DAILY TRENDS: April 4, 2016

INTRO TO DAILY TRENDS

If you’ve signed up for the Fantasy Alarm Seasonal Playbook PRO then Ray Flowers’ Daily Trends piece is part of the package. Monday through Friday, Ray will be writing an article titled “Daily Trends.” Not only will he be posting the piece on the site – for our premium subscribers only – but he will also be sending you the article to your email box thanks to the fancy-dancy technology we have at our disposal. Each day Ray will be sharing the thoughts, musings and analysis that make him one of the must reads in the world of fantasy baseball.

What does the Daily Trends piece include? Fantasy Alarm offers the DFS Playbook Pro for all your DFS needs, but Ray will also chime in each day offering a few thoughts on the day of games that lie ahead. Ray will also touch on the news of the day in the piece. Are there any players who are surging? Perhaps there are folks struggling that you thought would excel. How do you evaluate those players? Which bullpens are changing? Has there been a rookie called up? Was there an injury that forced some scrub to be vaulted into the starting lineup? Ray will break down all the pertinent moves in the world of baseball and give you direction so you can plan out your day, week and season in fantasy baseball. Basically, Ray will share with you his all his personal insights, thoughts that you will only have access to if you’re signed up with the Fantasy Alarm Seasonal Playbook PRO package.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The follow list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays. He will try to avoid the obvious, so you will rarely see the Mike Trout’s and David Price’s of the world listed.

*YANKEES vs ASTROS POSTPONED TO TUESDAY

It’s tough to find a bunch of great options as so many aces are going on the first full day of the season.

CATCHER: Buster Posey, I know I didn’t want to use a huge name, is the play. He’s Buster Posey and he’s 6-for-11 against Wily Peralta who has stunk since the start of last season.

FIRST BASE: Carlos Santana hit .268 last season with a .382 OBP against left-handed pitching. He faces lefty David Price who he has hit .310 with a .412 OBP against over 34 plate appearances.

SECOND BASE: Daniel Murphy faces Julio Teheran. Murphy has a .375/500/.562 line over 20 plate appearances in the matchup and Murphy hit .290 with a .817 OPS against righties last season. He is also a .294 career hitters versus them.

THIRD BASE: Yunel Escobar it .314 with a .376 OBP against righties last season. He’s hit .368 with a .895 OPS against Jake Arrieta over 20 plate appearances. Escobar also hit .456 this spring over 57 at-bats.

SHORTSTOP: It’s not all about BvP of course, but when we’re talking about a batter with 99 plate appearances against a hurler, you take notice. Elvis Andrus has hit .295 with a .351 OBP, not to mention with five steals, against… Felix Hernandez.

OUTFIELD: Carl Crawford should be in the lineup due to the injury to Andre Ethier. That’s good news for Crawford who has rapped out nine hits, including four doubles, in 18 at-bats against Tyson Ross leading to a .500 average and 1.313 OPS (22 plate appearances).

OUTFIELD: Carlos Gonzalez hit .301 with a .997 OPS against righties last season. He’s also hit .360 with three homers and a 1.247 OPS against Zack Greinke.

OUTFIELD: Jay Bruce faces Jeremy Hellickson who allowed 22 homers last season in 146 innings and who owns a 1.20 HR/9 mark for his career.

ASTROS 9^th INNING – DIFFERENT THAN EXPECTED

Sometimes we all get duped.

Brian McTaggert who covers the Astros for MLB stated emphatically last week that Ken Giles was the closer which I wrote about on March 30^th. He isn’t. Astros Manager A.J. Hinch announced that it won’t be Giles working the 9^th but instead the man who saved 31 games last season for the Astros – Luke Gregerson. Gregerson will be the “primary closer”, whatever the hell that means, with Giles serving as the setup man. So the Astros traded five players to get Giles, undoubtedly a more talented arm than Gregerson, and have decided to start him off in a setup role. This move smacks of a second division team, not a team that hopes to repeat last year’s success.

