Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Thursday’s MLB slate features 9 games on the schedule. We have some afternoon baseball and plenty of ways to go for MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

The MLB picks below are accurate as of this writing, but some odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/21

Our MLB Best Bets Today feature the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Houston Astros in a possible pitcher’s duel. Plus, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox renew their rivalry with a big series opener on tap. Don’t miss more MLB picks and player props below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Thursday’s baseball action. 

 

 


 

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Predictions: Thursday, August 21st

The Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles start up a four-game series tonight. We just saw these squads face off last weekend, with the O’s taking two of three on the road. Now the head-to-head matchups switch to Baltimore. 

Astros starter Jason Alexander has been productive since joining the team in June. He owns a 2.63 ERA over 7 games (6 starts) with Houston. That includes a 1.59 ERA over his past 4 starts, and just 2 earned runs allowed over his past 3 outings combined. 

Alexander tossed 6 shutout innings against the Yankees and Marlins to begin August, and then he held the Orioles to 2 runs over 6 strong frames last week. It appears he’s found a groove in Houston’s rotation. The right-hander’s current form is much better than his season-long 4.74 ERA indicates. 

As noted, Alexander just had success against Baltimore last time out. He exploited an offense that’s struggling against right-handed pitching lately. Over the past two weeks vs. righties, the Orioles have a .286 wOBA (286h in MLB) and .207 batting average (29th). 

On the other side, we have Brandon Young on the mound for Baltimore. The rookie just took a perfect game into the 8th inning against the Astros last week. Can he replicate that success again today? Well, his 5.68 ERA this year isn’t exactly encouraging. 

However, Young has been effective more often than not lately. He owns a 3.32 ERA and 3.49 FIP over his past 4 starts. That includes those 8 shutout innings vs. Houston and 6 innings of 2-run ball against the Blue Jays. Plus, his 4.20 xERA and 4.30 xFIP suggest some more positive regression could be coming. 

Young gets a favorable home matchup here. The Astros’ offense is slumping, averaging just 1.5 runs over the past 8 games. They’ve also scored only 2 total runs over the past 4 games combined. Houston has especially been bad against right-handed pitching over the past week, with a .190 wOBA (30th in MLB) and .141 batting average (30th). 

Let’s grab some unders in this series opener between the Astros and Orioles. The total is inflated because of the perceived weaker starting pitchers. Yet, both Young and Alexander bring upside with their current forms and respective matchups. 

 

 


 

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Predictions: Thursday, August 21st

The AL Wild Card race is heating up, and this particular series carries a ton of weight heading into the weekend. The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are separated by just 1.5 games in the standings as they begin a crucial four-game series tonight. Let’s see how to bet on Thursday’s matchup. 

Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito has a decent 3.63 ERA this season with some impressive outings lately. Yet, he’s too volatile to trust. The right-hander still has a 4.19 ERA and 5.65 FIP over his past 6 starts. He’s also struggled on the road recently, allowing 4+ runs in 3 of his last 4 road starts. 

On that note, Giolito’s 4.82 FIP on the road this year is concerning. Then there’s the fact that his 5.27 xERA and 4.30 FIP are both notably higher than his current 3.63 ERA. Negative regression could be looming for a guy who’s shown some cracks on the road over the past month. He has a rough 6.30 ERA over his past 4 road starts. 

Now the Boston righty has to face a potent New York offense that’s crushing the split right now. Over the past week vs. right-handers, the Yankees have a .384 wOBA, 149 wRC+, .241 ISO, and 14.5% walk rate. They’re also averaging 7.4 runs over the past 8 games. It’s a tough spot for Giolito, who has a 4.85 ERA in 5 career starts against the Yanks. 

With some run support, Yankees starter Luis Gil can be effective enough on the other side. The righty has mixed results across 3 starts since returning to the rotation. Gil looked shaky in his season debut, allowing 5 runs to the Marlins. He’s calmed down over his past two outings, though, with a 2.53 ERA over 10.2 combined innings. 

That’s more like the reigning AL Rookie of the Year. We saw Gil’s upside last season when he posted a 2.03 ERA over his first 14 starts and a 3.14 ERA over his first 27 outings (before some late-season hiccups). He has the stuff to limit a Boston lineup that’s been below league-average vs. righties over the past two weeks (.302 wOBA, 88 wRC+). 

Besides all of the above stats, the Yankees should be plenty motivated to start this series strong – in addition to rivalry bragging rights. The Red Sox have gone 5-1 against the Yanks so far this season. Plus, New York is trending in the right direction with 7 wins in the past 8 games. Conversely, Boston is cold with a 3-7 record over the last 10 contests. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 8/21

 

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