DFS MLB Hitting Coach: April 24

Published: Apr 24, 2016

Take a minute to scroll through Sunday’s probable starting pitchers and one thing becomes abundantly clear: There are a ton of good hitting matchups. Unlike Saturday, where there were only a couple of juicy matchups and a lot of mediocre ones, Sunday is chock full of matchups I would love to exploit. Narrowing down which hitters to target was a bit of a challenge, but I will say if you can find room in your budget for an extra stud or two, you will probably be rewarded.

CATCHER

					Prob Pit		2015			2016
Player	Tm	Bat	P	Opp	Pitcher	Throws	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	FD	DK	Aces
Geovany Soto	LAA	R	C	SEA	Wade Miley	L	0.22	0.3	0.41	0.32	0.38	0.47	0.38	2300	2700	3750
Yasmani Grandal	LA	B	C	COL	Jordan Lyles	R	0.23	0.35	0.4	0.38	0.54	0.57	0.5	3600	4000	4850
Welington Castillo	ARI	R	C	PIT	Francisco Liriano	L	0.17	0.24	0.36	0.23	0.29	0.54	0.35	3200	3000	4400

Geovany Soto had a .780 OPS against lefties last season, while right-handed batters had a .759 OPS against Wade Miley in 2015.

Yasmani Grandal is batting .429 over the last week, and he may be one of the few starting catchers to play Sunday after A.J. Ellis started Saturday.

Welington Castillo has four home runs over his last four games, and he could get another Sunday against the struggling Francisco Liriano.

FIRST BASE

					Prob Pit		2015			2016
Player	Tm	Bat	P	Opp	Pitcher	Throws	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	FD	DK	Aces
Adrian Gonzalez	LA	L	1B	COL	Jordan Lyles	R	0.28	0.35	0.48	0.35	0.41	0.54	0.42	4400	5400	5400
Lucas Duda	NYM	L	1B	ATL	Aaron Blair	R	0.24	0.35	0.49	0.25	0.27	0.44	0.33	3400	3900	4800
Mark Reynolds	COL	R	1B	LA	Alex Wood	L	0.23	0.32	0.4	0.28	0.36	0.45	0.36	3400	3900	4750
Justin Bour	MIA	L	1B	SF	Matt Cain	R	0.26	0.32	0.48	0.29	0.35	0.42	0.3	2500	2900	4100

You could make an argument for Paul Goldschmidt or Anthony Rizzo, but they have combined for 28 hits this season, while Adrian Gonzalez has 25 all by himself. Jordan Lyles has allowed five earned runs in each of his home starts this season, and Gonzalez isn’t even the most expensive first baseman on FanDuel or FantasyAces.

If you are looking for a mid-priced first baseman, you have your choice of underperforming studs like Prince Fielder and Jose Abreu, solid guys with nice matchups like Lucas Duda or Brandon Belt or the surprisingly good Mark Reynolds at home against a lefty at Coors Field. I wouldn’t argue with any of those choices, and for that reason I’m probably filling my first base position last, but of that group, I like Reynolds the best.

If you want to go cheap, you could do far worse than Justin Bour. He is off to a solid start this season, and Matt Cain decidedly is not.

SECOND BASE

					Prob Pit		2015			2016
Player	Tm	Bat	P	Opp	Pitcher	Throws	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	FD	DK	Aces
Chase Utley	LA	L	2B	COL	Jordan Lyles	R	0.22	0.28	0.33	0.32	0.38	0.46	0.35	3600	4300	5000
Neil Walker	NYM	B	2B	ATL	Aaron Blair	R	0.27	0.33	0.43	0.29	0.3	0.61	0.38	3200	3700	4800
Daniel Murphy	WSH	L	2B	MIN	Tyler Duffey	R	0.28	0.32	0.45	0.41	0.48	0.68	0.49	3600	4400	4900

Chase Utley is 9-for-27 over his current six-game hitting streak, and he is 4-for-9 in his career against Jordan Lyles.

As I wrote yesterday, I’m riding Neil Walker’s hot streak while it lasts, and he hit his sixth home run in eight games Saturday.

As I pointed out yesterday before he got the day off, Daniel Murphy has a hit in 14 of his 16 games this season, and he is an even better play Sunday against Tyler Duffey.

THIRD BASE

					Prob Pit		2015			2016
Player	Tm	Bat	P	Opp	Pitcher	Throws	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	FD	DK	Aces
Brandon Drury	ARI	R	3B	PIT	Francisco Liriano	L	0.21	0.25	0.38	0.28	0.3	0.45	0.32	2300	2500	3300
Josh Donaldson	TOR	R	3B	OAK	Eric Surkamp	L	0.3	0.37	0.57	0.31	0.39	0.68	0.42	5100	5300	5800
Todd Frazier	CWS	R	3B	TEX	Derek Holland	L	0.26	0.31	0.5	0.2	0.26	0.44	0.3	3800	4100	5000
Maikel Franco	PHI	R	3B	MIL	Wily Peralta	R	0.28	0.34	0.5	0.3	0.34	0.55	0.36	3100	4000	4650

I don’t know that I am paying up at third base, but if you can find the money, I slightly prefer Josh Donaldson to Nolan Arenado. Donaldson had a better OPS at home against lefties than Arenado last season, and he is facing the weaker pitcher Sunday.