The Astros did exactly what I warn people all the time not to do – over valuate spring performances. So what if Giles had a 6.75 ERA in nine outings this spring. It was 9.1 innings Mr. Hinch. He only walked three guys and struck out eight, so it’s not like he was all over the place. Meanwhile, Gregerson was injured most of spring and the threw 2.1 innings. Great #SampleSize Mr. Hinch.

Outlooks…Let’s compare the work of both men last season.

The 2015 numbers show the tail of a more dominant Giles but a more effective Gregerson. It’s not insane that Hinch chose Giles. What is odd is that the team made the move to bring in Giles to be their closer, ticked off Gregerson in so doing, then let a total of less than 12 innings this spring change the decision they had made. This is why closers are so frustrating and why I’ve been championing SOLDS (saves+holds) to replace saves.

Giles is a dominant arm. Don’t give up on him unless you’re in a 10-team mixed league (even then I hesitate to let him go). Even if he somehow stick in the setup role, the guy owns a 1.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 11.75 strikeouts per nine over his first 115.2 innings. Arms like that, unless you’re on the Yankees, don’t work the 8^th inning for long.

Gregerson is a must add in all leagues that he didn’t get drafted. It’s unclear how long he will be the closer, or if he will be the full-time closer at any point (note that he’s being listed as the “primary closer.”

I would still expect Giles to lead this team in saves, but we will see how this plays out.

For more, check out this MLB.com report as HInch tries to explain how he will deploy the arms. 

ORIOLES BATTING ORDER NOTES

The Orioles will go with Manny Machado in the leadoff spot on Opening Day. I was afraid this might happen. The club doesn’t really have a better option to hit leadoff, maybe Joey Rickard if he proves himself, but look at the roster – it’s all sluggers. Machado could still there which might lead to a crap-ton of runs, but it will certainly limit his RBI chances a bit so you might have to amend your expectations for his output – perhaps re-adjust is a better word. After all, Machado hit leadoff 111 times last season so it’s not like he’s new to the spot in the batting order.

ROCKIES BATTING ORDER NOTES

DJ LeMahieu was a fantasy star last season. OK, he wasn’t, but he was damn good given that he wasn’t rostered in the majority of mixed leagues. After 150 games of action last season DJL hit .301, stole 23 bases and scored 85 runs. I’ve expressed doubts about his ability to repeat those numbers, a .362 BABIP and 26.0 percent line drive rate being unrepeatable numbers, but here’s another reason to worry about DJL in 2016 – it sounds like he could hit 8^th in the Rockies lineup. Last season DJ hit 8^th 22 times and 9^th 10 other times, but he also hit second 63 times. "It's hard to pin DJ down to one spot," manager Walt Weiss said. "He and I had this conversation this spring about hitting eighth… Your numbers are going to take a hit in that spot.” This move would be a big downer for DJL who would see his runs scored mark go down, and losing more than 100 plate appearances over the course of the season would also lessen the impact of his batting average. Keep a close eye on what the Rockies eventually do.

The final piece of this puzzle is that it sounds like the prime real estate of the 2^nd spot in the order will go to Trevor Story to begin the year. He’s hot now so I get it, but at the same I’d be very surprised if he is able to hold off DJL for that spot all year long. Heck, I don’t even know what Story’s role will be with the team, as I explained in this piece.

Keep an eye on things.

NATIONALS DEMOTE ROSS - SORTA

Joe Ross will begin the season in the bullpen for the Nationals. It’s not as bad as it sounds. Here’s why. (1) Ross hasn’t been a big innings guy to this point of his career. In 2013 he threw a total of 122.1 innings. In 2014 the number was just 121.2. In 2015 the number went up a bit though it still was rather moderate at 152.2 innings. That likely means the Nationals would like to keep his innings pitched mark somewhere around the 180 level this season. Starting him out in the bullpen will allow them to do that. (2) This is just a temporary thing. Ross is still the 5^th starter for the Nationals. They just have a lot of off days early in the year, so like the Rays, they are sheltering their 5^th starter by slotting him into the bullpen in order to keep the top-4 on normal rest.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).