DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters – Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
- A special note. I’m taking a break. Not from life, just from work. I think they call it a vacation? Such a foreign thing for me. My bosses tell me that it’s healthy not to work every day all year long. Who knew? I’ll be out of the office from July 10th to the 20th sipping on Mai Tai’s in Hawaii. Hey, when the Oracle takes a vacation he usually lays on a beach, boozes, and looks at pretty ladies. There are worse ways to spend your time off, no?
ALEX GORDON OUT
For my thoughts check out the Big 3 from July 9, 2015.
YORDANO VENTURA RETURNS
Yordano Ventura returns from yet another setback, this one to his hand, to take the bump for the Royals Thursday (Ventura worked five innings allowing three runs and three walks to the Rays). Will he be able to stay healthy? No one knows at this point since the guys a physical mess. There, I said it.
After throwing his fastball 96.5 mph the last two years the mark is down this season to 94.3 according to PITCHf/x. At the same time his K-rate is only down half a batter at 7.22 per nine. In fact, the overall numbers suggest that he’s not pitching as bad as most people would think. The data.
Ventura is walking 2.81 batters per nine. His career mark is 3.25.
Ventura is allowing a 19.8 percent line drive rate. His career mark is 20.5.
Ventura has a 52.3 percent ground ball rate. His career mark is 48.9.
Ventura has a .298 BABIP. His career mark is .287.
Ventura has a 1.26 WHIP. His career mark is 1.28.
His record (3-6) and ERA (4.68) blow chunks, but the facts of the matter are clear – he’s pitching as well or better, in a large number of categories, as we’ve seen from him to this point. It won’t matter if Yordano can’t stay healthy, and there’s no way around that, but there’s still a big time arm here to add on the cheap if you can.
ZIEGLER DOING IT
I’m a bit surprised to report that Brad Ziegler is killing it in the 9th inning for the D’backs. The 35 year old has a career best 14 saves (in 16 chances), and he’s
pitching as well as he ever has – maybe.
Ziegler has a 1.18 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. His career marks are 2.45 and 1.22.
Ziegler has a 2.37 BB/9 rate. That’s a career best (3.14 career).
Ziegler has an 8-year low in his K/9 rate at 4.97, a full batter below normal. Part of the reason for that might be that his average fastball is 83.8 mph (career 85.2).
Huh is right.
I think it’s safe to say that when a guy has a BABIP that is – quite literally - .100 points below normal that we can suggest he’s been a bit lucky, fair? Ziegler has a career mark of .278 and this year the rate is .178. It’s never been lower than .258. Some regression is coming. Look at that line drive rate. His career mark is 17.5 percent and it’s been at least 16.5 percent in all his previous seven seasons. This year it’s at 14.0 percent.
He doesn’t miss bats which makes me nervous. It’s hard to for me to completely trust a guy who ratchets down the walk rate like this without seeing it happen for more than 38 innings. Gotta think batters will start squaring him up more as we move forward.
Two final notes that are one. Compare his career SIERA and xFIP to this year. Note there ain’t much difference.
2015: 2.88 SIERA, 3.39 xFIP
Career: 3.15 SIERA, 3.52 xFIP
KOEHLER DOING IT
On May 17thTom Koehler was moved to the bullpen. Two days later he was asked to start again after Jarred Cosart was placed on the DL by the Marlins. Then Henderson Alvarez hit the DL. Lo and behold, Koehler keeps starting for the Marlins and, actually, pitching well. From the 19th of May forward Koehler has made nine starts going 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP for the Marlins. He’s also allowed one or zero earned runs in six of those nine starts. Yowzahs is right. His walk rate per nine in that time is about league average at 2.89, ditto his HR/9 rate (0.96), but at least he’s generating a lot of ground balls (49.7 percent). He had better keep doing that because he’s just not missing bats with a 5.79 K/9 mark. His outlook means he’s still a streaming type of option in mixed leagues, but he’s obviously in a nice streak of success right now. There’s also this; the guy loves home cooking. In eight outings at home he has a 1.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, so it’s pretty obvious when you want to start him.
BAUER BALLING?
The last two times Trevor Bauer has taken the hill he’s allowed two runs in each outing. Solid. Of course, as is often the case with Bauer, there were issues as well given that the previous two outings he allowed 11 earned runs. Five starts ago? How about a seven inning shutout. That’s Bauer in a nut shell. Three of his last five outings he’s given up a total of four runs. The other two outings – 11 runs. Dude is hit or miss. Just the way it is.
Overall Bauer has been solid. He’s 8-5 on the year with an easy on the eyes 8.72 K/9 mark. The issue for Bauer has been the walk. Last year he walked 3.53 batters per nine and this season the mark is slightly higher at 3.67. It’s just not where successful pitchers want to reside. Still, the guy is so hard to square up that his WHIP is 1.22 as batters have a hard time producing base hits. He can also be a bit homer prone with a 45 percent fly ball rate (career 42 percent) but to this point his 9.5 career HR/F ratio seems to suggest that batters won’t be lifting balls out of the yard at a crazy pace. Expect more of the same from Bauer in the second half – alternating frustrating efforts with impressive ones.
JASO WORTH A LOOK?
John Jaso missed like fourteen years of games. OK, it only seemed liked that. Back after missing months with a wrist issue, Jaso is ready to rock for the Rays. Through 11 plate appearances he’s produces six hits and three walks… that means he’s sporting a .818 OBP. And that’s really Jaso’s game – getting on base. He has 33 homers in his career, with a high of 10 in a season, so he’s not going to lift a bunch of balls into the seats. He’s also not a huge average guy with a career mark of .262, but he does get on base. He’s also in line to see a lot of playing time with the Rays at DH. That’s what makes him noteworthy --- playing time with the eligibility at catcher. A solid second catcher option in mixed leagues given the dregs of humanity that some of us are being forced to run out there on a daily basis.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
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