For a cheaper third baseman at home against a weak lefty, Todd Frazier could be just as good as Donaldson. Frazier had a .908 OPS against lefties last season.

Maikel Franco is even cheaper than Frazier, at least on FantasyAces and FanDuel, but Franco is 6-for-9 with three home runs over his last two games. Wily Peralta has allowed four home runs in 18 1/3 innings this season, and Franco has an excellent chance of going deep again Sunday.

Brandon Drury is 6-for-15 over his last four starts, and he will likely start and bat second again against lefty Francisco Liriano.

Anthony Rendon?

SHORTSTOP

					Prob Pit		2015			2016
Player	Tm	Bat	P	Opp	Pitcher	Throws	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	FD	DK	Aces
Andrelton Simmons	LAA	R	SS	SEA	Wade Miley	L	0	0.07	0	0.23	0.24	0.29	0.25	2200	2600	3900
Corey Seager	LA	L	SS	COL	Jordan Lyles	R	0.34	0.43	0.56	0.25	0.3	0.39	0.3	4300	3200	5300
Asdrubal Cabrera	NYM	B	SS	ATL	Aaron Blair	R	0.27	0.32	0.43	0.32	0.38	0.44	0.34	2800	3200	4350

Andrelton Simmons has been batting second against lefties, and that has value against Wade Miley with Mike Trout batting third.

Corey Seager will likely bat second at Coors Field against Jordan Lyles, and he is pretty cheap on FantasyAces.

Asdrubal Cabrera will likely move up one spot in the batting order with Yoenis Cespedes out, and that is an added bonus considering Cabrera is batting .360 over the last seven days.

OUTFIELD

					Prob Pit		2015			2016
Player	Tm	Bat	P	Opp	Pitcher	Throws	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	FD	DK	Aces
Curtis Granderson	NYM	L	RF	ATL	Aaron Blair	R	0.26	0.36	0.46	0.22	0.33	0.49	0.35	3700	4300	4500
Mike Trout	LAA	R	CF	SEA	Wade Miley	L	0.3	0.4	0.59	0.3	0.41	0.51	0.36	4700	5100	5350
Bryce Harper	WSH	L	RF	MIN	Tyler Duffey	R	0.33	0.46	0.65	0.31	0.4	0.8	0.48	5800	5400	6150
Michael Conforto	NYM	L	LF	ATL	Aaron Blair	R	0.27	0.34	0.51	0.29	0.41	0.51	0.38	3300	3200	4600
Yasmany Tomas	ARI	R	RF	PIT	Francisco Liriano	L	0.27	0.31	0.4	0.28	0.33	0.49	0.36	3400	3300	4650
Jorge Soler	CHI	R	RF	CIN	Alfredo Simon	R	0.26	0.32	0.4	0.19	0.29	0.34	0.29	2600	3900	4350
Leonys Martin	SEA	L	CF	LAA	Matt Shoemaker	R	0.22	0.26	0.31	0.19	0.24	0.35	0.28	2500	2800	3650
Ezequiel Carrera	TOR	L	CF	OAK	Eric Surkamp	L	0.27	0.32	0.37	0.32	0.32	0.41	0.18	2800	3100	4100

Mike Trout is heating up, going 8-for-13 with two home runs and four RBI in his last four games. There may never be a better time to use him than against Wade Miley and his 8.04 ERA.

You could have a very interesting argument over whether Trout or Bryce Harper is the better play Saturday, but I obviously like both. Harper had a 1.160 OPS against righties last season, and Tyler Duffey is a weak righty.

Curtis Granderson has been quietly heating up himself, going 8-for-18 with three home runs over his last four games. Michael Conforto hasn’t been quite as hot, but he is batting .318 over the last week and he is far cheaper than Granderson on DraftKings.

Yasmany Tomas is currently on a nine-game hitting streak, and he has a .367 wOBA against lefties in his brief career.

I would love to stack the Cubs against Alfredo Simon, but most of Chicago’s hitters are very expensive, and I just cannot pay the price for most of those guys with so many strong hitting options Sunday. The one exception is Jorge Soler, who is quite cheap on FanDuel and FantasyAces. If Soler starts, he is probably the best option from the Cubs Sunday.

Leonys Martin is 6-for-13 against Matt Shoemaker, and while I’m not worried about Martin’s slow start, it has served to keep his price down.

Ezequiel Carrera is batting leadoff in a really good lineup against a very poor starting pitcher, and that is a recipe for success.

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