Last week’s picks were all over the spectrum with good and bad. Sabathia was bad. Morton was great. Folty was awesome (please raise his ownership), etc. So much typing has been done with these hands lately (check out the NFL draft guide content by everyone involved with Fantasy Alarm) that I may have carpal tunnel (yes I had to check the spelling on that). So let’s dive right in to Week 18, shall we?

10-12 Team Leagues

Trevor Cahill (KC): If you recall prior to the All-Star Break Cahill was mentioned as someone to keep an eye on because he could be on the trading block headed to a better team. Well the Royals have found their groove after struggling out of the gate. Currently they’ve won 9-straight games and sit two games behind Cleveland in the division standings. Cahill makes his debut for the Royals on Saturday against the Red Sox who are struggling to develop any offense. The move to the AL may see his overall numbers inflate a little as he’s no long throwing to pitchers in the batter’s box, but Cahill is definitely worth streaming next week against Seattle at home.

Kevin Gausman (BAL): The fact that he isn’t recommended as the desperation play is a true testament to how rough the streaming options are this week. What’s even more surprising is that he’s hovering around the 50% cutoff. In 4 of his last 6 starts he’s allowed 1 earned run or less. Now the caveat to that is in the other two games he gave up 5 earned runs or more in both starts. But since Buck Showalter hinted that Gausman could be sent down to the minors if the didn’t perform better he’s generated 16 K’s over 12 innings of work and blanked both offenses he’s faced.

The walks are a bit of a concern, but batters aren’t making contact with his fastball as much as they used to. Recently his fastball has been averaging around 95.7 mph, which is a full mile per hours faster than where it was earlier in the year when he has having his struggles. Opponents have a miss-rate of 35.9% over the last 30 days (4th out of 174 qualified SP’s) and he draws the Rangers on the road Saturday. If he does well he can be used next week against the Tigers who have currently lost 2 of their last 9 and are clear sellers at this point in the season.

Charlie Morton (HOU): How’s this for a fantasy baseball team name: Charlie Morton’s WAR(?) … Get it? It’s a play on the movie Charlie Wilson’s War and WAR is a baseball stat…. Tough crowd. Moving on then! Morton turned out to be one of the better suggestions in last week’s piece so you might as well strike while the iron is hot. Despite Houston’s ridiculous offense, Minute Maid Park is considered one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball based on run production. This could bode well for Morton who faces the Rays at home next week.

Over the last 30 days LHH’s are hitting just .067 off Morton (1st out of 114 qualified SP’s) and Morton’s allowed an OBP of just .173 over that span as well (also good for 1st out of 121 qualified SP’s). Opposing teams have an OPS of .242 with their heart of the order against Morton and you guessed it; that ranks 1st out of 151 SP’s. Why is this important? Well for Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, and Brad Miller it could mean trouble. All 4 are lefties and all of them typically bat towards the top of the lineup or at least towards the real meat of the lineup.

You can stream Morton with confidence next week and even use him in DFS if the price is right. Double check the Rays lineup when it comes out to see that there are southpaws in the lineup. For his 2nd start against the Blue Jays, you should proceed with a little more caution as the Jays might throw out a righty-heavy lineup against Morton.

Zach Davies (MIL): Davies has earned a ‘W’ in 5 of his last 6 starts. He doesn’t get the notoriety and attention largely because his ERA isn’t very good and he doesn’t strike many people out. But surprisingly enough he holds a 12-4 record. Over his last two outings on the road against Pittsburgh and Washington he’s pitched 14.2 innings of scoreless baseball. He may be getting a little lucky as suggested by his 4.74 FIP and the fact that since Memorial Day Weekend he’s had five starts where he gave up 3 earned runs or more and he’s only lost 1 of those games. He draws the Cubs on Sunday, but then gets a road start against Tampa. Davis is a MUCH better pitcher away from Miller Park so he’s in play next week. Check out his splits below:

 

AVG

OBP

SLG

ERA

wOBA

BABIP

Home

.308

.377

.514

6.45

.378

.353

Road

.253

.318

.408

2.80

.312

.270

Desperation Play of the Week… Jhoulys Chacin (SD): It’s almost laughable, but for the 3rd week in a row Chacin is the Despo Play. He’s almost a guy that you can stream with confidence, but people like to point out he’s prone to getting lit up. From April 3rd to May 23rd Chacin had 3 outings where he gave up 7 runs or more. Those numbers inflated his 5.74 ERA. Every other start over that span he gave up 3 earned runs or fewer. Now since that awful start on May 23rd Chacin hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 11 starts and he holds a 3.00 ERA over that span. He gets the Twins at home next week. It’s an okay matchup, but Chacin’s been flying under the radar most of the season and has been very good at home.

Deeper League Options

Brent Suter (MIL): Suter might be available in your deeper league. He’s below 25% owned roughly so it’s not a guarantee he’s there in deeper leagues. Since moving to the rotation the soft-throwing lefty has done pretty well and hasn’t been lit up. In 30 innings of work he’s given up just 5 earned runs and surrendered 1 home run. He has 25 K’s to just 5 walks. He’s a very efficient pitcher that won’t light up the stat sheet, but his K:BB ratio and quality start potential could put you in a nice position. Against the heart of the order over the last 30 days Suter has allowed an OPS of just .343, which is 2nd out of 151 qualified SP’s.

Jaime Garcia (MIN): It’s unknown right now if Garcia will even get another start with the Twins. He pitched well on Friday night in his debut with the team, and is slated for a start next week against Texas. But he is apparently still on the trading block and could be on the move again before the deadline. His numbers on Friday won’t blow anyone away by any means, but he’s an intriguing option next week against a Rangers team that is slashing a putrid .217/.288/.400 on the road in 2017.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD): Ryu returned from a foot injury and pitched 5 innings in a no-decision and gave up 2 earned runs. He rarely goes deep into games so this is almost a streaming option with win potential. The Dodgers are 11-2 since the All-Star Break and Ryu is slated to go up against the struggling Zack Wheeler. Ryu will only need to get through 5 innings and if he gets run support he could lock in a win for you team.

Desperation Play of the Week is… Seth Lugo (NYM): This is one of those “like the player, not the matchup” scenarios as Lugo gets a home start against the Dodgers next Friday. Lugo has been subject to some trade rumors (mostly involving the Cubs), but it would be pretty surprising to see the Mets part ways with him especially since he’s under contract for a few more years and the team just acquired A.J. Ramos. He does pitch a little better at home as evidenced below:

 

AVG

OBP

SLG

ERA

wOBA

WHIP

BABIP

Home

.234

.293

.427

3.15

.304

1.15

.298

Road

.296

.345

.434

4.68

.333

1.47

,307

The splits don’t show a drastic separation, but he’s clearly more comfortable pitching at Citi Field. He’ll definitely be worth taking a chance on in GPP’s for DFS if you don’t want to start him in your season-long league.