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BETTER THAN YOU THINK?

Some pitchers who have a higher ERA than they should follow.

Clayton Kershaw (3.08 ERA, 2.12 xFIP)

Duh. Should have made the All-Star team. His 11.61 K/9 is two full batters above his career rate, he has the second best K/BB ratio he’s ever had at 5.44, and his WHIP is 1.04. Hell, take away his first two starts and his season long ERA would be 2.74, pretty much right in line with his 2.53 career mark.

Michael Pineda (3.79 ERA, 2.62 xFIP)

Huge gap in the ERA marks for Pineda. Impressive K total (105 in 99.2 innings) for a guy who didn’t even strike out seven per nine last year. Insanely has only 13 walks in 16 starts and 20 walks in his last 29. Just doesn’t beat himself. This year he’s added the ability to get grounders as well as his ground ball rate has gone up more than 10 percent to 49.8. If his .347 BABIP regresses, and it has to, he could bring that ERA way down. Still worry about the innings. He’s never been able to put them up.

Carlos Carrasco (4.17 ERA, 2.74 xFIP)

He has 10.21 strikeouts per nine, last year the mark was 9.40, and his 1.95 walk total per nine is an exact match from last season. Like Pineda, Carlos’ BABIP is too high given his skill set at .340. Carrasco has seen his HR/F rate rise from 7.1 percent to 11.5 this season, but with a career mark of 11.3 that was expected. He’s lost a bit with the ground ball rate, he’s sitting at 48 percent right now after entering the year at 51 percent, but that could easily tick upwards as we move forward.

Danny Salazar (4.10 ERA, 2.96 xFIP)

Knowledge drop. Salazar has an elite 10.80 K/9 mark. Salazar is walking a mere 2.50 batters per nine, and for his career the mark is 2.68. He can throw a lot of pitches and fail to go deep in games, but it’s rare that he walks people despite what most seem to think about him. He’s jacked up his ground ball rate from 34 percent to 45 percent, and if he holds on to that mark moving forward that ERA will come down. Also would be nice to see his 15.3 HR/F ratio come back down a bit to the 12 percent mark he owns for his career.

James Shields (3.88 ERA, 3.21 xFIP)

Continually surprised that people are complaining to me about Shields. Why would you be doing that? Yes his ERA is elevated, but what else has gone wrong? Shields is 7-3 with a 1.27 WHIP. Solid. His 10.19 K/9 rate is a massive bump in the roughly 7.5 mark he posted the last two seasons. He’s walking more than we’re used to, but his 3.50 K/BB ratio is only a tenth of his career 3.59 mark. The 1.32 GB/FB ratio is right on his career 1.25 mark. The only thing that really stinks is that 1.37 HR/9 mark. He’s only allowed two homers his last eight outings as the homer rate has predictably regressed.

Rubby De La Rosa (4.89 ERA, 3.30 xFIP)

RDLR is only 6-4 and has a nearly five ERA. The result is a waiver-wire guy in a bunch of mixed leagues. Should that be the case? Not really unless you’ve got a very impressive pitching staff. Check out that massive difference in ERA marks above. The skills. (1) Rubby has a solid 8.18 K/9 mark. (2) Rubby is only walking 2.28 batters per nine. (3) His 3.59 K/BB ratio is impressive. (4) His 1.27 WHIP is slightly better than league average despite his struggles. (5) His 1.52 HR/9 mark is just silly. Yes he can allow the homer, but there’s no way he continues to limp along with a 19.1 percent HR/F ratio. (6) His 49.8 percent ground ball mark isn’t elite, but it’s dang solid. (7) Likely that his 68.9 left on base percentage increases as we move forward as well (73.0 for his career). Nice skill set here.

CC Sabathia (5.59 ERA, 3.50 xFIP)

I know… I don’t really trust this either. The guy can’t get righties out anymore (.322/.362/.574), and with that I don’t know how you could possible feel comfortable starting Sabathia unless it was a streaming option in a perfect matchup. He might not even be in the Yankees’ rotation after the All-Star break. OK, sometimes numbers don’t always tell the whole story.

Anibal Sanchez (4.65 ERA, 3.68 xFIP)

The only issue that concerns me most of the time with Sanchez is health. He seems healthy at the moment so I’m buying. The K-rate is down a bit at 8.01, that is until you look at his career mark and notice that it reads 7.94. He’s also walking just 2.56 per nine which has led to a solid 3.13 K/BB ratio. The 1.16 WHIP of Sanchez also points to the success he’s having despite a quick glance suggesting otherwise. Here’s the real issue. Two of them. (1) His ground ball rate is 41 percent. The mark has been at least 44 percent each of the last four seasons. (2) While allowing more fly balls than at any point in five seasons Sanchez is also saddled with a career worst 14.9 HR/F ratio. From 2010-14 the mark was 7.2 percent, literally half of where we are right now.

Alice and Wonderland is 150 years old. I’ve still never read it. Shame on me. 

GET ME OUTTA HERE

Jonathan Papelbon said the following. “The front office knows where my heart is and where my mind is,” Papelbon said. “And that’s to be with a contending ball club… I’ve always been straightforward that I want to go play for a contender and I’m not going to shy away from it.” He doesn’t want to be in Philly. He will be at the All-Star Game with a 1.65 ERA, a K per inning, and 14 saves in 14 chances. He will be dealt at some point.

Who will take over in the 9th? Ken Giles is my recommendation. He’s posted a 2.00 ERA with 44 Ks in 36 innings. He’s also allowed only one homer. Maybe a look or two will go to Jeanmar Gomez who prior to his outing Monday had a 1.59 ERA on the season. Still, a 1.32 WHIP and just 28 Ks in 41 innings don’t paint him as a shutdown option.

MINOR LEAGUERS

I know you all love rookies, so here is the Baseball America mid-season prospect list. The top hitter is Corey Seager and the top pitcher is Lucas Giolito.
 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).