Daily Trends: June 5, 2015

 

Mark Buehrle threw a complete game shutout against the Nationals Wednesday. It only took him 93 pitches and 21 of the 23 batted balls were grounders in the effort. That’s back-to-back complete games and 4-straight outings of at least 7.1 innings for Mark which has got to excite some. It really shouldn’t. The most durable pitcher of our times, he’s tossed 200-innings in 14-straight seasons, MB has a pathetic 3.98 K/9 ratio, his 1.31 WHIP is slightly worse than league average, and his velocity just keeps going down (this is a 5th straight year it’s down, and currently a career worst 83.2 mph). An AL-only option, but nothing more than a spot starter in mixed leagues. 
 

Sonny Gray is the best pitcher in the American League. Well, he might be. Check out the numbers. Through 12 starts he’s 7-2 with a 1.65 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.01 K/9 and 55.1 percent ground ball rate. Since the start of last season the numbers simply sparkle for the 25 year old: 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.60 K/9, 2.71 K/BB with a 56 percent ground ball rate. He’s an SP1 until further notice. 

Nate Karns has made 11 starts this season and eight times he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs which has led to a 3.63 ERA. Too bad he’s gotten little support and only won three games. Well, that’s not totally fair. He’s not exactly going deep in games. In 11 starts he’s lasted seven innings twice and six innings just four times. That 3.92 BB/9 rate makes me nervous as does that .227 BABIP. He’s nothing more than a depth option in mixed leagues. 

John Lackey is still getting it done. The 36 year old is rocking a 2.93 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for the Cardinals and pretty much looks like the same guy we’ve seen for a decade plus. A few small notes of concerns. (1) After a 7.5 K/9 mark the last two years he’s currently at 6.62. (2) His 2.29 BB/9 rate would be a three year high. His 0.51 HR/9 marks is coming on the heels of 3-stright seasons with marks that would double that (the lowest was 1.09 last year). No reason to think a collapse is coming, but the ratios are likely going up a bit.

Jon Lester, though the first third of his Cubs career, has been disappointing. He’s only 4-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Those are simply average numbers. Period. The K/9 rate of 8.65 is solid, ditto the 2.39 walk rate per nine that would be the second best mark of his career, but as I warned prior to the start of the year, the expectations were simply too high with Lester. I do like the 47.5 percent ground ball rate which would be a 3-year best, and it’s likely his .325 BABIP regresses a bit (.302 career). Better days are ahead, but not elite stuff. 

Nick Martinez recorded 10 outs against the White Sox in his last outing while allowing seven runs. He had allowed five runs his previous three outings. More down times are ahead. Even with the beating he still owns a 2.89 ERA. It’s not earned. His 5.51 K/9 is terrible, his 1.25 GB/FB and 2.89 BB/9 rates are only slightly better than average while his WHIP is already below the league level at 1.36. Martinez simply doesn’t have the stuff to keep up the ERA success. It’s quite possible his season long ERA ends up in the 4’s, despite the solid start. 

Trevor May has a 4.45 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 10 starts for the Twins. The 7.94 K/9 mark and 1.43 BB/9 rate lead to an impressive 5.56 K/BB ratio. That’s good stuff. May also tossed seven shutout innings at Fenway Wednesday for the third quality start in his last four outings. He’s walked one batter in that time. His ERA should be a run lower based on his efforts. Expect some improvement in the ERA moving forward, and May certainly has the look of a guy who is making 30 starts for the Twins this season. He’s the last guy you want in a mixed league on your staff, not someone to expect a strong surge from.  

Lance McCullers has a 1.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through four starts for the Astros. Toss in his 10.88 K/9 ratio and 2.25 BB/9 mark and we’ve got a rookie who is balling. Wednesday against the Orioles he allowed one run while striking out 11 batters in nine innings. Do you sell? I think you should. Lance still only has two pitches – he’s throwing his fastball 55 percent of the time and his curveball 36 percent of the time – and not many starting pitchers dominate with just two pitches. There’s also this. Over 256.2 minor league innings his BB/9 rate is 4.5, a mark he has literally cut in half with the Astros. He simply cannot keep that up. 

Jimmy Nelson is having a very uneven season. In total you see a nice 8.02 K/9 rate and 1.22 WHIP, but he’s also in possession of a 4.41 ERA and 3.34 BB/9 rate. Still suggesting patience with him. He’s got a big arm, no doubt, and his 50 percent ground ball ratio speaks to the high probability that his 1.07 HR/9 rate regresses moving forward (he has a high 14 percent HR/F ratio). Hold/buy. 

Rick Porcello through 11 Red Sox starts: 4-5, 5.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Why is anyone surprised? Not really sure. The guy’s an innings eater. He doesn’t beat himself with walks, though his 2.31 BB/9 ratio would be 6-year high), but this is who Porcello is. His 1.27 WHIP would be the second best of his career. The 7.07 K/9 would be the second best mark of his career. That’s good. However, the bad is a loss of the grounder. A career 51.6 percent ground ball rate has dipped all the way to 43.1 percent, and as a result his HR/9 mark has soared to 1.41 (career 0.96). Until he starts getting the ball down success will be intermittent. 

Anibal Sanchez has a 5.69 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Terrible. Still, positives exist. (1) He has a 8.35 K/9 ratio. (2) His walk rate, though a four year high, is still solid at 2.78 per nine. (3) Sanchez allowed 13 homers the last two years (51 outings). How has he allowed 13 this season in 12 starts? Especially odd since after 5-striaght years with a 44 percent fly ball ratio the mark is a career best 37 percent. Blame the obnoxious 14.8 percent HR/F ratio (career 10.8 percent). I’m still buying/holding. 

Taijuan Walker is 2-6 with a 5.80 ERA as he’s failed – m i s e r a b l y – to live up to expectations. Still, the guy has a huge arm and a bright future. He’s also look pretty solid his last two starts. Walker has lasted eight outings the last two games allowing a total of three runs. He’s only walked one batter in the 16 innings as well. He’s been so bad you can potentially find him on waivers in tons of leagues. The arm is still elite and he makes for a better shot in the dark than guys like Nick Martinez and Mark Buehrle.