Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

As the MLB Trade Deadline comes and goes today, let’s find some winning MLB picks. Thursday’s MLB slate features only three games on the schedule. Even so, we have MLB predictions locked and loaded. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

The MLB picks below are accurate as of this writing, but some odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/31

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with the Thursday matinee meeting between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. Plus, we dive into an AL West matchup as the Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Thursday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Predictions: Thursday, July 31st

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees wrap up their four-game series with a Thursday afternoon matchup. These divisional rivals are both battling for positioning in the fluid AL Wild Card race. Let’s break down today’s series finale. 

Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has a 3.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, while being up and down start to start. The righty has been more consistent over the past two months, though, with a 2.96 ERA over his last 12 starts. He’s allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 8 of his past 12 outings as well. 

Pepiot has also been solid on the road. He has a 3.35 ERA and a .216 batting average allowed in away starts so far. Besides one bad road outing at Baltimore in June, he owns a 2.70 ERA over his other 8 road starts.

The Tampa right-hander will face a Yankees offense that’s struggled in the split lately. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees have just a .210 batting average vs. righties (28th in MLB) with a 96 wRC+ (24th) and 24.5% K rate (22nd). Plus, the lineup simply isn’t as dangerous with Aaron Judge sidelined right now. 

On the other side, Marcus Stroman starts for New York. The righty has a rough 6.09 ERA in 8 starts this season. He also got knocked around for 4 runs in 3.2 innings against the Phillies last time out. Yet, he can still be effective today. 

Before that last outing, Stroman was much better. He had a 3.00 ERA over his previous 4 starts since re-joining the Yankees’ rotation in late June. The veteran looked rejuvenated on the mound. So, let’s hope that the past start against Philly was just a hiccup. 

Stroman will face a Rays offense with subpar road numbers this season, with a .300 wOBA (24th in MLB) and 91 wRC+ (24th). Tampa has also been slightly below-average against righties since the All-Star break, with a .313 wOBA (22nd) and 100 wRC+ (24th).

Let’s bank on a low-scoring contest as Pepiot and Stroman do enough to limit both offenses. Plus, the scoring could be suppressed in a getaway day game right ahead of the Trade Deadline. Take the under for the full game and first five innings. 

 

 

 

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Predictions: Thursday, July 31st

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are both in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, with the latter already busy at the Trade Deadline. These divisional opponents now start up a massive four-game series on Thursday night. Instead of picking a side here, let’s look at the total. 

Mariners starter George Kirby has just a 4.50 ERA this season, but the arrow is pointing up for the right-hander. He owns a 3.06 ERA and 2.69 FIP over his past 6 starts. He’s also allowed 2 runs or fewer in 7 of his last 10 starts with a 3.14 FIP in this stretch. 

Kirby had some rough outings in May after returning from the Injured List, but he’s been much more effective and consistent over the last two months. The Seattle righty owns a career-high 25.0% strikeout rate this year with a 5.9% walk rate (84th percentile) as well. 

We should expect a good outing from Kirby at home here. He owns a career 3.11 ERA when pitching in Seattle. He also has an elite 1.15 ERA in 9 career starts against the Rangers. This is an opponent he’s regularly owned. 

The Rangers have subpar season-long numbers against right-handed pitching, with a .305 wOBA (25th in MLB) and .236 batting average (26th). Since the All-Star break, Texas is batting just .232 vs. righties (26th). 

Meanwhile, Rangers starter Kumar Rocker can also limit the Seattle lineup. His 5.73 ERA this season doesn’t offer much confidence, but the right-hander has been better lately. Since re-joining the rotation in June, he’s allowed 2 runs or fewer in 5 of 7 outings. 

Rocker faced the Mariners a month ago and pitched 6 strong innings, allowing 2 runs with 6 strikeouts. Yes, the Seattle lineup now includes Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. Still, the Mariners have been terrible vs. righties since the break with a .198 BA (30th), .259 wOBA (30th), and 26.4% K rate (28th). We’ll see how much Suarez impacts things right away. 

It also helps that behind Rocker, the Texas bullpen has a 3.04 ERA over the past month. Let’s take the under for the full game and first five innings. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 7/31

 

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