $10,300 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 1 | 0 | 4.15 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 48.40% | 38.70% | 9.0 | 1.38 | 0.196 | 1.08 | 0.226 | $11,500 | $13,100 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 0 | 2 | 4.63 | 2 | 11.2 | 14 | 5 | 56.40% | 23.10% | 3.86 | 0.77 | 0.311 | 1.54 | 0.333 | $10,000 | $8,700 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25.00% | 50.00% | 10.3 | 0 | 0.200 | 1.00 | 0.294 | $8,700 | $6,100 |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 8.18 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 47.40% | 42.10% | 6.6 | 4.09 | 0.319 | 1.64 | 0.294 | $7,400 | $8,100 |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | 0 | 0 | 1.29 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 57.90% | 36.80% | 6.4 | 1.29 | 0.125 | 0.43 | 0.111 | $6,000 | $6,300 |
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
I am so glad to be writing about baseball again.
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