BLUE JAYS GO WITH OSUNA

Drew Storen has two 25-saves seasons with a career best of 43.

Roberto Osuna has no 25 save seasons.

Storen owns a 8.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP, 1.24 GB/FB in his career.

Osuna has a 9.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.92 WHIP, 0.74 GB/FB in his career.

Storen has the experience, has the skill, and has the pedigree of success. Osuna has 69.2 innings as a big league pitcher.

I’ve said all preseason that I would roster Storen if I was playing the game of guess the closer with the Blue Jays to start the 2016 season. Turned out I was wrong as the Jays named Osuna the closer Wednesday. Let’s break it down.

1 – The Blue Jays traded Ben Revere to the Nationals in order to bring in Drew Storen to aid their bullpen. Revere is the only player in baseball to have hit .300 with 22 steals each of the last three seasons. The Jays gave up their leadoff hitter to add Storen. Of course that meant Storen would be named the closer, or so we thought. Add it all up and the Jays traded a borderline elite leadoff man for an expensive setup man. From a baseball perspective I don’t like the deal at all.

2 – Storen sulked last season when the Nationals added Jonathan Papelbon. Not only did he sulk but he also posted a 6.75 ERA after the demotion to setup man, and ultimately the frustration boiled over in September when he allowed a game winning homer to Yoenis Cespedes that ended with Storen smashing a locker and breaking his thumb.

3 – Osuna was impressive last season, you can see the numbers above, so this isn’t a ‘Osuna is no good’ commentary. I’m merely pointing out that it would seem if a team is going to deal it’s leadoff man to add a veteran, who has had 9th inning success, who flipped out last season when he was demoted, you would think that the added reliever would be closing. By the way, Osuna will be making $507,500 to close while Storen will take his $8.375 million deal to the 8th inning.

From the fantasy angle you drop Storen way down the rankings, barely even rosterable in mixed leagues is he, and you have to think that Osuna has a very good chance to replicate the success he flashed last season in the 9th inning. The only question is – how much rope will Osuna get if he struggles since Storen is sitting there? Some teams don’t have a real option to turn to in the 9th if there are problems with their closer. Teams don’t have a 28 year old, former 43 save closer waiting in the wings like the Jays do.

Here's some audio from SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio of me discussing the situation.

Follow this link to check out the entire Player Profile Series.

HOUSTON GOES WITH… GILES?

The Houston Astros have not, as of this writing, named Ken Giles their closer. In fact, word from the team seemingly continues to leave the situation as a bit nebulous. Here is what Astros’ manager A.J. Hinch had to say about the 9th inning.

"I'm trying to deflate some of the eagerness of status," Hinch said. "I'd like our bullpen to be good and I'd like all of them to embrace pitching to help us win, which they do. We will line it up accordingly like most people are accustomed to it. It doesn't mean the same guy is going to get the save all the time."

Still more.

"Ideally we all know our place in the world and have the ability to prepare for the role in which we're asked to do. Likely (I name one), yes," Hinch said. "I don't see it as an end-all, be-all moment. I think it can change. In the first road game in the ninth inning of a tie game, whoever I bring in could very well be our closer. I just choose to use him in a non-closing situation."

Well that certainly clarifies things now doesn’t it. Here is what we know.

Luke Gregerson is finally healthy after dealing with an intercostal strain. Luke also pitched very well last season for the Astros racking up a career best 31 saves in 36 chances. Gregerson, who had never had more than nine saves before, enters his 32 year old season coming off an effort that included a 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.70 strikeouts per nine and 1.48 walks per nine. He also had a career best 60.4 percent ground ball rate.

Ken Giles is younger at 25, and he has dominated at the big league level. Last year he had a 1.80 ERA and 15 saves in 17 chances after Jonathan Papelbon was dealt away, and over his last 20 outings he had a 1.21 ERA and, 27 punchouts in 22.1 innings. He’s got great stuff. However, he’s struggled this spring. Over eight outings Giles has just six strikeouts and has allowed 11 hits leading to a 7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. That’s making folks a bit nervous. Still, don’t forget that Giles came to the Astros in a big time seven player deal that clearly suggested that the team wanted Giles to work the 9th inning. "It's a high price to pay, but we do feel like in order to take the next step next year and get back and win the division and go further in the playoffs, we needed to continue to improve the bullpen," general manager Jeff Luhnow said at the time the deal was consumated. 

So what to do? I’m still suggesting roster Giles well ahead of Gregerson in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide Rankings. There’s also the word of beat writer Brian McTaggart who, in no uncertain terms, answered two questions on Twitter Wednesday morning unequivocally. In one, and then a second post, this is what Brian wrote: “GILES IS THE CLOSER!” I didn’t add the caps, those come from Brian. At the same time, you might want to read this report too. Giles has dropped in the rankings a bit but I still have him as a top-20 reliever, though it wouldn’t be the dumbest thing every if you “handcuffed” Giles with Gregerson.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).